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> which not too many black Americans are doing, BTW It’s pretty hard to measure such a statement, but I noticed that Trump won 8% of the black vote in 2020 and

> which not too many black Americans are doing, BTW It’s pretty hard to measure such a statement, but I noticed that Trump won 8% of the black vote in 2020 and 6% in 2016. [0] And it seems Romney won 6% in 2012. [1] It’s not smart to extrapolate some trend from these three data points, but I don’t think its accurate to dismiss claims that this isn’t happening. Comically, dismissing the claims of a literal black person walking away from the left speaking of others in vis community is sort of like what the author is saying happens with people patronizing black persons and making decisions for them (eg, “it’s not happening” and “master offends you”). [0] https://www.vox.com/2020/11/4/21537966/trump-black-voters-exit-polls https://www.vox.com/2020/11/4/21537966/trump-black-voters-ex... [1] http://ropercenter.cornell.edu/how-groups-voted-2012 http://ropercenter.cornell.edu/how-groups-voted-2012

pron 6y ago
I am not dismissing any claims, but having a >90% party allegiance based on ethnicity is such an extreme situation, that ascribing reversions to one aspect of the left (which, true enough, the right wants to focus on), is just projection and also an exaggeration. I saw a recent interview with David Shor [1], who said that the conservative/progressive split in the US (based on self-identification, IIRC) is about 60/40 across all ethnicities, but that many vote based on reasons other than ideology. But now we're seeing a trend across the board, where people's votes increasingly align more with ideology. So many conservative blacks vote Democrat, and might be shifting away because of a general emphasis on ideology. [1]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SQ8UDzUvMg0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SQ8UDzUvMg0
- eli_gottlieb 6y ago
  That actually makes perfect sense of the "walking away" talk, though. It was extreme and unusual in the first place that ardent conservatives would vote for the same political party as socialist activists based solely on race or identity. That was really weird, actually, and an end to that kind of thing is just "reversion to the mean" of people voting for what they actually believe in.
  - pron 6y ago
    Sure, but they were attributing it to a very specific cause rather than general ideological disagreement, not to mention that the number of black people walking away from the Democratic party is not large, certainly compared to the level of support.
pjc50 6y ago
Surely the point is that if you cite one person, you can claim anything? Whether that's of the left or the right. You have to look a little closer to see whether that's a common or a fringe view and among what group of people.
hannofcart 6y ago
I don't consider myself informed enough about this subject to detract from your assertions, but confining myself to the stats you presented, the trend of 6(2012), 6(2016) and 8(2020) seems to bolster the 'status quo' claim, that Black Americans are NOT leaving the left (Dems), rather than undermine it, does it not? I could be missing something here for sure. Like I mentioned am not well versed in American race politics nor in statistics.
- vmception 6y ago
  It does suggest that Also add this to your data collection efforts: 1) A lot of black people don't identify as black on government forms. Whether it is for the census, some voter form I might not be aware of, a vaccine enrollment, or on a standardized test in the private sector. Out of previously substantiated fear of worse treatment or discrimination, but an inability to tell which contexts and future contexts. There won’t be data on this. 2) A lot (maybe most?) of black people don't live in states where their vote really matters for the Presidency or the Senate. Population centers, California, New York. While there is also a cultural pride in leveraging the earned ability to vote (and sustained ability at the individual level, as felons have their rights removed in many states). So there are additional deterrents in wasting it on non-consensus views of that state. 3) The way I saw the data collected about % of black people voting seemed to be based surveys, and not really cross referencing all voter data with the census. Feel free to correct my understanding and I would like to read more about that.
tikiman163 6y ago
These numbers require more context to be meaningful. First, this was for his second term, which typically sees an increase in support. Second, Biden was instrumental in quite a few policies over the years that were generally bad for black Americans, and he was extremely critical of the BLM and police reform (de-fund) movements. Third, the percentage of black Americans which don't live in poverty has increased, and middle class black Americans are more likely to be fiscally conservative for the same reasons that all middle class Americans are more likely to be fiscal conservatives than those who live below the poverty line.
- ta988 6y ago
  The right was also extremely critical of BLM (calling them terrorists) and de-fund. But not all black people defend those anyway. The wealth argument seems much more plausible to me.

pron 6y ago

I am not dismissing any claims, but having a >90% party allegiance based on ethnicity is such an extreme situation, that ascribing reversions to one aspect of the left (which, true enough, the right wants to focus on), is just projection and also an exaggeration. I saw a recent interview with David Shor [1], who said that the conservative/progressive split in the US (based on self-identification, IIRC) is about 60/40 across all ethnicities, but that many vote based on reasons other than ideology. But now we're seeing a trend across the board, where people's votes increasingly align more with ideology. So many conservative blacks vote Democrat, and might be shifting away because of a general emphasis on ideology. [1]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SQ8UDzUvMg0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SQ8UDzUvMg0

eli_gottlieb 6y ago
That actually makes perfect sense of the "walking away" talk, though. It was extreme and unusual in the first place that ardent conservatives would vote for the same political party as socialist activists based solely on race or identity. That was really weird, actually, and an end to that kind of thing is just "reversion to the mean" of people voting for what they actually believe in.
- pron 6y ago
  Sure, but they were attributing it to a very specific cause rather than general ideological disagreement, not to mention that the number of black people walking away from the Democratic party is not large, certainly compared to the level of support.

pjc50 6y ago

Surely the point is that if you cite one person, you can claim anything? Whether that's of the left or the right. You have to look a little closer to see whether that's a common or a fringe view and among what group of people.

hannofcart 6y ago

I don't consider myself informed enough about this subject to detract from your assertions, but confining myself to the stats you presented, the trend of 6(2012), 6(2016) and 8(2020) seems to bolster the 'status quo' claim, that Black Americans are NOT leaving the left (Dems), rather than undermine it, does it not? I could be missing something here for sure. Like I mentioned am not well versed in American race politics nor in statistics.

vmception 6y ago
It does suggest that Also add this to your data collection efforts: 1) A lot of black people don't identify as black on government forms. Whether it is for the census, some voter form I might not be aware of, a vaccine enrollment, or on a standardized test in the private sector. Out of previously substantiated fear of worse treatment or discrimination, but an inability to tell which contexts and future contexts. There won’t be data on this. 2) A lot (maybe most?) of black people don't live in states where their vote really matters for the Presidency or the Senate. Population centers, California, New York. While there is also a cultural pride in leveraging the earned ability to vote (and sustained ability at the individual level, as felons have their rights removed in many states). So there are additional deterrents in wasting it on non-consensus views of that state. 3) The way I saw the data collected about % of black people voting seemed to be based surveys, and not really cross referencing all voter data with the census. Feel free to correct my understanding and I would like to read more about that.

tikiman163 6y ago

These numbers require more context to be meaningful. First, this was for his second term, which typically sees an increase in support. Second, Biden was instrumental in quite a few policies over the years that were generally bad for black Americans, and he was extremely critical of the BLM and police reform (de-fund) movements. Third, the percentage of black Americans which don't live in poverty has increased, and middle class black Americans are more likely to be fiscally conservative for the same reasons that all middle class Americans are more likely to be fiscal conservatives than those who live below the poverty line.

ta988 6y ago
The right was also extremely critical of BLM (calling them terrorists) and de-fund. But not all black people defend those anyway. The wealth argument seems much more plausible to me.