4 ms·

Did the epidemiology community ever think that? I remember as early as March of last year, epidemiologists saying that herd immunity was not the way forward, an

Did the epidemiology community ever think that? I remember as early as March of last year, epidemiologists saying that herd immunity was not the way forward, and that this would likely become endemic. It seemed to mostly be reporters and politicians who pushed the herd immunity angle.

WaitWaitWha 6y ago
I can believe that. I have not dug much into the historical herd immunity statements, so it is possible they were not, although purported to be, by experts.
bmitc 6y ago
It was also a fair amount of HNers pushing the herd immunity thing as well.
- AndrewBissell 6y ago
  I don't want to necessarily attribute it to "epidemiologists" but there has been a pretty clear line from policymakers since about three weeks into the lockdowns (which was as long as we were initially told they would need to last to "flatten the curve") that we needed to stay locked down, keep wearing masks and distancing etc. until vaccines could be given to enough people to effectively end Covid transmission. There's a whole movement of prominent policy & medical leading lights that you can find with the #ZeroCovid hashtag on Twitter pushing this line.
mtberatwork 6y ago
From the article: > and many scientists had thought that once people started being immunized en masse, herd immunity would permit society to return to normal.
- heavyset_go 6y ago
  > many scientists https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weasel_word#Forms https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weasel_word#Forms
caturopath 6y ago
It's really difficult to tell from the sidelines the difference between Cassandras and the Trelawneys. Is there a concrete way to get the pulse of the epidemiologists over time?
simonh 6y ago
For a while early on allowing the virus to spread through the population, with limited distancing and lockdown measures to control the rate of spread, in order to achieve herd immunity was official British government policy. I'm not knocking them to be honest. In the early months so little was known for sure that it was a matter of making best estimates, and as better data came in they quickly adapted their strategy.

WaitWaitWha 6y ago

I can believe that. I have not dug much into the historical herd immunity statements, so it is possible they were not, although purported to be, by experts.

bmitc 6y ago

It was also a fair amount of HNers pushing the herd immunity thing as well.

AndrewBissell 6y ago
I don't want to necessarily attribute it to "epidemiologists" but there has been a pretty clear line from policymakers since about three weeks into the lockdowns (which was as long as we were initially told they would need to last to "flatten the curve") that we needed to stay locked down, keep wearing masks and distancing etc. until vaccines could be given to enough people to effectively end Covid transmission. There's a whole movement of prominent policy & medical leading lights that you can find with the #ZeroCovid hashtag on Twitter pushing this line.

mtberatwork 6y ago

From the article: > and many scientists had thought that once people started being immunized en masse, herd immunity would permit society to return to normal.

heavyset_go 6y ago
> many scientists https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weasel_word#Forms https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weasel_word#Forms

caturopath 6y ago

It's really difficult to tell from the sidelines the difference between Cassandras and the Trelawneys. Is there a concrete way to get the pulse of the epidemiologists over time?

simonh 6y ago

For a while early on allowing the virus to spread through the population, with limited distancing and lockdown measures to control the rate of spread, in order to achieve herd immunity was official British government policy. I'm not knocking them to be honest. In the early months so little was known for sure that it was a matter of making best estimates, and as better data came in they quickly adapted their strategy.