3 ms·

> there were 141 deaths in the control arm, a 47.6 percent mortality rate That seems very high to me. I checked quickly for data, and I found a study[0] showin

> there were 141 deaths in the control arm, a 47.6 percent mortality rate That seems very high to me. I checked quickly for data, and I found a study[0] showing mortality rates for hospitalized covid patients in the U.S. between from 9% to 15%. So where did they find a control group with 47.6% mortality? Is care that much worse in Brazil vs. the U.S? Are they only giving this to mortally ill patients? The claim of 92% efficacy depends on this very high control group mortality. [0]: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2774572 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullar...

NovemberWhiskey 6y ago
I think it's going to depend very much on the distribution of patients with the different WHO Covid Ordinal Scale categories within the cohorts. If there were a lot more 5s (severely ill hospitalised patient on non-invasive ventilation or high-flow oxygen) vs. 3s (hospitalised patients not needing oxygen therapy), it would presumably make a large difference.
lbrito 6y ago
>So where did they find a control group with 47.6% mortality? Is care that much worse in Brazil vs. the U.S? Yeah, unfortunately it is -- 38% according to this news piece, 80% for ICU patients[1]. It makes sense that it is even higher in Amazonas, the Brazilian state reported in the study. Over there they had a very serious health system collapse the last few months; even oxygen supplies were completely depleted statewide for a couple of weeks. [1] "Mortality in hospital patients admitted with Covid in Brazil is one of the world's largest" https://saude.estadao.com.br/noticias/geral,mortalidade-por-covid-em-hospitais-do-brasil-e-das-maiores-do-mundo-mostra-estudo,70003583078 https://saude.estadao.com.br/noticias/geral,mortalidade-por-...
- hu3 6y ago
  It doesn't help that a very aggressive strain of covid was discovered in that region of Brazil: > P.1 infections can produce nearly 10 times more viral load than in other COVID-19-infected persons https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lineage_P.1 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lineage_P.1
IfOnlyYouKnew 6y ago
I believe the trial data is from summer 2020? Survival rates of hospitalized patients improved dramatically over time.
klmadfejno 6y ago
I've been trying to find this stat for the whole pandemic. To what degree are our medical systems reducing mortality rates?

NovemberWhiskey 6y ago

I think it's going to depend very much on the distribution of patients with the different WHO Covid Ordinal Scale categories within the cohorts. If there were a lot more 5s (severely ill hospitalised patient on non-invasive ventilation or high-flow oxygen) vs. 3s (hospitalised patients not needing oxygen therapy), it would presumably make a large difference.

lbrito 6y ago

>So where did they find a control group with 47.6% mortality? Is care that much worse in Brazil vs. the U.S? Yeah, unfortunately it is -- 38% according to this news piece, 80% for ICU patients[1]. It makes sense that it is even higher in Amazonas, the Brazilian state reported in the study. Over there they had a very serious health system collapse the last few months; even oxygen supplies were completely depleted statewide for a couple of weeks. [1] "Mortality in hospital patients admitted with Covid in Brazil is one of the world's largest" https://saude.estadao.com.br/noticias/geral,mortalidade-por-covid-em-hospitais-do-brasil-e-das-maiores-do-mundo-mostra-estudo,70003583078 https://saude.estadao.com.br/noticias/geral,mortalidade-por-...

hu3 6y ago
It doesn't help that a very aggressive strain of covid was discovered in that region of Brazil: > P.1 infections can produce nearly 10 times more viral load than in other COVID-19-infected persons https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lineage_P.1 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lineage_P.1

IfOnlyYouKnew 6y ago

I believe the trial data is from summer 2020? Survival rates of hospitalized patients improved dramatically over time.

klmadfejno 6y ago

I've been trying to find this stat for the whole pandemic. To what degree are our medical systems reducing mortality rates?