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IDC: Windows Phones to Overtake iPhone iOS by 2015

7 points by tshtf 15y ago

zephjc 15y ago
If Microsoft had any vision, maybe they could, but they are pretty much reactionary these days.
tgrisfal 15y ago
I'll believe it when I see it, or possibly even later.
daimyoyo 15y ago
Considering that by 2015 iOS will be on all (remaining) us carriers by then, I seriously doubt it. Unless Apple shows up with an Etselesque iPhone 5, it's highly unlikely that Apple will be seriously affected by windows phones.
mmcconnell1618 15y ago
Go to a tech conference. Count MacBooks to PCs and tell me again why the army of devs that choose Apple today will suddenly write apps for a soon to be dead Silverlight SDK?
- dman 15y ago
  There might be other arguments to make the point you want to but mass developer adoption is not one of them. Circa 1998 your line could have been - "Go to a tech conference. Count PCs to Macbooks and tell me again why the army of devs that choose Microsoft today will suddenly write apps for a soon to be dead <insert technology here>?". Developers largely follow users - so I look at apples enthusiastic userbase as a much more effective moat than Apple's popularity with developers.
bradleyland 15y ago
Apple has already "diversified" their iPhone line-up, as IDC suggests they should. I would expect that Apple will continue their trend of keeping a previous generation device available at a significant discount. Currently, you can purchas an iPhone 3GS for $50. That's well within reach of the commodity smartphone buyer.
- dagw 15y ago
  $50 + a high monthly contract. If you're willing to accept an arbitrarily high monthly fee, then you can buy basically anything for $50. At least here in Sweden the 8GB 3GS is almost 4 times more expensive than the cheapest Android phone (both without contract). Until you can buy an Apple phone for $200 without any sort of contract then they'll still be far off from competing with Android in the lower end of the price spectrum.
  - bradleyland 15y ago
    Yeah, I guess the article does say "worldwide" market share. It's difficult, as a US consumer, to develop a view of overseas markets because things are so different here. In the US, the differentiation you mention doesn't even exist, because all phones here come with a contract. Even obtaining "no contract" prices is difficult, and when you do get them, you still buy a locked phone that can't be used on another carrier. It's like dealing with an organized crime syndicate.
askar 15y ago
What will iOS be by 2015? When we are not able to predict what comes after iOS 5 how can IDC predict/project an arbitrary conclusion? Just doesn't make any sense!

7 points by tshtf 15y ago

zephjc 15y ago

If Microsoft had any vision, maybe they could, but they are pretty much reactionary these days.

tgrisfal 15y ago

I'll believe it when I see it, or possibly even later.

daimyoyo 15y ago

Considering that by 2015 iOS will be on all (remaining) us carriers by then, I seriously doubt it. Unless Apple shows up with an Etselesque iPhone 5, it's highly unlikely that Apple will be seriously affected by windows phones.

mmcconnell1618 15y ago

Go to a tech conference. Count MacBooks to PCs and tell me again why the army of devs that choose Apple today will suddenly write apps for a soon to be dead Silverlight SDK?

dman 15y ago
There might be other arguments to make the point you want to but mass developer adoption is not one of them. Circa 1998 your line could have been - "Go to a tech conference. Count PCs to Macbooks and tell me again why the army of devs that choose Microsoft today will suddenly write apps for a soon to be dead <insert technology here>?". Developers largely follow users - so I look at apples enthusiastic userbase as a much more effective moat than Apple's popularity with developers.

bradleyland 15y ago

Apple has already "diversified" their iPhone line-up, as IDC suggests they should. I would expect that Apple will continue their trend of keeping a previous generation device available at a significant discount. Currently, you can purchas an iPhone 3GS for $50. That's well within reach of the commodity smartphone buyer.

dagw 15y ago
$50 + a high monthly contract. If you're willing to accept an arbitrarily high monthly fee, then you can buy basically anything for $50. At least here in Sweden the 8GB 3GS is almost 4 times more expensive than the cheapest Android phone (both without contract). Until you can buy an Apple phone for $200 without any sort of contract then they'll still be far off from competing with Android in the lower end of the price spectrum.
- bradleyland 15y ago
  Yeah, I guess the article does say "worldwide" market share. It's difficult, as a US consumer, to develop a view of overseas markets because things are so different here. In the US, the differentiation you mention doesn't even exist, because all phones here come with a contract. Even obtaining "no contract" prices is difficult, and when you do get them, you still buy a locked phone that can't be used on another carrier. It's like dealing with an organized crime syndicate.

askar 15y ago

What will iOS be by 2015? When we are not able to predict what comes after iOS 5 how can IDC predict/project an arbitrary conclusion? Just doesn't make any sense!