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As BurningFrog says, please find an actual human analogy. You can argue until your face is blue that this applies to humans, but if so you should be able to fin
by simonh 6y ago
As BurningFrog says, please find an actual human analogy. You can argue until your face is blue that this applies to humans, but if so you should be able to find an actual example.
Meanwhile developed world economies are close to full employment and have many more vacant positions than unemployed people. We have a skills problem, not an unemployment problem.
- ben_w 6y agoAn example would be “due to X, essentially all humans are unemployable, except as sources of entertainment for the rich, or as meat”. As this is also the conclusion, it can’t be used as an in-advance example for why the argument is or isn’t reasonable. (Inverse begging the question, I think? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Begging_the_question https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Begging_the_question)
- simonh 6y agoI honestly have no idea what you're trying to say.
- ben_w 6y agoI’m saying “if so you should be able to find an actual example.” is false. CGP Grey argued (paraphrased) “if X happens in the future, Y will be like Z”, you are arguing that Y will never be like Z in the future because Y is not currently like Z.
- simonh 6y agoBut X has happened many times, and Y has never yet become like Z. Automation has replaced workers on massive, ginormous, gigantuan scales. Factories have replaced manual workers, then more efficient factories have replaced those factories, and then that's happened again several times over. Yet still we have near full employment and many, many more open positions than we have unemployed. How long are we supposed to wait for this prediction to come true, and how many times does this have to be disproved across how many economies?
- ben_w 6y agoX is “AGI invented”. Not special purpose AI, not automation, AGI — the G stands for “general”. If this has ever happened, it wasn’t on Earth (unless you count evolution producing us, in which case the example is “Neanderthals are all dead”).
- simonh 6y agoI don't see what that's got to do with horses then. It seems like that's just completely obscuring the point.
- ben_w 6y agoI see. I don’t know how to rephrase it to be better, but I’ll have a go: Horses represent the importance of muscle power in the economy, which was made vanishing small by mechanisation; AGI would do the same for intellectual labour.