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Educated people have low birth rates. China and Russia are not Liberal states and their birth rates are very low as well. Covid-19 has caused millions of birt

Educated people have low birth rates. China and Russia are not Liberal states and their birth rates are very low as well. Covid-19 has caused millions of births to be avoided and birth rates have fallen out of bed. Demographers are constantly lowering their population projections and are still vastly overestimating the 2050 population.

monocasa 6y ago
I think it's more access to quality healthcare. No longer do you have to have as many kids as possible to be sure you'll get over the hill of the childhood mortality rate. Our healthcare system has made losing a child closer to losing a spouse rather than a simple fact of life like it once was. Education is just a proxy for access to services like that.
- bluefirebrand 6y ago
  This doesn't explain why so many skip kids entirely.
  - monocasa 6y ago
    They never wanted them and they have access to safe and effective birth control and abortions.
    - bluefirebrand 6y ago
      Okay but why did they never want them? There has to be some kind of underlying reason why humans are going against what we would expect our biology to want, which is to reproduce.
      - monocasa 6y ago
        Because our biology relied on us wanting sex, and having no mechanism to stop kids from being produced from sex? Whether you want kids or not didn't really factor into it for the vast length of human existence.
      - Mediterraneo10 6y ago
        Animal biology has a desire to copulate. That doesn't necessarily mean a desire to reproduce per se. Modern birth control lets human beings copulate all they want to satisy those urges without the reproduction part.
        Viliam1234 6y ago
        I think I saw a research saying that people today have less sex than previous generations had. So, there is still a part that needs to be answered. (I suspect smartphones and social networks.)
      - whateveracct 6y ago
        Because we are conscious. Humans defy evo-psych pop biology all the time
      - CogitoCogito 6y ago
        Do we have some moral obligation to follow our base biological desires? Humans also used to be much more aggressive to strangers than today. Aggression serves a biological purpose. Should we consider today's relatively passive humans an aberration?
      - CuriouslyC 6y ago
        I think some of the "never want children" is sour grapes at not being able to afford to do it and have the life they want in other ways, particularly for women.
- MeinBlutIstBlau 6y ago
  Women not required to get married to have a successful life anymore is more likely the actual culprit. Objectively, women's rights and egalitarian opportunities makes it easier for them not to have to get married to survive or rely on others. Marriage is most likely the #1 way low value males back in the day could've had kids. Now they're essentially not able to have kids and more people are ending up single. I'm not a traditionalist, pro-marriage, or even religious. The long term cultural effects spanning all cultures show that when both sexes have close to equal rights, birth rates drop.
  - monocasa 6y ago
    I don't think that's it, since women aren't also required to get married to have children anymore either. It also doesn't account for childless couples, or the lower rate of having children even among those who have children as you go up the socio-economic ladder.
    - sjg007 6y ago
      Big tech offers egg freezing. This means you don't have to sacrifice your career. It is a nice benefit, but why can't we instead support young mothers at work?
      - MeinBlutIstBlau 6y ago
        This is what should exist imo. Families shouldn't be punished for having children. However, do we tell single men/women who just can't get married to pick up the married peoples slack?
    - watwut 6y ago
      Being single parent with no support is harder then you think.
  - epakai 6y ago
    > The long term cultural effects spanning all cultures show that when both sexes have close to equal rights, birth rates drop. I haven't thought of it this way. I still think lack of poverty is a bigger predictor, but it's interesting the outliers are countries like Israel, Saudi Arabia, Kazakhstan, and Iraq. [0] (babies per woman vs. income level) [0] https://www.gapminder.org/tools/#$state$marker$axis_y$which=children_per_woman_total_fertility&domainMin:null&domainMax:null&zoomedMin:null&zoomedMax:null&spaceRef:null;;;&ui$chart$trails:false;;&chart-type=bubbles https://www.gapminder.org/tools/#$state$marker$axis_y$which=...
177tcca 6y ago
China has low birth rates?! When, the last year?
- prewett 6y ago
  For quite a while, thanks to the One Child Policy. The birth rate has about about 1.6 babies/woman since about 1990. It's been creeping up, but the current generation got used to the idea of one child per family. In addition, living in the cities is really expensive, and the hukou system means your kid is only guaranteed education in your hometown. I think you can often pay a fee, but I'm not sure, and in any case, it living is already expensive enough. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?locations=CN https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?location...
  - philipkglass 6y ago
    I wouldn't necessarily credit (blame?) mainland China's One Child policy for that. Japan, Taiwan, Singapore, and South Korea have even lower total fertility rates.
  - FooBarBizBazz 6y ago
    A true story I once read: An American traveler in rural Sichuan, while on the road, found himself speaking to a local family. A few members of the family were present: A husband and wife, and their youngest child, a daughter. The couple explained that their house had been torn down as punishment for violating the one child policy. This, evidently, is a real punishment that is used. They said they knew it might happen but intentionally tried to have a child anyway, and were delighted, despite everything, when they learned they were pregnant. That was how badly they wanted a daughter. This was the little girl who was now with them. The girl was present while they told the story of the demolished house. She heard every word. She had no doubt heard the story before. And she had a striking look on her face. You might call it pride.
  - 177tcca 6y ago
    That's...almost the exact same # for women in the US.
AnimalMuppet 6y ago
> Educated people have low birth rates. Educated people with access to modern medicine have low birthrates. New England was well educated from 1650-1800, but the birth rate was still high.

monocasa 6y ago

I think it's more access to quality healthcare. No longer do you have to have as many kids as possible to be sure you'll get over the hill of the childhood mortality rate. Our healthcare system has made losing a child closer to losing a spouse rather than a simple fact of life like it once was. Education is just a proxy for access to services like that.

bluefirebrand 6y ago
This doesn't explain why so many skip kids entirely.
- monocasa 6y ago
  They never wanted them and they have access to safe and effective birth control and abortions.
  - bluefirebrand 6y ago
    Okay but why did they never want them? There has to be some kind of underlying reason why humans are going against what we would expect our biology to want, which is to reproduce.
    - monocasa 6y ago
      Because our biology relied on us wanting sex, and having no mechanism to stop kids from being produced from sex? Whether you want kids or not didn't really factor into it for the vast length of human existence.
    - Mediterraneo10 6y ago
      Animal biology has a desire to copulate. That doesn't necessarily mean a desire to reproduce per se. Modern birth control lets human beings copulate all they want to satisy those urges without the reproduction part.
      - Viliam1234 6y ago
        I think I saw a research saying that people today have less sex than previous generations had. So, there is still a part that needs to be answered. (I suspect smartphones and social networks.)
    - whateveracct 6y ago
      Because we are conscious. Humans defy evo-psych pop biology all the time
    - CogitoCogito 6y ago
      Do we have some moral obligation to follow our base biological desires? Humans also used to be much more aggressive to strangers than today. Aggression serves a biological purpose. Should we consider today's relatively passive humans an aberration?
    - CuriouslyC 6y ago
      I think some of the "never want children" is sour grapes at not being able to afford to do it and have the life they want in other ways, particularly for women.
MeinBlutIstBlau 6y ago
Women not required to get married to have a successful life anymore is more likely the actual culprit. Objectively, women's rights and egalitarian opportunities makes it easier for them not to have to get married to survive or rely on others. Marriage is most likely the #1 way low value males back in the day could've had kids. Now they're essentially not able to have kids and more people are ending up single. I'm not a traditionalist, pro-marriage, or even religious. The long term cultural effects spanning all cultures show that when both sexes have close to equal rights, birth rates drop.
- monocasa 6y ago
  I don't think that's it, since women aren't also required to get married to have children anymore either. It also doesn't account for childless couples, or the lower rate of having children even among those who have children as you go up the socio-economic ladder.
  - sjg007 6y ago
    Big tech offers egg freezing. This means you don't have to sacrifice your career. It is a nice benefit, but why can't we instead support young mothers at work?
    - MeinBlutIstBlau 6y ago
      This is what should exist imo. Families shouldn't be punished for having children. However, do we tell single men/women who just can't get married to pick up the married peoples slack?
  - watwut 6y ago
    Being single parent with no support is harder then you think.
- epakai 6y ago
  > The long term cultural effects spanning all cultures show that when both sexes have close to equal rights, birth rates drop. I haven't thought of it this way. I still think lack of poverty is a bigger predictor, but it's interesting the outliers are countries like Israel, Saudi Arabia, Kazakhstan, and Iraq. [0] (babies per woman vs. income level) [0] https://www.gapminder.org/tools/#$state$marker$axis_y$which=children_per_woman_total_fertility&domainMin:null&domainMax:null&zoomedMin:null&zoomedMax:null&spaceRef:null;;;&ui$chart$trails:false;;&chart-type=bubbles https://www.gapminder.org/tools/#$state$marker$axis_y$which=...

177tcca 6y ago

China has low birth rates?! When, the last year?

prewett 6y ago
For quite a while, thanks to the One Child Policy. The birth rate has about about 1.6 babies/woman since about 1990. It's been creeping up, but the current generation got used to the idea of one child per family. In addition, living in the cities is really expensive, and the hukou system means your kid is only guaranteed education in your hometown. I think you can often pay a fee, but I'm not sure, and in any case, it living is already expensive enough. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?locations=CN https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?location...
- philipkglass 6y ago
  I wouldn't necessarily credit (blame?) mainland China's One Child policy for that. Japan, Taiwan, Singapore, and South Korea have even lower total fertility rates.
- FooBarBizBazz 6y ago
  A true story I once read: An American traveler in rural Sichuan, while on the road, found himself speaking to a local family. A few members of the family were present: A husband and wife, and their youngest child, a daughter. The couple explained that their house had been torn down as punishment for violating the one child policy. This, evidently, is a real punishment that is used. They said they knew it might happen but intentionally tried to have a child anyway, and were delighted, despite everything, when they learned they were pregnant. That was how badly they wanted a daughter. This was the little girl who was now with them. The girl was present while they told the story of the demolished house. She heard every word. She had no doubt heard the story before. And she had a striking look on her face. You might call it pride.
- 177tcca 6y ago
  That's...almost the exact same # for women in the US.

AnimalMuppet 6y ago

> Educated people have low birth rates. Educated people with access to modern medicine have low birthrates. New England was well educated from 1650-1800, but the birth rate was still high.