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Assuming there is only one big filter, which I think is unlikely. Any mega black swan event is a filter in its own since it's disturbing the system you are ada

Assuming there is only one big filter, which I think is unlikely. Any mega black swan event is a filter in its own since it's disturbing the system you are adapted to. The worse event is one that disturbs the system you are dependant on. Climat change is terrible, but it could be worse. We depend on oxygen. Gravity. What else await for us ?

jvanderbot 6y ago
If you define a great filter as something that statistically prevents the preponderance of life in the galaxy, then "any mega black swan even" is just noise. With small likelihood, it will wipe out a civilization, (definition of black swan). But for it to be a great filter per definition, it has to somewhat reliably affect all potentially universe-spanning intelligence. All I'm saying is that most likely, once an intelligent tribe of creates arises, it's likely to go on to dominate the planet, and likely to go on to reach technological readiness to go to space (assuming it can get access to energy easily, which may be another small filter). So, you're not wrong, all dangers events could be humanity's end, I'm just saying something more general -- that civilization-limiting events are probably clustered before the civilization arises.
- jtsiskin 6y ago
  It may very well be after it ,still due to “black swan” type events. With technology continuing to progress, there may be a point where a small group of dedicated people can construct enough nuclear warheads for a nuclear winter, or engineer the perfect deadly virus with a large incubation period. And/or if we develops AGI, that a single malicious group controlling an AGI can end all life on earth. Technology will continue to advance, and it is easier to destroy than to create. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_catastrophic_risk https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_catastrophic_risk

jvanderbot 6y ago

If you define a great filter as something that statistically prevents the preponderance of life in the galaxy, then "any mega black swan even" is just noise. With small likelihood, it will wipe out a civilization, (definition of black swan). But for it to be a great filter per definition, it has to somewhat reliably affect all potentially universe-spanning intelligence. All I'm saying is that most likely, once an intelligent tribe of creates arises, it's likely to go on to dominate the planet, and likely to go on to reach technological readiness to go to space (assuming it can get access to energy easily, which may be another small filter). So, you're not wrong, all dangers events could be humanity's end, I'm just saying something more general -- that civilization-limiting events are probably clustered before the civilization arises.

jtsiskin 6y ago
It may very well be after it ,still due to “black swan” type events. With technology continuing to progress, there may be a point where a small group of dedicated people can construct enough nuclear warheads for a nuclear winter, or engineer the perfect deadly virus with a large incubation period. And/or if we develops AGI, that a single malicious group controlling an AGI can end all life on earth. Technology will continue to advance, and it is easier to destroy than to create. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_catastrophic_risk https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_catastrophic_risk