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> Similar views were expressed about houses/real estate in 2007. Don't they always go up on average though? Even the much hyped 'housing crash' of 2008 only l

> Similar views were expressed about houses/real estate in 2007. Don't they always go up on average though? Even the much hyped 'housing crash' of 2008 only last for all of 3 yrs till 2011 after which they went zooming past the previous highs.

cogman10 6y ago
On average they always go up. However, with their upswing comes the occasional big downswings. This is why having a good asset mix is important. You shouldn't have no stocks, because they have really good returns on average. But on the flip side, having only stocks is somewhat risky because it's impossible to tell if you are buying on the topside or bottom side of a bubble.
jeffreyrogers 6y ago
That was with a large injection of money though. Maybe they will do the same thing next time, maybe not. Maybe it will have the same effect, maybe not. No one really knows.
divbzero 6y ago
Though real estate has gone up on average for the last several decades, this has not always been true as you can see from historical data. [1] [2] [3] [1]: https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnwake/2019/03/30/new-study-of-old-real-estate-bubbles-1582-1810-finds-two-surprising-similarities-with-modern-booms/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnwake/2019/03/30/new-study-o... "Old Real Estate Bubbles (1582-1810)" [2]: https://globalfinancialdata.com/seven-centuries-of-real-estate-prices https://globalfinancialdata.com/seven-centuries-of-real-esta... "Seven Centuries of Real Estate Prices" [3]: https://observationsandnotes.blogspot.com/2011/07/housing-prices-inflation-since-1900.html https://observationsandnotes.blogspot.com/2011/07/housing-pr... "100 Years of Inflation-Adjusted Housing Price History" ([3] is inflation-adjusted. For [2] see the second chart for inflation-adjusted prices. [1] is not inflation-adjusted but there wasn’t much inflation in Amsterdam back then.)
hundreddaysoff 6y ago
All markets stop eventually. There's no natural law saying they need to go up forever. Maybe you think they should keep going up, for whatever reason, and you might be right. But that's different than the fact that they increased on average in the past.
justin66 6y ago
> Don't they always go up on average though? It's not too far off to say that, in the long term, their real value does not go up, they just track inflation. Of course in recent years we live in Weird Times financially. https://www.multpl.com/case-shiller-home-price-index-inflation-adjusted https://www.multpl.com/case-shiller-home-price-index-inflati...

cogman10 6y ago

On average they always go up. However, with their upswing comes the occasional big downswings. This is why having a good asset mix is important. You shouldn't have no stocks, because they have really good returns on average. But on the flip side, having only stocks is somewhat risky because it's impossible to tell if you are buying on the topside or bottom side of a bubble.

jeffreyrogers 6y ago

That was with a large injection of money though. Maybe they will do the same thing next time, maybe not. Maybe it will have the same effect, maybe not. No one really knows.

divbzero 6y ago

Though real estate has gone up on average for the last several decades, this has not always been true as you can see from historical data. [1] [2] [3] [1]: https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnwake/2019/03/30/new-study-of-old-real-estate-bubbles-1582-1810-finds-two-surprising-similarities-with-modern-booms/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnwake/2019/03/30/new-study-o... "Old Real Estate Bubbles (1582-1810)" [2]: https://globalfinancialdata.com/seven-centuries-of-real-estate-prices https://globalfinancialdata.com/seven-centuries-of-real-esta... "Seven Centuries of Real Estate Prices" [3]: https://observationsandnotes.blogspot.com/2011/07/housing-prices-inflation-since-1900.html https://observationsandnotes.blogspot.com/2011/07/housing-pr... "100 Years of Inflation-Adjusted Housing Price History" ([3] is inflation-adjusted. For [2] see the second chart for inflation-adjusted prices. [1] is not inflation-adjusted but there wasn’t much inflation in Amsterdam back then.)

hundreddaysoff 6y ago

All markets stop eventually. There's no natural law saying they need to go up forever. Maybe you think they should keep going up, for whatever reason, and you might be right. But that's different than the fact that they increased on average in the past.

justin66 6y ago

> Don't they always go up on average though? It's not too far off to say that, in the long term, their real value does not go up, they just track inflation. Of course in recent years we live in Weird Times financially. https://www.multpl.com/case-shiller-home-price-index-inflation-adjusted https://www.multpl.com/case-shiller-home-price-index-inflati...