6 ms·

Yep, this^ is the point. It is amazing that this key point is missed in so many discussions. Now.. maybe it is still worth the risk for a young 20 year old fem

Yep, this^ is the point. It is amazing that this key point is missed in so many discussions. Now.. maybe it is still worth the risk for a young 20 year old female, but I am not so sure - especially since we luckily have other vaccines that do not show this risk.

Retric 6y ago
There are safer vaccines so there is little point in risking this one. That said, it depends on how many future infections people that age face. If this vaccine is causing at most 4 deaths per million people* vs 648 recorded US covid deaths 15-24 out of a population of 43.5 million. 4 * 43.5 = ~174 < 648. So, it would have been noticeably safer for a random 20 year old American to have taken it Jan 2020 than risk covid. https://knoema.com/atlas/United-States-of-America/topics/Demographics/Age/Population-aged-15-24-years https://knoema.com/atlas/United-States-of-America/topics/Dem... So if the total future infections are say 1/4 the total infections up to this point then their roughly equivalent risks. Tipping one way or the other based on actual number of infections. * It’s rare enough that actual risks aren’t clear, but assuming the vaccine is the cause we can assume the risks are at or below that level.
tim333 6y ago
Well it's certainly worth doing risk reward calculations but so far they seem pretty clearly in favour of taking the vaccine.
- jobigoud 6y ago
  If you assume you are 100% getting the virus maybe. But if you take a lot of precautions, work from home, don't get out unless necessary, wear a mask... it's not clear at all.
  - tim333 6y ago
    I guess if you are very low risk. I figure as a guestimate - people killed by vaccines - prob less that 1 a day. People killed by covid - about 7000 a day. So covid looks worse. Not a sophisticated analysis although the regulators do do those.

6 ms·

Yep, this^ is the point. It is amazing that this key point is missed in so many discussions. Now.. maybe it is still worth the risk for a young 20 year old fem

by eastendguy 6y ago

Retric 6y ago
There are safer vaccines so there is little point in risking this one. That said, it depends on how many future infections people that age face. If this vaccine is causing at most 4 deaths per million people* vs 648 recorded US covid deaths 15-24 out of a population of 43.5 million. 4 * 43.5 = ~174 < 648. So, it would have been noticeably safer for a random 20 year old American to have taken it Jan 2020 than risk covid. https://knoema.com/atlas/United-States-of-America/topics/Demographics/Age/Population-aged-15-24-years https://knoema.com/atlas/United-States-of-America/topics/Dem... So if the total future infections are say 1/4 the total infections up to this point then their roughly equivalent risks. Tipping one way or the other based on actual number of infections. * It’s rare enough that actual risks aren’t clear, but assuming the vaccine is the cause we can assume the risks are at or below that level.
tim333 6y ago
Well it's certainly worth doing risk reward calculations but so far they seem pretty clearly in favour of taking the vaccine.
- jobigoud 6y ago
  If you assume you are 100% getting the virus maybe. But if you take a lot of precautions, work from home, don't get out unless necessary, wear a mask... it's not clear at all.
  - tim333 6y ago
    I guess if you are very low risk. I figure as a guestimate - people killed by vaccines - prob less that 1 a day. People killed by covid - about 7000 a day. So covid looks worse. Not a sophisticated analysis although the regulators do do those.