4 ms·
Like any metric, it's not perfect, but there's a lot of good information there. Dota added a win prediction graph a while back that's been valuable to look at.
by sdwr 6y ago
Like any metric, it's not perfect, but there's a lot of good information there.
Dota added a win prediction graph a while back that's been valuable to look at. It's not really a black box, because you can see the win % change over time and get a feel for what it's weighting. For example, it takes character selection into account, and the initial prediction can get to 60/40 before the game even starts.
The bit that I found the most interesting is when the prediction doesn't line up with my intuition of the game state. I've had a couple of comebacks from a predicted 1% win chance, and all those felt more like 20-30% comebacks, where we were down but definitely not out. A map is not the territory, and that's easiest to see when you fall off the edge of the map.
- ZephyrBlu 6y agoI'm aware of Dota's win prediction chart. Do you know about STRATZ? They also have a win probability chart on their website as well as predictions for each hero in the game. In their Discord, different people have asked the same questions about these "win probability" values multiple times because often they're very unintuitive (Because they are not actually probabilities). > It's not really a black box, because you can see the win % change over time and get a feel for what it's weighting If it wasn't a black box you would know why it's weighted at a particular value. I think it's mostly a curiosity and not that helpful if you're trying to analyze your games.