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We still live in a generation where people think "real estate only goes up." I have so many people bragging about how they've nearly doubled the equity in their

We still live in a generation where people think "real estate only goes up." I have so many people bragging about how they've nearly doubled the equity in their home around here in Nashville. 2007 didn't change anything, it was just a blip. People are still flipping houses and leveraging their existing homes to buy new ones. In the long run though, the saying hasn't really been proven false, asset prices tend to always increase.

wavefunction 6y ago
In a world where WeWork can be valued at 47B USD by professional capitalists, there's something to be said for acknowledging that the stock market and stock valuations can be untethered to reality. I think the sentiment you mentioned is a combination of that and a bit of a humorous/nihilistic attitude towards the same.
- partiallypro 6y ago
  Valuations simply don't matter right now, Tesla is bigger than every car company combined and makes less than virtually all of them. I don't get it, but that's how it is. There is no end in sight, if there were a moment to burst any bubble it would have been last March...and it didn't.
  - azinman2 6y ago
    That’s because it’s about future earning potential for “growth stocks”, not current reality. The other car makers have reached a kind of equilibrium, while Tesla keeps putting out new products in a class they essentially invented. That said, I also don’t own Tesla because I think it’s crazy overvalued.
    - partiallypro 6y ago
      That's why F/PE exists, even on that basis the current market doesn't make sense and valuation doesn't matter. Frankly, I think when/if SpaceX goes public, Tesla will start going down and people will plow into SpaceX (which IMO has more of a strong future and also what people investing in Tesla now are kind of thinking they have a part of)
kmeisthax 6y ago
Real estate is a bit different because the government actively restricts the supply of developable land and legally-buildable housing units on that land. The crash will come once average suburbanites stop protesting everything denser than a half-acre single-family home and city councils realize that mixed-zoning is far more sustainable.
- joshuaheard 6y ago
  I think geography also restricts the supply of developable land. Real estate is a finite commodity, while the human population doubles every 33 years. Even if you build up and with a higher density, there is a fixed limit to habitable space on earth. With a fixed supply and increasing demand, you will see increasing prices over time.
- diegocg 6y ago
  This is true in many areas (California), but not in others. There are ghost residential areas in many countries. In 2004 in Spain 675.000 house starts - more than UK, Germany and France combined (45 millions citizens in Spain vs 80+65+65). There were not unsurmountable government restrictions (obviously). There was no real demand for it. The housing demand was largely speculative, people investing in houses because "prices never go down". Often, they didn't even get rented - why bother, if the valuation of your "investment" grows faster than what you can get from rent? In markets like these, huge increases in supply don't drive the prices down. Hoarding, speculation and housing flipping absorb everything that gets built. We still have insanely high housing prices today.
- 0xffff2 6y ago
  >The crash will come once average suburbanites stop protesting everything denser than a half-acre single-family home and city councils realize that mixed-zoning is far more sustainable. So conversely, the crash will never come as long as average suburbanites continue to protest everything denser than a half-acre single-family home? Because I wouldn't bet on human nature changing any time soon.

wavefunction 6y ago

In a world where WeWork can be valued at 47B USD by professional capitalists, there's something to be said for acknowledging that the stock market and stock valuations can be untethered to reality. I think the sentiment you mentioned is a combination of that and a bit of a humorous/nihilistic attitude towards the same.

partiallypro 6y ago
Valuations simply don't matter right now, Tesla is bigger than every car company combined and makes less than virtually all of them. I don't get it, but that's how it is. There is no end in sight, if there were a moment to burst any bubble it would have been last March...and it didn't.
- azinman2 6y ago
  That’s because it’s about future earning potential for “growth stocks”, not current reality. The other car makers have reached a kind of equilibrium, while Tesla keeps putting out new products in a class they essentially invented. That said, I also don’t own Tesla because I think it’s crazy overvalued.
  - partiallypro 6y ago
    That's why F/PE exists, even on that basis the current market doesn't make sense and valuation doesn't matter. Frankly, I think when/if SpaceX goes public, Tesla will start going down and people will plow into SpaceX (which IMO has more of a strong future and also what people investing in Tesla now are kind of thinking they have a part of)

kmeisthax 6y ago

Real estate is a bit different because the government actively restricts the supply of developable land and legally-buildable housing units on that land. The crash will come once average suburbanites stop protesting everything denser than a half-acre single-family home and city councils realize that mixed-zoning is far more sustainable.

joshuaheard 6y ago
I think geography also restricts the supply of developable land. Real estate is a finite commodity, while the human population doubles every 33 years. Even if you build up and with a higher density, there is a fixed limit to habitable space on earth. With a fixed supply and increasing demand, you will see increasing prices over time.
diegocg 6y ago
This is true in many areas (California), but not in others. There are ghost residential areas in many countries. In 2004 in Spain 675.000 house starts - more than UK, Germany and France combined (45 millions citizens in Spain vs 80+65+65). There were not unsurmountable government restrictions (obviously). There was no real demand for it. The housing demand was largely speculative, people investing in houses because "prices never go down". Often, they didn't even get rented - why bother, if the valuation of your "investment" grows faster than what you can get from rent? In markets like these, huge increases in supply don't drive the prices down. Hoarding, speculation and housing flipping absorb everything that gets built. We still have insanely high housing prices today.
0xffff2 6y ago
>The crash will come once average suburbanites stop protesting everything denser than a half-acre single-family home and city councils realize that mixed-zoning is far more sustainable. So conversely, the crash will never come as long as average suburbanites continue to protest everything denser than a half-acre single-family home? Because I wouldn't bet on human nature changing any time soon.