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> we're not even sure about increasing our own population size forever World population is expected to peak at 10 billion at some point during this century, th

by mkl95 6y ago

> we're not even sure about increasing our own population size forever World population is expected to peak at 10 billion at some point during this century, then decrease quite a bit. The most similar planets we know about are hundreds of light years away, and if we somehow were able to reach them, we would have to overcome issues such as receiving massive amounts of radiation, having no water, etc., so it's reasonable to expect human population to stay below 10 billion for a long time.

jkaptur 6y ago
Where can I read more about the "decrease quite a bit"? People have been predicting that for centuries (Malthus, etc.) and they've all been spectacularly wrong so far.
- mkl95 6y ago
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Projections_of_population_growth https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Projections_of_population_grow... The UN expect Asia, Europe and Latin America to start declining in the 2090s, and for zero population growth to be reached around that time. * They estimate that population will eventually decrease by about 1bn. Edit: the study that estimates a decline of 1 billion was published by The Lancet, not the UN. * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero_population_growth https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero_population_growth
- rendang 6y ago
  Some countries' populations are already decreasing, like Japan, and more are following close on the same path.
  - lupire 6y ago
    And USA is decreasing internally, but increasing overall due to immigration.
Symmetry 6y ago
If the factors that led to our current population slowdown are maintained over the coming centuries then eventually there'll be a time when population starts to go up again. Some personality traits like Agreeableness are both heritable and tend to cause people to have more kids. So the trend should reverse itself eventually. http://hopefullyintersting.blogspot.com/2018/05/falling-fertility-rates-shouldnt-be.html http://hopefullyintersting.blogspot.com/2018/05/falling-fert...

by mkl95 6y ago

jkaptur 6y ago

Where can I read more about the "decrease quite a bit"? People have been predicting that for centuries (Malthus, etc.) and they've all been spectacularly wrong so far.

mkl95 6y ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Projections_of_population_growth https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Projections_of_population_grow... The UN expect Asia, Europe and Latin America to start declining in the 2090s, and for zero population growth to be reached around that time. * They estimate that population will eventually decrease by about 1bn. Edit: the study that estimates a decline of 1 billion was published by The Lancet, not the UN. * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero_population_growth https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero_population_growth
rendang 6y ago
Some countries' populations are already decreasing, like Japan, and more are following close on the same path.
- lupire 6y ago
  And USA is decreasing internally, but increasing overall due to immigration.

Symmetry 6y ago

If the factors that led to our current population slowdown are maintained over the coming centuries then eventually there'll be a time when population starts to go up again. Some personality traits like Agreeableness are both heritable and tend to cause people to have more kids. So the trend should reverse itself eventually. http://hopefullyintersting.blogspot.com/2018/05/falling-fertility-rates-shouldnt-be.html http://hopefullyintersting.blogspot.com/2018/05/falling-fert...