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A Black Swan in this context would be a shock to the system that no one saw coming nor could see coming. For instance a change in the sun which would drasticall
by jswinghammer 15y ago
A Black Swan in this context would be a shock to the system that no one saw coming nor could see coming. For instance a change in the sun which would drastically warm or cool the earth far beyond the effects of CO2. Maybe a natural disaster or an industrial accident that had a cascade effect that would reach beyond what anyone could have seen coming. You can't do anything about either of these things but that won't stop people from suggesting it could have been avoided with the right (or more of): "fill in the blank with your favorite solution to all problems in life."
- leot 15y agoNot entirely -- it's better to think of "unknown unknowns" that current circumstances might well contribute to the probability of occurring. We might know of 10 events that all "only" have a 1% chance of occurring, causing us to estimate risk of any one occurring at 10%. But because of how much everything is getting mucked with, there might not be 10 events that have a 1% chance, but instead 50, or 100.