4 ms·

with ~300 deaths per day in germany, how many people will this kill?

greenpresident 6y ago
Casual estimates are at 1700/week. https://mobile.twitter.com/politicsforali/status/1371479008416821250 https://mobile.twitter.com/politicsforali/status/13714790084...
- mns 6y ago
  So you are saying that no one would die in Germany if the vaccine would not be temporarily suspended? That's a bit simplistic. Not to mention that we go so far as to consider that every life is precious and we need to fight for every single COVID patient, but the people that could be affected by this are just statistically insignificant.
  - hef19898 6y ago
    From the numbers I saw, the problems with AZ seem to affect only a very small portion of people. It kind of feels like people are only now reading the note that comes with a drug. And we are using these drugs on millions of people, so yeah even the one in a million complications will start to show. It sure seems that AZ is singled out on that so. And I really wonder why. Because it sure is getting into dangerous territory by now that we are artificialy limiting our vaccine availability.
  - FpUser 6y ago
    >"we go so far as to consider that every life is precious" We who? If you're talking about healthcare the chances of survival are constantly moderated by various policies ( both government and private ) against the money spent.
- yayr 6y ago
  this does not seem to be official the usual figure now is 5 Million vaccinations and 30 reported deaths from blood clotting. Which appears to be not much different from the number without vaccinations. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/oxford-astrazeneca-vaccine-delays-over-blood-clot-fears-raise-new-n1260945 https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/oxford-astrazeneca-vaccin...
  - greenpresident 6y ago
    The estimate I name is the number of additional people dying per week if we stop using AZ vaccines today.
  - tlogan 6y ago
    My understanding is that they were 30 blood clotting cases - not deaths. Am I correct?
- niklasbuschmann 6y ago
  This number is highly dependent on the case numbers of a country, so I wouldn't be too sure about it. My very rough calculation: There are ~ 200,000 vaccines administered daily in Germany, of which maybe 50% are AstraZeneca, so lets say we are delaying 100,000 vaccines / day - corresponding to 0.1% of the population vaccinated with Astra-Zeneca per day. Currently there are ~ 200 daily COVID-19 deaths in Germany, so in proportion one would expect ~ 0.2 additional deaths per day (~2 per week) due to the delay. Assuming people prioritised to get AstraZeneca are 10x as likely to die from COVID than the general population, this still leaves us with 20 deaths / week due to the delay. The big question is now how many people will die because they are infected by someone who could have gotten vaccinated sooner, but with a R of ~1, and less than 20 weeks until the whole population is vaccined, I doubt this will give two more orders of magnitude.
isolli 6y ago
Vaccine-related deaths are highly visible, daily covid deaths not so much...
- dcolkitt 6y ago
  This is just after like post 9/11, when a large percentage of travelers decided to drive instead of fly out of fear of plane hijackings. Even though you're orders of magnitude more likely to die in a car accident than an act of terrorism.
- WesolyKubeczek 6y ago
  They have been very visible a year ago (jeez, it's been a year already, what a time to live in), but people got mightily desensitized to this. 300 more deaths? Meh. In the other news, the sun continues to rise every morning. Until of course it's yourself, a family member, or a friend that joins the rank of those 300.
  - isolli 6y ago
    To be fair, people in Germany were quite worried when covid deaths were around 1000 per day. 300 deaths per day is on par with a bad flu season. The important question, of course, is: are deaths on the way up or down?
exyi 6y ago
Maybe many immediately. However, getting bad press for vaccines and the government not doing enough to prevent "unnecessary" death could decrease the voluntary vaccination rate significantly. That would bring much more problems in the long term. Of course, you can only guess what would happen, they want to play the safe game, medicine in general is not a friend with risk.

Casual estimates are at 1700/week. https://mobile.twitter.com/politicsforali/status/1371479008416821250 https://mobile.twitter.com/politicsforali/status/13714790084...

mns 6y ago
So you are saying that no one would die in Germany if the vaccine would not be temporarily suspended? That's a bit simplistic. Not to mention that we go so far as to consider that every life is precious and we need to fight for every single COVID patient, but the people that could be affected by this are just statistically insignificant.
- hef19898 6y ago
  From the numbers I saw, the problems with AZ seem to affect only a very small portion of people. It kind of feels like people are only now reading the note that comes with a drug. And we are using these drugs on millions of people, so yeah even the one in a million complications will start to show. It sure seems that AZ is singled out on that so. And I really wonder why. Because it sure is getting into dangerous territory by now that we are artificialy limiting our vaccine availability.
- FpUser 6y ago
  >"we go so far as to consider that every life is precious" We who? If you're talking about healthcare the chances of survival are constantly moderated by various policies ( both government and private ) against the money spent.
yayr 6y ago
this does not seem to be official the usual figure now is 5 Million vaccinations and 30 reported deaths from blood clotting. Which appears to be not much different from the number without vaccinations. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/oxford-astrazeneca-vaccine-delays-over-blood-clot-fears-raise-new-n1260945 https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/oxford-astrazeneca-vaccin...
- greenpresident 6y ago
  The estimate I name is the number of additional people dying per week if we stop using AZ vaccines today.
- tlogan 6y ago
  My understanding is that they were 30 blood clotting cases - not deaths. Am I correct?
niklasbuschmann 6y ago
This number is highly dependent on the case numbers of a country, so I wouldn't be too sure about it. My very rough calculation: There are ~ 200,000 vaccines administered daily in Germany, of which maybe 50% are AstraZeneca, so lets say we are delaying 100,000 vaccines / day - corresponding to 0.1% of the population vaccinated with Astra-Zeneca per day. Currently there are ~ 200 daily COVID-19 deaths in Germany, so in proportion one would expect ~ 0.2 additional deaths per day (~2 per week) due to the delay. Assuming people prioritised to get AstraZeneca are 10x as likely to die from COVID than the general population, this still leaves us with 20 deaths / week due to the delay. The big question is now how many people will die because they are infected by someone who could have gotten vaccinated sooner, but with a R of ~1, and less than 20 weeks until the whole population is vaccined, I doubt this will give two more orders of magnitude.

isolli 6y ago

Vaccine-related deaths are highly visible, daily covid deaths not so much...

dcolkitt 6y ago
This is just after like post 9/11, when a large percentage of travelers decided to drive instead of fly out of fear of plane hijackings. Even though you're orders of magnitude more likely to die in a car accident than an act of terrorism.
WesolyKubeczek 6y ago
They have been very visible a year ago (jeez, it's been a year already, what a time to live in), but people got mightily desensitized to this. 300 more deaths? Meh. In the other news, the sun continues to rise every morning. Until of course it's yourself, a family member, or a friend that joins the rank of those 300.
- isolli 6y ago
  To be fair, people in Germany were quite worried when covid deaths were around 1000 per day. 300 deaths per day is on par with a bad flu season. The important question, of course, is: are deaths on the way up or down?

exyi 6y ago

Maybe many immediately. However, getting bad press for vaccines and the government not doing enough to prevent "unnecessary" death could decrease the voluntary vaccination rate significantly. That would bring much more problems in the long term. Of course, you can only guess what would happen, they want to play the safe game, medicine in general is not a friend with risk.