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> Or alternatively, they wish to push the vaccines and end of lockdown into Spring/Summer, where natural seasonality will take care of COVID and give the appear

> Or alternatively, they wish to push the vaccines and end of lockdown into Spring/Summer, where natural seasonality will take care of COVID and give the appearance that lockdown and vaccines were a success. Did you somehow forget that this is the second year of Covid? We've already gone through the whole "natural seasonality" cycle and the disease is very much still here.

leereeves 6y ago
Take a look at this COVID daily trends graph from the CDC: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrends... From an average of about 50k cases reported daily in April through October to about 200k cases reported daily in November, December, and January, then back down to 60k by March. And there's a similar winter increase in the worldwide cases (some of which is from the US cases, but not all): https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/worldwide-graphs/#daily-cases https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/worldwide-graphs/#... It's impossible to be sure after just one year, but that hill in the winter certainly suggests a seasonal illness to me.
- Tarsul 6y ago
  yes, a certain seasonality is very probable. But with the variants we have right now (e.g. B1.1.7 from Kent), summer won't be enough to stem the tide. I'm saying this from a central european perspective (with not enough vaccinations either to help).
- addicted 6y ago
  Winter also corresponds with holiday seasons. Further, South American countries were some of the worst hit during the Nov - Feb timeline. South Africa was badly hit around this time. And all these are Southern Hemisphere countries that were experiencing summer around then. Now, there’s clear evidence that warmer weather makes things easier, since the virus has lower survivability outside a host in the heat, so all things equal, the spread would be lower in warmer weather, but it’s not so much lower that it can be considered seasonal, like the flu.
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- cmrdporcupine 6y ago
  It's not a surprise that an airborne virus spreads more during the time of year when people are spending more time indoors with their windows closed. Same reason it was rampant in the US subtropical south during last summer, when it was uncomfortably hot and people stayed inside where there's AC.
  - Izkata 6y ago
    This is what seasonality means. It doesn't mean "it'll be eliminated next season". They're referring more to, success can be claimed for lockdowns/etc whether or not they had an effect, simply by waiting until the natural seasonality causes a drop in cases.
    - mynameisvlad 6y ago
      I mean, they explicitly said > where natural seasonality will take care of COVID I don't read that as your interpretation at all. It very much sounds like they are saying the spring/summer season will kill COVID.
      - leereeves 6y ago
        There are several people in the conversation. Personally, I meant what Izkata said, and I don't think anything will completely kill COVID.

leereeves 6y ago

Take a look at this COVID daily trends graph from the CDC: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrends... From an average of about 50k cases reported daily in April through October to about 200k cases reported daily in November, December, and January, then back down to 60k by March. And there's a similar winter increase in the worldwide cases (some of which is from the US cases, but not all): https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/worldwide-graphs/#daily-cases https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/worldwide-graphs/#... It's impossible to be sure after just one year, but that hill in the winter certainly suggests a seasonal illness to me.

Tarsul 6y ago
yes, a certain seasonality is very probable. But with the variants we have right now (e.g. B1.1.7 from Kent), summer won't be enough to stem the tide. I'm saying this from a central european perspective (with not enough vaccinations either to help).
addicted 6y ago
Winter also corresponds with holiday seasons. Further, South American countries were some of the worst hit during the Nov - Feb timeline. South Africa was badly hit around this time. And all these are Southern Hemisphere countries that were experiencing summer around then. Now, there’s clear evidence that warmer weather makes things easier, since the virus has lower survivability outside a host in the heat, so all things equal, the spread would be lower in warmer weather, but it’s not so much lower that it can be considered seasonal, like the flu.
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cmrdporcupine 6y ago
It's not a surprise that an airborne virus spreads more during the time of year when people are spending more time indoors with their windows closed. Same reason it was rampant in the US subtropical south during last summer, when it was uncomfortably hot and people stayed inside where there's AC.
- Izkata 6y ago
  This is what seasonality means. It doesn't mean "it'll be eliminated next season". They're referring more to, success can be claimed for lockdowns/etc whether or not they had an effect, simply by waiting until the natural seasonality causes a drop in cases.
  - mynameisvlad 6y ago
    I mean, they explicitly said > where natural seasonality will take care of COVID I don't read that as your interpretation at all. It very much sounds like they are saying the spring/summer season will kill COVID.
    - leereeves 6y ago
      There are several people in the conversation. Personally, I meant what Izkata said, and I don't think anything will completely kill COVID.