3 ms·

Where did you get that virus is n^2 ? If I'd have to guess, I'd say it is O(R^n)

• a-dub 6y ago
  it's tempting to think that, but no, in the simple non-mutating case, the exponent is fixed. the growth rate is exponential but the exponent does not grow with spread. they say the exponent ranges from 2-5 for covid, and drops with mitigation methods. that seems to clearly put it in n^2 to me. that said, the mitigations do cause the exponent to fluctuate... and in countries where people are willing to cooperate it has dropped below 1 and the epidemic has been mitigated. it is possible that this is actually a case calling where asymptotic analysis is inappropriate and in fact you have to resort to the raw data and measurement. now that i think of it though, if you allow for mutations that are more infectious, then the exponent is not fixed and increases with spread... yikes.
  • varajelle 6y ago
    I'm somehow still not convinced by your explanation. What exactly is N and what exactly is this measuring. I thought that N was a time period, and that the equation is something like Infected count = O(R^t) But apparently you mean that N is the number of infection? And what are you measuring? ??? = O(n^R) Where the ??? is also linear with the amount of people vaccinated?