5 ms·

Alright what's the way forward then

by sadmann1 6y ago

throwaway122378 6y ago
Constant moving of the goal posts until full vaccinated proof is required to be a part of “normal” society
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
Spivak 6y ago
Everyone or as many 9’s as possible getting vaccinated and regular testing of anyone who can’t get the vaccine. Like it doesn’t have to be obnoxious but people who can’t get the vaccine should get tested when any symptoms show. It’s gonna be like the flu, but ya know deadlier, where the name of the game is control and stamping out outbreaks aggressively.
- Uehreka 6y ago
  My gut feeling is that it would take strong and probably obnoxious enforcement to get us to one 9, we probably can’t even get two 9s (as in 99%, since some people think that means 99.99%) due to the number of people medically ineligible. And all that’s after approving any vaccine for kids, which we haven’t done yet.
  - Spivak 6y ago
    I mean you think that 30+ million people in the US will be medically ineligible? Every single vaccine in my state is being administered as fast as they can ship them out. And after a while kids will have to be vaccinated to go to school same as we do with other vaccines. There is no current prediction that the vaccine won't be safe for kids. The biggest groups that are ineligible are people with vaccine allergies and people with some autoimmune diseases which is vanishingly small.
nickysielicki 6y ago
The way forward requires coming to terms with the fact that none of this needed to happen in the first place. This disease is really just not that deadly for non-elderly and non-obese people, and we've known for a while. Every institution under the sun failed. We say we need to trust the science, but the scientists were all wrong: LANL put out a preprint paper that estimated r0 at ~7 near the beginning of the pandemic, where it's more like 2.5. The scientists told us that a vaccine wouldn't be ready for years, it was actually ready in months. The media was so addicted to the story that they failed to inform the public of these changing expectations. Meanwhile, the government spent a lot of money, and it's not entirely clear that it did anything except bubble up tech stocks. Did it save many jobs? No, not really, just like all these other institutions failed. The way forward won't happen, at least for a while, because these institutions are powerful and need to save face.
- bryanlarsen 6y ago
  A new paper estimates the economic benefits of the first billion spent on vaccines at $17 trillion, and $1 trillion for each of the next few billions spent. We should have spent a lot more money on vaccines. https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2021/03/bigger-is-better-when-it-comes-to-vaccine-production.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2021/03/bi...
- frenchy 6y ago
  > The scientists told us that a vaccine wouldn't be ready for years, it was actually ready in months I remember the messaging at the beginning of last year being to expect at least 18 months, possibly much longer. For most people, 18 months will be about accurate, for a few people, they will have beat the estimate, but that's not surprising - it's an estimate. It's a hell of a lot more accurate than a couple months. > these institutions are powerful and need to save face You just explained above that these institutions are not powerful, and that they have limititations. Which one of these are true?
  - nickysielicki 6y ago
    > I remember the messaging at the beginning of last year being to expect at least 18 months, possibly much longer. I remember messaging about timelines of several years. The fact that science eventually arrived at a consistent and accurate message doesn't mean that there wasn't consensus around the wrong opinions when it was most critical. > You just explained above that these institutions are not powerful, and that they have limititations. Which one of these are true? Nowhere did I claim they are not powerful, I simply claimed that they made bad decisions.
corty 6y ago
Quite the same as if the vaccinations were causing herd immunity: Everyone who wants a shot will get one. Everyone on the vulnerable list should think really hard and really get a shot. The rest can suffer of their own free will. Or: make vaccinations mandatory if you want to protect those who cannot get a shot for health reasons. Remember, the reason is vaccination hesitancy or refusal. A perfect example of antisocial and stupid behaviour.
- heavyset_go 6y ago
  > Or: make vaccinations mandatory if you want to protect those who cannot get a shot for health reasons. To put this one in perspective, we already make vaccinations mandatory for public school attendance, and colleges go one step further and require vaccinations for attendance, too.
  - pandeiro 6y ago
    Does COVID vaccination prevent infection and transmission?
    - deleted 6y ago
      [deleted]
    - corty 6y ago
      Yes, it certainly looks that way: https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-israel-vaccine-int-idUSKBN2AJ08J https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-israel-va... https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-pfizer-vaccine-tra-idUSKBN2AQ1A7 https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-pfizer...
      - pandeiro 6y ago
        Thanks for sharing those. While encouraging, the first obvious issue is that "reduce" != "prevent". There's also the related issue of how long that partial immunity lasts: I think the conventional wisdom is that it won't be for decades or anything, but would love to know if I'm wrong. Both of those factors make COVID vaccination quite different from, say, measles vaccination (~97% prevention, lifelong immunity), and seemingly more similar to the flu vaccine, which is not required by any schools (that I know of).
matz1 6y ago
Accept it, remove all restriction and move on.
cwhiz 6y ago
Continue to cower inside.
runawaybottle 6y ago
First and foremost, don’t panic. Certainly don’t shut entire industries down for a whole year.
hannob 6y ago
Vaccinate as many people as possible. There's a lot between "herd immunity via vaccination" (very good) and "uncontrolled spread" (very bad). Protecting a lot of people is not as good as protecting everyone. But it's better than protecting nooone.

Alright what's the way forward then

throwaway122378 6y ago

Constant moving of the goal posts until full vaccinated proof is required to be a part of “normal” society

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

Spivak 6y ago

Everyone or as many 9’s as possible getting vaccinated and regular testing of anyone who can’t get the vaccine. Like it doesn’t have to be obnoxious but people who can’t get the vaccine should get tested when any symptoms show. It’s gonna be like the flu, but ya know deadlier, where the name of the game is control and stamping out outbreaks aggressively.

Uehreka 6y ago
My gut feeling is that it would take strong and probably obnoxious enforcement to get us to one 9, we probably can’t even get two 9s (as in 99%, since some people think that means 99.99%) due to the number of people medically ineligible. And all that’s after approving any vaccine for kids, which we haven’t done yet.
- Spivak 6y ago
  I mean you think that 30+ million people in the US will be medically ineligible? Every single vaccine in my state is being administered as fast as they can ship them out. And after a while kids will have to be vaccinated to go to school same as we do with other vaccines. There is no current prediction that the vaccine won't be safe for kids. The biggest groups that are ineligible are people with vaccine allergies and people with some autoimmune diseases which is vanishingly small.

nickysielicki 6y ago

The way forward requires coming to terms with the fact that none of this needed to happen in the first place. This disease is really just not that deadly for non-elderly and non-obese people, and we've known for a while. Every institution under the sun failed. We say we need to trust the science, but the scientists were all wrong: LANL put out a preprint paper that estimated r0 at ~7 near the beginning of the pandemic, where it's more like 2.5. The scientists told us that a vaccine wouldn't be ready for years, it was actually ready in months. The media was so addicted to the story that they failed to inform the public of these changing expectations. Meanwhile, the government spent a lot of money, and it's not entirely clear that it did anything except bubble up tech stocks. Did it save many jobs? No, not really, just like all these other institutions failed. The way forward won't happen, at least for a while, because these institutions are powerful and need to save face.

bryanlarsen 6y ago
A new paper estimates the economic benefits of the first billion spent on vaccines at $17 trillion, and $1 trillion for each of the next few billions spent. We should have spent a lot more money on vaccines. https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2021/03/bigger-is-better-when-it-comes-to-vaccine-production.html https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2021/03/bi...
frenchy 6y ago
> The scientists told us that a vaccine wouldn't be ready for years, it was actually ready in months I remember the messaging at the beginning of last year being to expect at least 18 months, possibly much longer. For most people, 18 months will be about accurate, for a few people, they will have beat the estimate, but that's not surprising - it's an estimate. It's a hell of a lot more accurate than a couple months. > these institutions are powerful and need to save face You just explained above that these institutions are not powerful, and that they have limititations. Which one of these are true?
- nickysielicki 6y ago
  > I remember the messaging at the beginning of last year being to expect at least 18 months, possibly much longer. I remember messaging about timelines of several years. The fact that science eventually arrived at a consistent and accurate message doesn't mean that there wasn't consensus around the wrong opinions when it was most critical. > You just explained above that these institutions are not powerful, and that they have limititations. Which one of these are true? Nowhere did I claim they are not powerful, I simply claimed that they made bad decisions.

corty 6y ago

Quite the same as if the vaccinations were causing herd immunity: Everyone who wants a shot will get one. Everyone on the vulnerable list should think really hard and really get a shot. The rest can suffer of their own free will. Or: make vaccinations mandatory if you want to protect those who cannot get a shot for health reasons. Remember, the reason is vaccination hesitancy or refusal. A perfect example of antisocial and stupid behaviour.

heavyset_go 6y ago
> Or: make vaccinations mandatory if you want to protect those who cannot get a shot for health reasons. To put this one in perspective, we already make vaccinations mandatory for public school attendance, and colleges go one step further and require vaccinations for attendance, too.
- pandeiro 6y ago
  Does COVID vaccination prevent infection and transmission?
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
  - corty 6y ago
    Yes, it certainly looks that way: https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-israel-vaccine-int-idUSKBN2AJ08J https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-israel-va... https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-pfizer-vaccine-tra-idUSKBN2AQ1A7 https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-pfizer...
    - pandeiro 6y ago
      Thanks for sharing those. While encouraging, the first obvious issue is that "reduce" != "prevent". There's also the related issue of how long that partial immunity lasts: I think the conventional wisdom is that it won't be for decades or anything, but would love to know if I'm wrong. Both of those factors make COVID vaccination quite different from, say, measles vaccination (~97% prevention, lifelong immunity), and seemingly more similar to the flu vaccine, which is not required by any schools (that I know of).

matz1 6y ago

Accept it, remove all restriction and move on.

cwhiz 6y ago

Continue to cower inside.

runawaybottle 6y ago

First and foremost, don’t panic. Certainly don’t shut entire industries down for a whole year.

hannob 6y ago

Vaccinate as many people as possible. There's a lot between "herd immunity via vaccination" (very good) and "uncontrolled spread" (very bad). Protecting a lot of people is not as good as protecting everyone. But it's better than protecting nooone.