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Why do you think it's unreasonable to interpret the value function as probability? I think chess engines don't do it because of draws, but you could look at a c
by TylerLives 6y ago
Why do you think it's unreasonable to interpret the value function as probability? I think chess engines don't do it because of draws, but you could look at a chess position and estimate what are your chances of winning/drawing/losing.
- ZephyrBlu 6y agoIf the probability of winning was static I would agree that the evaluation function is (Or can be) a prediction of win probability. However, because the probability of winning is clearly dynamic over time, trying to predict that probability is inherently a future prediction of the outcome (I.e. a forecast) rather than the prediction of a value. In that case, it does not make sense to view the evaluation function as probability because a forecast is not the same thing as a probability. I'm looking at this from the perspective of the game. From the perspective of any given state in isolation I agree that it makes perfect sense, but in the context of a game it doesn't. This is why I think that plotting all these values on a chart together and calling it "win probability" is non-sensical. It does give you an idea of the game state, but it's not a probability.