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I've been predicting something like this since about 2005, long before recent events. It just it felt like it was far off in the future, not something happenin

I've been predicting something like this since about 2005, long before recent events. It just it felt like it was far off in the future, not something happening right now. The other major factor is a demographic crisis: worldwide, we have a large bulge in the number of people who are just about hitting 30 in 2020. Historically, when a lot of people reach reproductive years and there aren't the resources needed to support all of them having families, violence and social instability tends to result. This has been predictable since all these kids were born in the 90s, but obviously I'd hoped it'd go differently and technology would find some way to alleviate resource limits. Now we're here and seeing all the discontent from peoples' lives not turning out quite how they envisioned as kids.

314 6y ago
Ah, so you read what you want to hear into current events and seek confirmation bias. Your whole world-view comes off as a bit prepper / Great Replacement-crank.
- nostrademons 6y ago
  It's the nature of negative black swan events that there's always a reason to believe they won't happen right up until they do. If you hold these beliefs over a long-period of time, based on long-term societal trends, "your whole world-view comes off as a bit prepper / Great Replacement-crank". If recent events bear you out, it's Availability / Recency bias. If the events actually come true, then we won't be discussing it on an Internet message board, we'll either be dead or spending our effort trying to survive, in a perverse form of Survivorship Bias. Nevertheless, we know from history that these events do occur, and they occur much more frequently than those of us alive now believe (again a form of survivorship bias - folks that don't live in a time of peace tend not to survive). The 250-year stability of the United States - and the 75-year Pax Americana after WW2 - is a historical anomaly. The article gives a bunch of reasons why the 2020s will be different, financially, from the 1980-2020 period, and I gave a bunch of reasons why it'll be different sociopolitically. You can choose to believe them or not, but I (and Dalio) at least explained the dynamics that lead me to believe them.
SyzygistSix 6y ago
Recent generations in the US are pretty meek and well-mannered, and not exactly dripping with confidence.

314 6y ago

Ah, so you read what you want to hear into current events and seek confirmation bias. Your whole world-view comes off as a bit prepper / Great Replacement-crank.

nostrademons 6y ago
It's the nature of negative black swan events that there's always a reason to believe they won't happen right up until they do. If you hold these beliefs over a long-period of time, based on long-term societal trends, "your whole world-view comes off as a bit prepper / Great Replacement-crank". If recent events bear you out, it's Availability / Recency bias. If the events actually come true, then we won't be discussing it on an Internet message board, we'll either be dead or spending our effort trying to survive, in a perverse form of Survivorship Bias. Nevertheless, we know from history that these events do occur, and they occur much more frequently than those of us alive now believe (again a form of survivorship bias - folks that don't live in a time of peace tend not to survive). The 250-year stability of the United States - and the 75-year Pax Americana after WW2 - is a historical anomaly. The article gives a bunch of reasons why the 2020s will be different, financially, from the 1980-2020 period, and I gave a bunch of reasons why it'll be different sociopolitically. You can choose to believe them or not, but I (and Dalio) at least explained the dynamics that lead me to believe them.

SyzygistSix 6y ago

Recent generations in the US are pretty meek and well-mannered, and not exactly dripping with confidence.