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Out of anyone, Nissan I think has a better chance to become a dominant EV player, they've got a decade of experience with the LEAF. They were running a bit beh

Out of anyone, Nissan I think has a better chance to become a dominant EV player, they've got a decade of experience with the LEAF. They were running a bit behind, but Ariya looks a lot more mature than the id.4.

DoingIsLearning 6y ago
The thing is EV for the masses needs a price point that more closely competes with ICE (even if with a shorter range). The US centric 'luxury' EV will always be marginal in other cost-sensitive markets. I do think Nissan's know-how will play a role but much more likely that the actual sales numbers will come from the Alliance's more agressive cost-cutting brands like Renault or even Dacia.
oblio 6y ago
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_Group_MEB_platform#Applications https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_Group_MEB_platfor... Volkswagen is about to launch many electric modele across many brands, using a single modular platform.
marticode 6y ago
VW has the financial health and scale to muscle in more easily than Nissan (which isn't doing so well right now). I feel the difficulty of making EVs has been vastly exaggerated - any manufacturer that knows how to make an hybrid knows how to make an EV.
- m_mueller 6y ago
  > any manufacturer that knows how to make an hybrid knows how to make an EV. they do. they however do not seem to understand how to build up a good charging infastructure.
  - hef19898 6y ago
    That might be Tesla's biggest value contribution, building and forcing others to build charging infrastructure. Doesn't necessarily have to be the OEM. Right now no car company is running fuel stations nor are oil companies building cars.
- usrusr 6y ago
  But no manufacturer including Tesla seems to know how to make EVs profitable outside the extended luxury segment. Lower end EV like id.3 are basically the cheapest viable way to attach wheels and seats to the battery pack that doesn't completely ruin the brand. It's not a bad thing, ICE have grown quite wasteful in terms of "how expensive can you make a light switch?", but the price math is very different from ICE. Previously it was "we want to take $X from the customer who buys the car, what can we cram into the package so that they feel they got something appropriate in return?", whereas for EV it's more liked "the battery is $X, $X+$tiny is the highest we could possibly demand, we need to find the least embarrassing car we can build around that battery for $tiny". Tesla's innovation was starting EV at the luxury end of the market, all previous attempts were doing the opposite. Compared to that all other Tesla innovations are insignificant, no matter how big they are on their own.
  - hef19898 6y ago
    Personally, I expect a lot from smaller, entry level EVs based on existing ICE platforms. They can be built on the same lines as their ICE cousins, share a lot of common parts and cheaper to develop. Switching to higher volumes will come at the expense of their ICE cousins, so capacity at the factory isn't much of an issue neither. Higher volumes should also make them cheaper, the EVs, due to economies of scale. Sure, that's no dedicated EV platform. But who really cares for cars one size class smaller than a Golf, or the same?
    - usrusr 6y ago
      ICE power trains can be about as cheap to manufacture as 50 miles worth of battery. Reusing ICE designs and manufacturing won't introduce cheaper electrics, it would introduce more expensive electrics.
Robotbeat 6y ago
You would think so, but Toyota has TWO decades of experience with the Prius, and yet Tesla kicks both of their butts. Still. And I know it’s still fashionable to bash Tesla on HN (Tesla is one of the few companies still pursuing customer-owned self-driving capability even after the overall hype curve has peaked and they haven’t yet reached their goal, so they get lots of grief for that, some of which is understandable), but their electric car offerings are head and shoulders above anyone else still. I’m looking forward to more competition that actually meets Tesla’s level of performance, maybe Rivian (when will they deliver?) or Lucid. The other pure electric cars on the market especially in the US are like toys in comparison (although still can be good value and better than conventional cars). VW I hope will have a good showing, though. Still no one is really pursuing a good charging network solution that is seamless & practical like Tesla’s.
nickik 6y ago
Disagree. VW and Tesla have been doing EV for almost as long or longer. And since then have made far, far more investment into it then Nissan. Just doing basically 1 car not updating it much and then not doing anything for many years while losing many billions at same time, is literally the exact opposite of being in a great position. The Ariya is their first car after a long time and based on all the reviews I have seen it has not blown anybodies mind. Overall Nissan volume are small and they are nowhere near as deep in terms of battery supply chain as Tesla or VW.

DoingIsLearning 6y ago

The thing is EV for the masses needs a price point that more closely competes with ICE (even if with a shorter range). The US centric 'luxury' EV will always be marginal in other cost-sensitive markets. I do think Nissan's know-how will play a role but much more likely that the actual sales numbers will come from the Alliance's more agressive cost-cutting brands like Renault or even Dacia.

oblio 6y ago

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_Group_MEB_platform#Applications https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_Group_MEB_platfor... Volkswagen is about to launch many electric modele across many brands, using a single modular platform.

marticode 6y ago

VW has the financial health and scale to muscle in more easily than Nissan (which isn't doing so well right now). I feel the difficulty of making EVs has been vastly exaggerated - any manufacturer that knows how to make an hybrid knows how to make an EV.

m_mueller 6y ago
> any manufacturer that knows how to make an hybrid knows how to make an EV. they do. they however do not seem to understand how to build up a good charging infastructure.
- hef19898 6y ago
  That might be Tesla's biggest value contribution, building and forcing others to build charging infrastructure. Doesn't necessarily have to be the OEM. Right now no car company is running fuel stations nor are oil companies building cars.
usrusr 6y ago
But no manufacturer including Tesla seems to know how to make EVs profitable outside the extended luxury segment. Lower end EV like id.3 are basically the cheapest viable way to attach wheels and seats to the battery pack that doesn't completely ruin the brand. It's not a bad thing, ICE have grown quite wasteful in terms of "how expensive can you make a light switch?", but the price math is very different from ICE. Previously it was "we want to take $X from the customer who buys the car, what can we cram into the package so that they feel they got something appropriate in return?", whereas for EV it's more liked "the battery is $X, $X+$tiny is the highest we could possibly demand, we need to find the least embarrassing car we can build around that battery for $tiny". Tesla's innovation was starting EV at the luxury end of the market, all previous attempts were doing the opposite. Compared to that all other Tesla innovations are insignificant, no matter how big they are on their own.
- hef19898 6y ago
  Personally, I expect a lot from smaller, entry level EVs based on existing ICE platforms. They can be built on the same lines as their ICE cousins, share a lot of common parts and cheaper to develop. Switching to higher volumes will come at the expense of their ICE cousins, so capacity at the factory isn't much of an issue neither. Higher volumes should also make them cheaper, the EVs, due to economies of scale. Sure, that's no dedicated EV platform. But who really cares for cars one size class smaller than a Golf, or the same?
  - usrusr 6y ago
    ICE power trains can be about as cheap to manufacture as 50 miles worth of battery. Reusing ICE designs and manufacturing won't introduce cheaper electrics, it would introduce more expensive electrics.

Robotbeat 6y ago

You would think so, but Toyota has TWO decades of experience with the Prius, and yet Tesla kicks both of their butts. Still. And I know it’s still fashionable to bash Tesla on HN (Tesla is one of the few companies still pursuing customer-owned self-driving capability even after the overall hype curve has peaked and they haven’t yet reached their goal, so they get lots of grief for that, some of which is understandable), but their electric car offerings are head and shoulders above anyone else still. I’m looking forward to more competition that actually meets Tesla’s level of performance, maybe Rivian (when will they deliver?) or Lucid. The other pure electric cars on the market especially in the US are like toys in comparison (although still can be good value and better than conventional cars). VW I hope will have a good showing, though. Still no one is really pursuing a good charging network solution that is seamless & practical like Tesla’s.

nickik 6y ago

Disagree. VW and Tesla have been doing EV for almost as long or longer. And since then have made far, far more investment into it then Nissan. Just doing basically 1 car not updating it much and then not doing anything for many years while losing many billions at same time, is literally the exact opposite of being in a great position. The Ariya is their first car after a long time and based on all the reviews I have seen it has not blown anybodies mind. Overall Nissan volume are small and they are nowhere near as deep in terms of battery supply chain as Tesla or VW.