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> All current data shows areas that have taken that approach are significantly better off today than the places that hid in a hole the past year. Source? I'd

> All current data shows areas that have taken that approach are significantly better off today than the places that hid in a hole the past year. Source? I'd argue current data shows that those that showed an overabundance of caution, like New Zealand, are the ones significantly better off than everyone else.

war1025 6y ago
> like New Zealand, You mean an island nation with strict control over their ports and borders?
- Spivak 6y ago
  And had mandatory lockdowns
  - throwaway894345 6y ago
    Mandatory lockdowns make a lot more sense when you’re an island nation that can plausibly eradicate the disease. You reasonably can expect a month of pain and then resume business as usual, but the America’s, Europe, and Asian enjoy no such hope.
    - Spivak 6y ago
      I know! Which is why it’s silly to use NZ as an example of anything.
  - war1025 6y ago
    Mandatory lockdowns are like cancer surgery. They can be very effective if everything is still localized, but if the cancer has already metastasized, it really doesn't solve the problem.
    - Spivak 6y ago
      I’m not saying it would actually solve anything in the US, only that you can’t just say “look NZ resumed business as usual — the US should too!” because the situations are not at all similar.
- throwaway894345 6y ago
  Not sure why this is downvoted; it’s absolutely correct. European, Asian, and North/South American supply chains are internally integrated. A truck driver transports goods from the Czech Republic to France and unloads them at the destination. For New Zealand it’s not like the ship’s crew is unloading goods at the last mile. A similar effect is at play in Hawaii, but the latter can’t deny entry to US residents because unlike New Zealand it isn’t a sovereign nation.
  - yorwba 6y ago
    > European, Asian, and North/South American supply chains are internally integrated. A truck driver transports goods from the Czech Republic to France and unloads them at the destination. But does that truck driver need to have direct contact with other people to do their job? Why can't they unload their cargo, sleep at a quarantine facility, and then drive a new truckload in the opposite direction, without an opportunity to infect anyone else? Also, island nations still have internal traffic. What's different about the borders between parts of Australia that allowed them to be closed when European borders had to stay open?
    - throwaway894345 6y ago
      > Island nations still have internal traffic Internal traffic among 4 million people is a much easier problem than traffic among a continent of 800 million people. > But does that truck driver need to have direct contact with other people to do their job? I’m sure there are better ways to do things, but truck drivers often unload shipments, confirm receipts, etc and they still need to visit truck stops and restaurants for supplies, food, etc. > Why can't they unload their cargo, sleep at a quarantine facility, and then drive a new truckload in the opposite direction, without an opportunity to infect anyone else? Quarantining between shipments would mean drivers are mostly idle, driving the cost of shipping through the roof. Changing supply contracts so drivers exchange cargo at the border requires completely reworking highly optimized logistics networks and isn’t going to happen in a few years, certainly not by fiat from some bureaucrat or politician that has no experience in logistics.
throwaway894345 6y ago
New Zealand’s results are largely due to it being a small, isolated nation. Hawaii similarly enjoys the fewest COVID cases per capita of the US.
- mynameisvlad 6y ago
  Hawaii, the only state that requires a COVID test within 36 hours of flying there? I mean, of course they'd have the lowest cases per capita when they're the only ones actively refusing entry to those who have it.
  - throwaway894345 6y ago
    How many entry points does Hawaii have compared to the average state? How do those points of entry compare in terms of staff and systems to operate those restrictions? Hawaii gets a lot more mileage out of its restrictions than Iowa is going to do. We can acknowledge these differences without conceding that restrictions aren’t worth the squeeze; it just means that New Zealand isn’t a good reference point.
    - ghaff 6y ago
      A fair number of states did have travel restrictions in place but there were oodles of exceptions and AFAIK no real enforcement although it probably did limit cross-border travel some.
      - throwaway894345 6y ago
        Right, but if all states had a handful of ports of entry manned by TSA who could enforce those restrictions and supply chains that were already inadvertently optimized to prevent disease transmission, then the US would probably look a lot more like New Zealand!
        ghaff 6y ago
        And if I looked like an eagle I could flap my wings and fly. We didn't even shutdown widespread commercial traffic between the US and Canada (although otherwise travel was largely shut down).

war1025 6y ago

> like New Zealand, You mean an island nation with strict control over their ports and borders?

Spivak 6y ago
And had mandatory lockdowns
- throwaway894345 6y ago
  Mandatory lockdowns make a lot more sense when you’re an island nation that can plausibly eradicate the disease. You reasonably can expect a month of pain and then resume business as usual, but the America’s, Europe, and Asian enjoy no such hope.
  - Spivak 6y ago
    I know! Which is why it’s silly to use NZ as an example of anything.
- war1025 6y ago
  Mandatory lockdowns are like cancer surgery. They can be very effective if everything is still localized, but if the cancer has already metastasized, it really doesn't solve the problem.
  - Spivak 6y ago
    I’m not saying it would actually solve anything in the US, only that you can’t just say “look NZ resumed business as usual — the US should too!” because the situations are not at all similar.
throwaway894345 6y ago
Not sure why this is downvoted; it’s absolutely correct. European, Asian, and North/South American supply chains are internally integrated. A truck driver transports goods from the Czech Republic to France and unloads them at the destination. For New Zealand it’s not like the ship’s crew is unloading goods at the last mile. A similar effect is at play in Hawaii, but the latter can’t deny entry to US residents because unlike New Zealand it isn’t a sovereign nation.
- yorwba 6y ago
  > European, Asian, and North/South American supply chains are internally integrated. A truck driver transports goods from the Czech Republic to France and unloads them at the destination. But does that truck driver need to have direct contact with other people to do their job? Why can't they unload their cargo, sleep at a quarantine facility, and then drive a new truckload in the opposite direction, without an opportunity to infect anyone else? Also, island nations still have internal traffic. What's different about the borders between parts of Australia that allowed them to be closed when European borders had to stay open?
  - throwaway894345 6y ago
    > Island nations still have internal traffic Internal traffic among 4 million people is a much easier problem than traffic among a continent of 800 million people. > But does that truck driver need to have direct contact with other people to do their job? I’m sure there are better ways to do things, but truck drivers often unload shipments, confirm receipts, etc and they still need to visit truck stops and restaurants for supplies, food, etc. > Why can't they unload their cargo, sleep at a quarantine facility, and then drive a new truckload in the opposite direction, without an opportunity to infect anyone else? Quarantining between shipments would mean drivers are mostly idle, driving the cost of shipping through the roof. Changing supply contracts so drivers exchange cargo at the border requires completely reworking highly optimized logistics networks and isn’t going to happen in a few years, certainly not by fiat from some bureaucrat or politician that has no experience in logistics.

throwaway894345 6y ago

New Zealand’s results are largely due to it being a small, isolated nation. Hawaii similarly enjoys the fewest COVID cases per capita of the US.

mynameisvlad 6y ago
Hawaii, the only state that requires a COVID test within 36 hours of flying there? I mean, of course they'd have the lowest cases per capita when they're the only ones actively refusing entry to those who have it.
- throwaway894345 6y ago
  How many entry points does Hawaii have compared to the average state? How do those points of entry compare in terms of staff and systems to operate those restrictions? Hawaii gets a lot more mileage out of its restrictions than Iowa is going to do. We can acknowledge these differences without conceding that restrictions aren’t worth the squeeze; it just means that New Zealand isn’t a good reference point.
  - ghaff 6y ago
    A fair number of states did have travel restrictions in place but there were oodles of exceptions and AFAIK no real enforcement although it probably did limit cross-border travel some.
    - throwaway894345 6y ago
      Right, but if all states had a handful of ports of entry manned by TSA who could enforce those restrictions and supply chains that were already inadvertently optimized to prevent disease transmission, then the US would probably look a lot more like New Zealand!
      - ghaff 6y ago
        And if I looked like an eagle I could flap my wings and fly. We didn't even shutdown widespread commercial traffic between the US and Canada (although otherwise travel was largely shut down).