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When I saw the $1.9 trillion stimulus pass I took that as a good signal to add to some existing crypto positions. I stick to index futures and options on those

When I saw the $1.9 trillion stimulus pass I took that as a good signal to add to some existing crypto positions. I stick to index futures and options on those futures myself but a friend of mine is deep into trading crypto. After a few drinks we were at his place just last Sunday and he was showing me charts and what not explaining his methodology for trading. It was absolutely alien to me considering the things I commonly trade. Even funnier to me than How The Expert Does It was the fact that it's been working for some time. That very night he correctly called the big down move we just saw and correctly (so far) picked up where the fall back support would be. As always the situation is in progress... The funny thing is that I'd be laughing my ass off at such cargo cult voodoo if he hadn't made so much money.

ed25519FUUU 6y ago
It will be seen whether or not crypto is a good investment for inflation. In the short term, I think it is. In the long term I think inflation devours the world. When the stability of the US goes, so does the world.
paulpauper 6y ago
how much is "so much money" are we talking about. I have found that people tend to overestimate what they think is a lot.
- SavageBeast 6y ago
  Absolutely! I find people are good about over reporting their gains and under reporting their losses myself. He mentioned some numbers in the multiple tens of thousands for the month (for whatever it was worth). If thats true he's easily making more than my software dev salary if he's able to do it regularly. But why would such a thing be so hard? These markets are volatile and it's there if you know how to take it. It's a hard game to make it in long term. Ive always told people "Making money on winning trades is almost hilariously easy - its holding on to it thats the hard part". 1 - Generate signals that end up working out 50% of the time. 2 - Structure the game such that your winners are 3-7x your losers (depending on conditions here). 3 - Automate daily back testing on real bid/ask prices and arrive at a moving average of your stop/exit thresholds - allow your thresholds to flex a bit with market conditions. 4 - Keep at least 1.5x margin requirements as reserves and never bend from this no matter how many contracts you might trade if you leveraged your entire account. 5 - I find it immensely helpful to only evaluate how many contracts to trade 1x/month. Longer is fine but whatever you do, don't take a windfall profit and immediately pile on more contracts for the next trade. Give me ^ES and ^NQ any day of the week personally.

ed25519FUUU 6y ago

It will be seen whether or not crypto is a good investment for inflation. In the short term, I think it is. In the long term I think inflation devours the world. When the stability of the US goes, so does the world.

paulpauper 6y ago

how much is "so much money" are we talking about. I have found that people tend to overestimate what they think is a lot.

SavageBeast 6y ago
Absolutely! I find people are good about over reporting their gains and under reporting their losses myself. He mentioned some numbers in the multiple tens of thousands for the month (for whatever it was worth). If thats true he's easily making more than my software dev salary if he's able to do it regularly. But why would such a thing be so hard? These markets are volatile and it's there if you know how to take it. It's a hard game to make it in long term. Ive always told people "Making money on winning trades is almost hilariously easy - its holding on to it thats the hard part". 1 - Generate signals that end up working out 50% of the time. 2 - Structure the game such that your winners are 3-7x your losers (depending on conditions here). 3 - Automate daily back testing on real bid/ask prices and arrive at a moving average of your stop/exit thresholds - allow your thresholds to flex a bit with market conditions. 4 - Keep at least 1.5x margin requirements as reserves and never bend from this no matter how many contracts you might trade if you leveraged your entire account. 5 - I find it immensely helpful to only evaluate how many contracts to trade 1x/month. Longer is fine but whatever you do, don't take a windfall profit and immediately pile on more contracts for the next trade. Give me ^ES and ^NQ any day of the week personally.