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I think the one thing going for Tesla is early mover advantage - they have figured out what it takes to build EVs at scale and eventually make a profit out of i

I think the one thing going for Tesla is early mover advantage - they have figured out what it takes to build EVs at scale and eventually make a profit out of it with a 5 year head-start. In their battery day video, they talk about how they're optimizing every last detail of their tech. They're not just focused on automobile design - they are focused on capital efficiency of their factories. They also have an insane amount of cash to operate at lower margins for an extended period if the market becomes too hot. The competition is coming but they will probably find it difficult to compete with Tesla on price.

KingOfCoders 6y ago
I don't own a car, never have, never will, so take everything with you know what. "5 year head-start." I can't see this at work. It seems the VW ID.3 is outselling Tesla Model 3 in some markets (though we need to see when production is ramped up and pre-orders are finished delivering for real number) and looks to be nearly profitable (if you take away the dealership - which VW has hinted they want in the future - from the German car makers VW is the only one that clearly stated they want to copy Tesla by business model and software centricity). We'll see how the ID.4 starting next week performs in the market.
threeseed 6y ago
> The competition is coming but they will probably find it difficult to compete with Tesla on price. There are plenty of cheaper EVs than Tesla e.g. Leaf, Zoe, Ioniq, Kona. And there are technically better EVs than Tesla e.g. Porsche Taycan. And you can argue there are EVs that are as good value e.g. VW ID.3/4.
- jpgvm 6y ago
  I love VW and I think they are going to make awesome EVs but saying the Taycan is "technically better" is an outright lie or an unfortunate ignorance. The drivetrain in the Model 3 is vastly more efficient and elegant in design. The overall systems design is more of the same, more efficient and elegant with simplified wiring harness, less onboard computers and more sophisticated infotainment and drive computers at that. What the Taycan does do better is feel more like a sports car, has better finishing and likely much better quality control. But "technically" Tesla is 5-10 years ahead of everyone except maybe Lucid which have been building advanced batteries and drivetrains for Model-E for the last decade.
  - threeseed 6y ago
    Taycan is based on an 800V architecture which allows for lower charging temperatures and significantly faster charging speeds. It's objectively better than anything in a Tesla.
    - jpgvm 6y ago
      Simply having a higher voltage architecture doesn't make it superior. It makes some aspects better but you need to consider the whole picture and that includes the efficiency of the drivetrain front and center as that determines range per kwh of battery capacity. It's worth mentioning I consider the Taycan to be a better and more fun car. I just don't agree it's technically superior to the Tesla Model 3 on drivetrain/battery/onboard computer aspects.
- situationista 6y ago
  All true. But you could argue it's beside the point, because che cheaper ones have other significant drawbacks (e.g. range, no driver-assist), and technically better ones are way more expensive. It's the combination of price-point, range, software and scalability in production that's difficult to achieve - any single one is relatively easy metric to beat Tesla on.
adflux 6y ago
"they have figured out what it takes to build EVs at scale". https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2020-us-auto-sales-figures-by-manufacturer/ https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2020-us-auto-sales-figures-by-... Tesla really doesnt produce that many cars. IMO EV is just another car. I would argue it's probably easier to set up a supply chain/factory line for an EV than for a combustion engine. The latter is far more complex, far more moving parts.
formerly_proven 6y ago
EVs seem pretty simple. I would guess "almost anyone" (where anyone means "big engineering company") can build an EV drive train. ICEs seem far more complicated to me (thousands of moving parts and so on). I would not expect "almost anyone" to be able to build an ICE which can last even 100k kilometers.

KingOfCoders 6y ago

I don't own a car, never have, never will, so take everything with you know what. "5 year head-start." I can't see this at work. It seems the VW ID.3 is outselling Tesla Model 3 in some markets (though we need to see when production is ramped up and pre-orders are finished delivering for real number) and looks to be nearly profitable (if you take away the dealership - which VW has hinted they want in the future - from the German car makers VW is the only one that clearly stated they want to copy Tesla by business model and software centricity). We'll see how the ID.4 starting next week performs in the market.

threeseed 6y ago

> The competition is coming but they will probably find it difficult to compete with Tesla on price. There are plenty of cheaper EVs than Tesla e.g. Leaf, Zoe, Ioniq, Kona. And there are technically better EVs than Tesla e.g. Porsche Taycan. And you can argue there are EVs that are as good value e.g. VW ID.3/4.

jpgvm 6y ago
I love VW and I think they are going to make awesome EVs but saying the Taycan is "technically better" is an outright lie or an unfortunate ignorance. The drivetrain in the Model 3 is vastly more efficient and elegant in design. The overall systems design is more of the same, more efficient and elegant with simplified wiring harness, less onboard computers and more sophisticated infotainment and drive computers at that. What the Taycan does do better is feel more like a sports car, has better finishing and likely much better quality control. But "technically" Tesla is 5-10 years ahead of everyone except maybe Lucid which have been building advanced batteries and drivetrains for Model-E for the last decade.
- threeseed 6y ago
  Taycan is based on an 800V architecture which allows for lower charging temperatures and significantly faster charging speeds. It's objectively better than anything in a Tesla.
  - jpgvm 6y ago
    Simply having a higher voltage architecture doesn't make it superior. It makes some aspects better but you need to consider the whole picture and that includes the efficiency of the drivetrain front and center as that determines range per kwh of battery capacity. It's worth mentioning I consider the Taycan to be a better and more fun car. I just don't agree it's technically superior to the Tesla Model 3 on drivetrain/battery/onboard computer aspects.
situationista 6y ago
All true. But you could argue it's beside the point, because che cheaper ones have other significant drawbacks (e.g. range, no driver-assist), and technically better ones are way more expensive. It's the combination of price-point, range, software and scalability in production that's difficult to achieve - any single one is relatively easy metric to beat Tesla on.

adflux 6y ago

"they have figured out what it takes to build EVs at scale". https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2020-us-auto-sales-figures-by-manufacturer/ https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2020-us-auto-sales-figures-by-... Tesla really doesnt produce that many cars. IMO EV is just another car. I would argue it's probably easier to set up a supply chain/factory line for an EV than for a combustion engine. The latter is far more complex, far more moving parts.

formerly_proven 6y ago

EVs seem pretty simple. I would guess "almost anyone" (where anyone means "big engineering company") can build an EV drive train. ICEs seem far more complicated to me (thousands of moving parts and so on). I would not expect "almost anyone" to be able to build an ICE which can last even 100k kilometers.