If you define a great filter as something that statistically prevents the preponderance of life in the galaxy, then "any mega black swan even" is just noise. Wi

If you define a great filter as something that statistically prevents the preponderance of life in the galaxy, then "any mega black swan even" is just noise. With small likelihood, it will wipe out a civilization, (definition of black swan). But for it to be a great filter per definition, it has to somewhat reliably affect all potentially universe-spanning intelligence. All I'm saying is that most likely, once an intelligent tribe of creates arises, it's likely to go on to dominate the planet, and likely to go on to reach technological readiness to go to space (assuming it can get access to energy easily, which may be another small filter). So, you're not wrong, all dangers events could be humanity's end, I'm just saying something more general -- that civilization-limiting events are probably clustered before the civilization arises.