4 ms·
Its amazing to me how people always want to analyze everything in terms of the Smartphone market. This is nonsense. It simply doesn't make sense. They are comp
by nickik 6y ago
Its amazing to me how people always want to analyze everything in terms of the Smartphone market.
This is nonsense. It simply doesn't make sense. They are completely different industries, completely different players and very different geopolitics.
One is a tiny consumer product for your pocket that gets replaced every 2-3 years that is easy to transport, the other is a huge consumer product people often keep for 5-10 years that is hard to transport.
Sure, both have Li-Ion battery but again its totally different. In a phone the battery is a small part of the overall price, while for a car its a huge factor in the overall price.
Tesla is not like Apple, in many ways and Volkswagen is not like Samsung in many ways. Tesla is like Apple in some ways but not in others. The same for VW.
The car market simply does not operate like the cellphone market, the role of software is different. The geopolitics are different, every 'Western' government that has a car industry is bent on defending it. Even outside of that, producing cars is such a massive capital intensive business that hits your cash-flow localization of production is basically a requirement for the biggest players.
Tesla is amazingly successful and have a strategy of strong vertical integration. They have a tech future centered image promising fun, good performance and environmentally friendly. They are building up localized production of a few models that they want to sell in very high numbers globally. They are hell bent on increasing battery production and on solving self driving.
Tesla will continue to grow at a quite rapid rate year over year and no matter if other EV come into the market that will likely not destroy Tesla growth anytime soon. Tesla is one of the largest costumers of all of the major battery companies and is turning itself into one of the largest battery producers as well. That alone is a huge advantage as with the continuing cost curves, it is likely almost all EV that can be produced, will be produced and will be sold.
They have also smartly invested in charging network and are an omnipresent symbol of EV along all major routes in the developed world and they are expanding that network every day.
VW is the first really big monster company that has fully realized not just that it needs to be done, but also that all the talk about how the car industry talk about how easy EV were and if they wanted Tesla would be crushed is not the case. Going into EV on large scale is breathtakingly difficult and VW has mobilized the whole company, made huge investment both in suppliers both now and future suppliers, they have transform their internal plans (of all their companies) and are trying to execute. They are doing quite a good job along most levels.
VW and Tesla will both be large parts of the EV future, whatever will happen in terms of mobility service, self-driving and so on.
There are open question for VW about how to transition such a large company but Tesla also have open question about continuing to execute a massive growth strategy. Both companies are set up for success if they continue to execute at a high level.