4 ms·

> This is a real-life example of the runaway railcar switch dilemma. The train car is heading towards a crowd of millions of people and will plough through the

> This is a real-life example of the runaway railcar switch dilemma. The train car is heading towards a crowd of millions of people and will plough through the middle of them killing many hundreds, or you can throw the switch and divert the railcar so it hits a handful of people prone to the blood clot reaction. In this situation it's not that much of a dilemma, though. It's not as if those prone to blood clots are not at risk until they're given the vaccine, everyone is at risk from COVID and the blood clot prone maybe even more so. And the sheer number of people it will benefit means the choice is simple. > very concerning if it's true Little known fact: women's birth control pills also have a higher risk of blood clot. Always have. If that risk is considered to be acceptable then I don't see any reason why this isn't either.

YinglingLight 6y ago
>everyone is at risk from COVID Yet the majority of the population are not at risk for significant health complications from COVID. The question remains if the blood clot causing demographics overlap with those at risk for serious COVID cases.
bbarnett 6y ago
Yes, but, there are close to 200 vaccines. It isn't as if all vaccinations have stopped, there are other options, and panic and fear on the side of omg must vaccinate now, now,now!? Any hint, even the slightest, that complications may be ignored, could result in untold masses refusing vaccination out of fear. So let's pause one vaccine for a few days, and see if moving ahead, or more research is required.
- afavour 6y ago
  > there are other options Not with sufficient supply there isn’t. That’s the issue almost every country is facing, and AZ production plants can’t just flip a switch and start making Moderna vaccines instead. No matter what if you stop using the AZ you’re going to have a sharp drop in the number of vaccinations you’re able to do. That would almost certainly result in more deaths than the side effect of the vaccine. > Any hint, even the slightest, that complications may be ignored, could result in untold masses refusing vaccination out of fear. Only if people (and the media especially) hype up a very small danger to be more than it is. The larger danger is and always was COVID itself, especially with the new strains spreading.
  - marvin 6y ago
    The US will have >600 million doses from Moderna and Pfizer delivered by July, and currently even has 30 (soon 60) million AZ doses in storage that won't get approval before these 600 million other doses are delivered. There's certainly countries where this will be a difficult ethical consideration, but it's far from clear-cut everywhere with the data and timelines that are currently available.
  - bbarnett 6y ago
    I'm sorry, but anti-vaxxer nutjobs do that hype all on their own. And people are already sensibly worried about rushed testing, and approval processes. (It is sensible to be worried, and to keep a sharp eye.) Now there appears to be a complication with one vaccine. No hype is required, for people to become enraged if there is no investigation. Most jurisdictions have said 'pause for a few days, until we look into this'. This is very, very sensible. Logical. Calm and cool, as a reaction. Let me put this another way. By your response, you're suggestion that we should not have even bothered with clinical trials? Just inject anything we thought might work, right away, just in case? Because, if you're advocating against pausing, for something that would get a second look in a clinical trial... ?
    - afavour 6y ago
      > By your response, you're suggestion that we should not have even bothered with clinical trials? Just inject anything we thought might work, right away, just in case? That's very clearly not my suggestion. You're being absurd. You're talking as if the AZ vaccine had no clinical trial. It did. It's been proven safe for the vast, vast majority of the population. At no point did I say that this shouldn't be investigated. It should be. But there is no need to pause the rollout of the vaccine while that happens. A reminder: 40 cases in 17 million. Very few of those 40 cases have been fatal. "Pause for a few days" is very generous. How many days? We all know investigations like this can go on for weeks. Months, even. All the while the much more dangerous thread, COVID, is allowed to spread further.
      - bbarnett 6y ago
- lyschoening 6y ago
  Who is to say that other vaccines don't have the same side-effect? That could especially be assumed of the other viral vector vaccines, so Johnson & Johnson, Sputnik and CanSino, none of which have received much scrutiny so far. Even if the mRNA vaccines are safe, we depend on J&J and AZ doses for our reopening plans in Europe. We can expect economic damage from any wait for alternative vaccine doses.
  - marvin 6y ago
    J&J uses a different adenovirus than AZ (and human rather than chimpanzee). Of course, this is now demonstrated as a potential side effect to be on the lookout for.
- simonh 6y ago
  Several European countries are already finding that millions of people are refusing the AZ vaccine due to unfounded and disproven aspersions made against it by political leaders in Europe. So either way vaccine deployment gets hurt. If you suspend usage vaccinations get delayed and people wonder if there are real problems, otherwise why is it's use being suspended? If you push ahead people complain concerns aren't being taken seriously. It's lose/lose all round. Meanwhile Britain has got on with the job and vaccinated 25 million people (including me on Monday, with AZ), and avoided the fresh waves of infections crippling Europe and flooding their hospitals at the moment.
- jcranmer 6y ago
  > there are close to 200 vaccines. That number is at best vaccine candidates, and I suspect even that is a very charitable term. The actual number of vaccines approved by any health agency is 12, most of which are not approved by any EU health agency. Including the number of vaccines in Phase III trials that might be approved in the next several months would get you maybe another dozen at most.

YinglingLight 6y ago

>everyone is at risk from COVID Yet the majority of the population are not at risk for significant health complications from COVID. The question remains if the blood clot causing demographics overlap with those at risk for serious COVID cases.

bbarnett 6y ago

Yes, but, there are close to 200 vaccines. It isn't as if all vaccinations have stopped, there are other options, and panic and fear on the side of omg must vaccinate now, now,now!? Any hint, even the slightest, that complications may be ignored, could result in untold masses refusing vaccination out of fear. So let's pause one vaccine for a few days, and see if moving ahead, or more research is required.

afavour 6y ago
> there are other options Not with sufficient supply there isn’t. That’s the issue almost every country is facing, and AZ production plants can’t just flip a switch and start making Moderna vaccines instead. No matter what if you stop using the AZ you’re going to have a sharp drop in the number of vaccinations you’re able to do. That would almost certainly result in more deaths than the side effect of the vaccine. > Any hint, even the slightest, that complications may be ignored, could result in untold masses refusing vaccination out of fear. Only if people (and the media especially) hype up a very small danger to be more than it is. The larger danger is and always was COVID itself, especially with the new strains spreading.
- marvin 6y ago
  The US will have >600 million doses from Moderna and Pfizer delivered by July, and currently even has 30 (soon 60) million AZ doses in storage that won't get approval before these 600 million other doses are delivered. There's certainly countries where this will be a difficult ethical consideration, but it's far from clear-cut everywhere with the data and timelines that are currently available.
- bbarnett 6y ago
  I'm sorry, but anti-vaxxer nutjobs do that hype all on their own. And people are already sensibly worried about rushed testing, and approval processes. (It is sensible to be worried, and to keep a sharp eye.) Now there appears to be a complication with one vaccine. No hype is required, for people to become enraged if there is no investigation. Most jurisdictions have said 'pause for a few days, until we look into this'. This is very, very sensible. Logical. Calm and cool, as a reaction. Let me put this another way. By your response, you're suggestion that we should not have even bothered with clinical trials? Just inject anything we thought might work, right away, just in case? Because, if you're advocating against pausing, for something that would get a second look in a clinical trial... ?
  - afavour 6y ago
    > By your response, you're suggestion that we should not have even bothered with clinical trials? Just inject anything we thought might work, right away, just in case? That's very clearly not my suggestion. You're being absurd. You're talking as if the AZ vaccine had no clinical trial. It did. It's been proven safe for the vast, vast majority of the population. At no point did I say that this shouldn't be investigated. It should be. But there is no need to pause the rollout of the vaccine while that happens. A reminder: 40 cases in 17 million. Very few of those 40 cases have been fatal. "Pause for a few days" is very generous. How many days? We all know investigations like this can go on for weeks. Months, even. All the while the much more dangerous thread, COVID, is allowed to spread further.
    - bbarnett 6y ago
lyschoening 6y ago
Who is to say that other vaccines don't have the same side-effect? That could especially be assumed of the other viral vector vaccines, so Johnson & Johnson, Sputnik and CanSino, none of which have received much scrutiny so far. Even if the mRNA vaccines are safe, we depend on J&J and AZ doses for our reopening plans in Europe. We can expect economic damage from any wait for alternative vaccine doses.
- marvin 6y ago
  J&J uses a different adenovirus than AZ (and human rather than chimpanzee). Of course, this is now demonstrated as a potential side effect to be on the lookout for.
simonh 6y ago
Several European countries are already finding that millions of people are refusing the AZ vaccine due to unfounded and disproven aspersions made against it by political leaders in Europe. So either way vaccine deployment gets hurt. If you suspend usage vaccinations get delayed and people wonder if there are real problems, otherwise why is it's use being suspended? If you push ahead people complain concerns aren't being taken seriously. It's lose/lose all round. Meanwhile Britain has got on with the job and vaccinated 25 million people (including me on Monday, with AZ), and avoided the fresh waves of infections crippling Europe and flooding their hospitals at the moment.
jcranmer 6y ago
> there are close to 200 vaccines. That number is at best vaccine candidates, and I suspect even that is a very charitable term. The actual number of vaccines approved by any health agency is 12, most of which are not approved by any EU health agency. Including the number of vaccines in Phase III trials that might be approved in the next several months would get you maybe another dozen at most.