I knocked together a quick Collab for this; feel free to clone and work with it. https://colab.research.google.com/drive/1C7K3u3vKrIMt-sa4_t3F_RvYt0g-dn_B?usp=

I knocked together a quick Collab for this; feel free to clone and work with it. https://colab.research.google.com/drive/1C7K3u3vKrIMt-sa4_t3F_RvYt0g-dn_B?usp=sharing https://colab.research.google.com/drive/1C7K3u3vKrIMt-sa4_t3... The first cell is the model I was building, I finally got it into reasonable shape. It comes from the published national statistics for death rates. (Comments welcome, I just sketched this to help me think about the numbers here. No claim on this actually being right.) The second cell is my attempt at rendering your initial calc, though I've not folded in the base rate changes. We can go into the weeds there but looking at the results I don't think we need to; my calcs naively attribute all the blood clot cases to the vaccine and still give COVID as being worse than the vaccinations by a factor of 400-800. The way you're thinking about base rates sounds right to me though, and it does sound like the best guess is we're at something like 4x above base rate. Given that I implemented my model with a completely different approach and we're both within a factor of 2 (if I've rendered yours correctly) I think we're in the right ballpark here, at least for "Fermi calculation" level of completeness. Guardian article with more numbers: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/16/benefits-of-astrazeneca-jab-outweigh-risks-says-eu-regulator https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/16/benefits-of-as...