it's tempting to think that, but no, in the simple non-mutating case, the exponent is fixed. the growth rate is exponential but the exponent does not grow with

it's tempting to think that, but no, in the simple non-mutating case, the exponent is fixed. the growth rate is exponential but the exponent does not grow with spread. they say the exponent ranges from 2-5 for covid, and drops with mitigation methods. that seems to clearly put it in n^2 to me. that said, the mitigations do cause the exponent to fluctuate... and in countries where people are willing to cooperate it has dropped below 1 and the epidemic has been mitigated. it is possible that this is actually a case calling where asymptotic analysis is inappropriate and in fact you have to resort to the raw data and measurement. now that i think of it though, if you allow for mutations that are more infectious, then the exponent is not fixed and increases with spread... yikes.