This number is highly dependent on the case numbers of a country, so I wouldn't be too sure about it. My very rough calculation: There are ~ 200,000 vaccines a

This number is highly dependent on the case numbers of a country, so I wouldn't be too sure about it. My very rough calculation: There are ~ 200,000 vaccines administered daily in Germany, of which maybe 50% are AstraZeneca, so lets say we are delaying 100,000 vaccines / day - corresponding to 0.1% of the population vaccinated with Astra-Zeneca per day. Currently there are ~ 200 daily COVID-19 deaths in Germany, so in proportion one would expect ~ 0.2 additional deaths per day (~2 per week) due to the delay. Assuming people prioritised to get AstraZeneca are 10x as likely to die from COVID than the general population, this still leaves us with 20 deaths / week due to the delay. The big question is now how many people will die because they are infected by someone who could have gotten vaccinated sooner, but with a R of ~1, and less than 20 weeks until the whole population is vaccined, I doubt this will give two more orders of magnitude.