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Talking about bets after the roulette wheel has stopped is not very interesting. Anyone can see after the fact that the ball stopped on red 12, or the price of

Talking about bets after the roulette wheel has stopped is not very interesting. Anyone can see after the fact that the ball stopped on red 12, or the price of something has increased. So can you tell me what I should invest this new stimulus in to get 8x returns?

viklove 6y ago
$1.4k isn't much to most HN users, so I would tell you to invest it in crypto if you don't own any yet. I'm not saying you should take out a mortgage to buy crypto, but if 2-10% of your portfolio isn't already crypto, then you should really fix that. The chance that ETH gets a 500% return from now until the end of the year is about 50%, in my opinion.
- AnimalMuppet 6y ago
  > The chance that ETH gets a 500% return from now until the end of the year is about 50%, in my opinion. If I were a betting man, I would be willing to wager any amount you named that you are wrong. (Seriously, any amount up to my maximum ability to raise. If it were more than I were comfortable losing, I'd buy ETH for about 1/3 the dollar amount of the bet, and make money no matter what happened.)
  - viklove 6y ago
    https://ethereumprice.org/guides/article/how-to-short-ethereum/ https://ethereumprice.org/guides/article/how-to-short-ethere... I am a betting man, and have a not-insignificant amount of money wagered on my position. Put your money where your mouth is. Go take out a loan, and use the cash to short ETH. Otherwise it's obvious that you're just full of hot air and have no conviction.
    - AnimalMuppet 6y ago
      There is a lot of room between shorting (betting it will go down) and betting that it will not go up by as much as 500% by the end of the year. I never said I thought it would go down. But you're right. I lack the conviction to act on something that aren't actually my convictions.
      - viklove 6y ago
        Okay, then go take out a loan and sell some covered calls. You'll make money on the premiums. Why aren't you doing that?

viklove 6y ago

$1.4k isn't much to most HN users, so I would tell you to invest it in crypto if you don't own any yet. I'm not saying you should take out a mortgage to buy crypto, but if 2-10% of your portfolio isn't already crypto, then you should really fix that. The chance that ETH gets a 500% return from now until the end of the year is about 50%, in my opinion.

AnimalMuppet 6y ago
> The chance that ETH gets a 500% return from now until the end of the year is about 50%, in my opinion. If I were a betting man, I would be willing to wager any amount you named that you are wrong. (Seriously, any amount up to my maximum ability to raise. If it were more than I were comfortable losing, I'd buy ETH for about 1/3 the dollar amount of the bet, and make money no matter what happened.)
- viklove 6y ago
  https://ethereumprice.org/guides/article/how-to-short-ethereum/ https://ethereumprice.org/guides/article/how-to-short-ethere... I am a betting man, and have a not-insignificant amount of money wagered on my position. Put your money where your mouth is. Go take out a loan, and use the cash to short ETH. Otherwise it's obvious that you're just full of hot air and have no conviction.
  - AnimalMuppet 6y ago
    There is a lot of room between shorting (betting it will go down) and betting that it will not go up by as much as 500% by the end of the year. I never said I thought it would go down. But you're right. I lack the conviction to act on something that aren't actually my convictions.
    - viklove 6y ago
      Okay, then go take out a loan and sell some covered calls. You'll make money on the premiums. Why aren't you doing that?