4 ms·

"how can a reunification not be inevitable?" - for a contrasting example, look at Koreas; the same arguments you list apply also there, and at least there reuni

"how can a reunification not be inevitable?" - for a contrasting example, look at Koreas; the same arguments you list apply also there, and at least there reunification does not seem inevitable; and with every generation of separation the ties grow weaker.

_ph_ 6y ago
Well, assuming of course, the regime which holds its population hostage, fails. Which happened in eastern Germany. Of course, if the countries had stayed separate for 100 years, anything might happen. With Korea, it depends on how long the north keeps the border closed and if and how the regime fails.
- pndy 6y ago
  It's not the same situation and I think it's hard to believe it will ever be - it only on the surface seems to be similar because it involves two countries of different systems that are bonded by same culture, history and language up until the split. The details matter; the German unification was a result, as you may remember, of the Autumn of Nations revolution that lead to fall of the Eastern Bloc and Soviet Union; the situation was building up for over 10 years if not more - some consider the Chernobyl disaster as being the first domino piece that fell down, some the strikes and emergence of 'Solidarność' movement in Poland or even 1968' Prague Spring. North Korea is alone on the playground and at best is being supported by People's Republic of China, economically and politically (to some degree); it holds power in a good grip, the propaganda machine and control of citizens life works there very well - at least from what we know. There's simply no possibility for opposition movements to exist and even be strong enough to question the Kims power and images as leaders. I'd rather expect that China would eventually incorporate North as another province rather than South deciding for the unification which certainly would have some harsh social and economical outcome. The differences between these countries seems to be too big to just dismantle DMZ and become one happy Korea with population of ~76mln. Still, it's a wild guess and anything might happen.
  - magicsmoke 6y ago
    North Koreans are very nationalistic and would never accept a Chinese annexation, and South Korea would very likely join the conflict against China annexing ethnically Korean populations and lands. Nothing like identity politics to rile up the population and topple some politicians. It's far more likely that SK eventually ejects US military bases from their country and SK and NK work towards a loosening of borders and increased economic ties with Chinese acknowledgement but still wary of Chinese interference in the process. Especially considering the shifting power balance in Asia, having US military bases will eventually be more of a liability than a benefit for SK.
MichaelMoser123 6y ago
the GDR was much more liberal than the DPRK (North Korea), In north korea you got some 300,000 people in concentration camps, they also had real famines - and that didn't move the rulers an inch. Also the GDR was a sattelite state of the SU; The GDR couldn't possibly continue as they were about to default on foreign loans, and the SU was about to follow soon. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prisons_in_North_Korea https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prisons_in_North_Korea https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korean_famine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korean_famine

_ph_ 6y ago

Well, assuming of course, the regime which holds its population hostage, fails. Which happened in eastern Germany. Of course, if the countries had stayed separate for 100 years, anything might happen. With Korea, it depends on how long the north keeps the border closed and if and how the regime fails.

pndy 6y ago
It's not the same situation and I think it's hard to believe it will ever be - it only on the surface seems to be similar because it involves two countries of different systems that are bonded by same culture, history and language up until the split. The details matter; the German unification was a result, as you may remember, of the Autumn of Nations revolution that lead to fall of the Eastern Bloc and Soviet Union; the situation was building up for over 10 years if not more - some consider the Chernobyl disaster as being the first domino piece that fell down, some the strikes and emergence of 'Solidarność' movement in Poland or even 1968' Prague Spring. North Korea is alone on the playground and at best is being supported by People's Republic of China, economically and politically (to some degree); it holds power in a good grip, the propaganda machine and control of citizens life works there very well - at least from what we know. There's simply no possibility for opposition movements to exist and even be strong enough to question the Kims power and images as leaders. I'd rather expect that China would eventually incorporate North as another province rather than South deciding for the unification which certainly would have some harsh social and economical outcome. The differences between these countries seems to be too big to just dismantle DMZ and become one happy Korea with population of ~76mln. Still, it's a wild guess and anything might happen.
- magicsmoke 6y ago
  North Koreans are very nationalistic and would never accept a Chinese annexation, and South Korea would very likely join the conflict against China annexing ethnically Korean populations and lands. Nothing like identity politics to rile up the population and topple some politicians. It's far more likely that SK eventually ejects US military bases from their country and SK and NK work towards a loosening of borders and increased economic ties with Chinese acknowledgement but still wary of Chinese interference in the process. Especially considering the shifting power balance in Asia, having US military bases will eventually be more of a liability than a benefit for SK.

MichaelMoser123 6y ago

the GDR was much more liberal than the DPRK (North Korea), In north korea you got some 300,000 people in concentration camps, they also had real famines - and that didn't move the rulers an inch. Also the GDR was a sattelite state of the SU; The GDR couldn't possibly continue as they were about to default on foreign loans, and the SU was about to follow soon. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prisons_in_North_Korea https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prisons_in_North_Korea https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korean_famine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korean_famine