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I respect Sam and believe that his thinking is usually a few years ahead of mine - with passage of time, I generally tend to agree with his statements more and
by aerosmile 6y ago
I respect Sam and believe that his thinking is usually a few years ahead of mine - with passage of time, I generally tend to agree with his statements more and more. He seems really bullish on AI, and while he might be a bit biased based on his current role, I think that his public statements are truly authentic because he's putting his money where his mouth is (he left a coveted role at YC for his current role at OpenAI).
That just makes me worry that we're likely to enter an AI cycle in entrepreneurship that will be characterized by high barriers to entry for new entrepreneurs. I have so many ideas for future companies, and none of them will be feasible if in each vertical I have to compete against companies with mature AI capabilities. I suppose there is a possibility of someone offering AI as a service that will be good enough to go up against the FAANG companies, but I imagine that anyone with such capabilities might be more likely to just own the whole opportunity (eg: Red Antler switching from helping startups with brand building to Red Antler building their own brands). I think there are still opportunities out there for a VC-backed company that starts out in a garage, but that window seems to be closing - for both, entrepreneurs and VCs as well (FAANG companies are not going to take any venture capital).
I really hope I am wrong and would love to hear counterpoints (apart from the usual "they have been saying this for the last 50 years and it always turned out different"). It's important to realize that 50 years ago the world was very different for entrepreneurs, and I have no reason to believe that the current cycle is just that - a cycle that will pass and that the world will return to its previous state of making it exceptionally difficult to go up against big companies. The best counterargument I can offer is PG's essay on the history of corporations and how startups will become a permanent part of our future (don't have the time to look up the link, but hope that someone else can find it).
- ZephyrBlu 6y agoI envision the complete opposite. In 10 years I think there will be many companies who offer high quality AI services. I'm not worried that these companies will just have their cake and eat it too because there's bound to be someone who would unbundle the AI from the product. I even think it's more valuable to do that than building your own AI-powered product because then you're a service provider, which generally seems like a cushy place place to be.