4 ms·

What is the probability of nuclear war? [Martin E. Hellman, Vinton G. Cerf]

3 points by samizdis 6y ago

simonblack 6y ago
The US is being pushed by two reinforcing doctrines, the Thucydides Trap and the Wolfowitz Doctrine, to forcibly prevent any other entity from becoming equal to, or stronger than, the US. In other words to prevent the loss of remaining the 'Exceptional and Indispensible Nation'. Other entities include Europe, Russia,and China. Of those three entities, only China has any chance at present of overtaking the US. Russia has less power than the USSR had, and Europe is subservient to the US even though they have the potential of being intrinsically greater. China, with greater population and manufacturing power than the US, merely has to keep developing at its current rate to overtake the US within very few years. In other words, any war would actually slow them down so in the meantime they speak softly while they continually grow their big stick. The US, if it does nothing, has only the inevitable prospect of being relegated to number two in the very near future unless they actively initiate a war with China. In fact for the US, which is declining rapidly in relative terms, the sooner the war starts the more likely it is that the US will be victorious. With the above in mind, it's been almost fascinating to see the scenario playing out in the real world over the five years or so since I realised what's going to happen. The US has missed its chance. It should have started that war at least a year ago. It will initiate that war quite soon, but China has now too much industrial power and military to be beaten. I don't see the nuclear part of the war to happen immediately, but after a couple of years, when the US realises that it finally has no chance of overcoming China it will resort to nukes. There will be MAD, even if the Russians stay out of it. China has sufficient nukes, even at a lowly 3-400, to destroy the US. For History buffs, I see the next big war being similar in appearance to WW2, in that the seemingly invincible armed forces of the initiating country (Germany in WW2, US in WW3) after a year or two of running rampant will gradually be ground down by the greater man-power and industrial capacity of the attacked country (USSR in WW2, China in WW3). To most Americans under the age of about 50, and who have never personally experienced a time when American was not Number One, the above will seem like fantasy. Just like the population of the previous Superpower, Great Britain, could not imagine anything sweeping away Britain and its Royal Navy in 1910, just before WW1.

3 points by samizdis 6y ago

The US is being pushed by two reinforcing doctrines, the Thucydides Trap and the Wolfowitz Doctrine, to forcibly prevent any other entity from becoming equal to, or stronger than, the US. In other words to prevent the loss of remaining the 'Exceptional and Indispensible Nation'. Other entities include Europe, Russia,and China. Of those three entities, only China has any chance at present of overtaking the US. Russia has less power than the USSR had, and Europe is subservient to the US even though they have the potential of being intrinsically greater. China, with greater population and manufacturing power than the US, merely has to keep developing at its current rate to overtake the US within very few years. In other words, any war would actually slow them down so in the meantime they speak softly while they continually grow their big stick. The US, if it does nothing, has only the inevitable prospect of being relegated to number two in the very near future unless they actively initiate a war with China. In fact for the US, which is declining rapidly in relative terms, the sooner the war starts the more likely it is that the US will be victorious. With the above in mind, it's been almost fascinating to see the scenario playing out in the real world over the five years or so since I realised what's going to happen. The US has missed its chance. It should have started that war at least a year ago. It will initiate that war quite soon, but China has now too much industrial power and military to be beaten. I don't see the nuclear part of the war to happen immediately, but after a couple of years, when the US realises that it finally has no chance of overcoming China it will resort to nukes. There will be MAD, even if the Russians stay out of it. China has sufficient nukes, even at a lowly 3-400, to destroy the US. For History buffs, I see the next big war being similar in appearance to WW2, in that the seemingly invincible armed forces of the initiating country (Germany in WW2, US in WW3) after a year or two of running rampant will gradually be ground down by the greater man-power and industrial capacity of the attacked country (USSR in WW2, China in WW3). To most Americans under the age of about 50, and who have never personally experienced a time when American was not Number One, the above will seem like fantasy. Just like the population of the previous Superpower, Great Britain, could not imagine anything sweeping away Britain and its Royal Navy in 1910, just before WW1.