4 ms·

This is all so fucked. BTC is at like $60k right now, and there are something like 18.4 billion BTC in circulation, which translates to over a trillion dollars

by bogwog 6y ago

This is all so fucked. BTC is at like $60k right now, and there are something like 18.4 billion BTC in circulation, which translates to over a trillion dollars in "value". Yet if any of these bitcoin (or ETH or whatever) billionaires tried to cash out their massive reserves, the bubble would burst. So stunts like this NFT thing, where a "humble artist" becomes a millionaire overnight, serves to just further inflate the bubble, and help those bitcoin billionaires become real billionaires without crashing the market. I wonder how many of these bitcoin billionaires are doing this (possibly colluding), or are actually so deluded that they believe $60k is the real intrinsic value of their BTC. Or maybe it's neither, and this bubble is still nowhere near the bursting point yet. Either way, it's all fucked and I hate it.

siwatanejo 6y ago
This reaction sounds very analogous to me to when someone complains about what two consenting same-sex adults do in their bedroom.
- SwimSwimHungry 6y ago
  Well... you're kinda wrong, because now many retirement accounts and such have indirect exposure to cryptocurrencies (MSTR and TSLA's silly Bitcoin buys come to mind, and I know TSLA is part of the S&P500), whether we like it or not. So we do have a dog in this fight, and we'd prefer not to be a part of any of these shenanigans. What two consenting adults do in the bedroom has zero affect on me. What a cabal of opportunists do with cryptocurrencies and then a possible epic black swan event could cause a domino effect that could even be considered catastrophic across the entire economy. Then a select few run off with their bags of real money while the rest of us take the hit. That's no good, if you ask me.
  - siwatanejo 6y ago
    > Then a select few run off with their bags of real money while the rest of us take the hit. What you seem to be describing here, precisely, sounds like the Cantillon effect (which wouldn't happen in a bitcoin-based economy, actually).
    - SwimSwimHungry 6y ago
      I realize the Cantillon Effect is more associated with fiat currencies, but I don't think that's what I was aiming for. Bitcoin itself is extremely volatile, and having that indirectly tied to the S&P index could cause problems when another massive crash occurs. After seeing the after math in 2013 and 2017, I'm really spooked about how Bitcoin is being somewhat interwoven into index funds, and this trend could potentially continue as more institutional money gets on the gravy train.
      - siwatanejo 6y ago
        > Bitcoin itself is extremely volatile, This is because you're still measuring bitcoin's value in terms of fiat unit of account. If goods & services were already priced in bitcoin (something that might happen at some point), then what you would think is volatile is fiat currency. Not to mention that there have been studies already that forecast bitcoin's volatility to be going down over time and it will reach parity with normal currencies soon (e.g. https://medium.com/@silvestrimichela.s/is-btc-volatility-going-down-66153fedbfed https://medium.com/@silvestrimichela.s/is-btc-volatility-goi... )
        SwimSwimHungry 6y ago
        Pricing goods directly in BTC, to me, is a very big "if" scenario. I think most governments would find a way to put the kibosh to this entire operation before Bitcoin became some kind of default currency in the global sense for everyone (not just for its supporters). Banning cryptocurrency itself would be very foolhardy (because how do you ban source code?), but what governments could do is prohibit exchanges from operating in their home countries, thus deterring any growth in mind-share amongst the peanut gallery, and even leading to a drop in the price per BTC. All they need to do is hamstring it for the vast majority of people. Diehards may continue to use BTC, but the allure would diminish greatly thereafter. And, say if you decide to go around traditional exchanges and use more underground methods to attain your home currency of choice, I'm sure the tax agency will get very suspicious about the massive windfall you got that you can't properly explain away. Climate change being what it is, I would be shocked if governments don't start cracking down on this sooner.
tommit 6y ago
I don't understand why this bothers you so much. If you think this is dumb don't invest, it's really as simple as. Sometimes it truly feels like people here are sour because they "missed the boat", and are now hoping for BTC to crash again so they can go "see? I said it was dumb". I don't want to accuse you of this, I just don't understand the problem otherwise. Also, it's 18 million BTC, not billion. You're right though that it's close to a trillion dollars market cap, so I assume that was just a typo.
- bogwog 6y ago
  If you see someone getting scammed on the street, like at a tourist trap, wouldn't you say something? Because this is the same situation, and why it bothers me. It's literally a scam. People are throwing their real dollars into the BTC market because they were sold on vague concepts and bullshit viral articles like in the OP. Maybe it's the investor's fault for being dumb and not doing their homework? Sure, so long as they weren't mislead, otherwise they're victims of a scam.
  - siwatanejo 6y ago
    > ...people are throwing their real dollars into the BTC market Real dollars? This seems to suggest that USD currency is "real" while BTC is "not real". Exactly how does this rationale work in your mind? Why is a USD more "real" to you than a bitcoin? The latter involved real work (energy) to create, while the former was just invented by a politician (by QE) or a bank (by fractional reserve). > ...otherwise they're victims of a scam. What if I told you that maybe by using fiat currency you have been scammed all along for your whole life? Mind you, I still agree with you that NFTs are a scam, but not bitcoin.

by bogwog 6y ago

siwatanejo 6y ago

This reaction sounds very analogous to me to when someone complains about what two consenting same-sex adults do in their bedroom.

SwimSwimHungry 6y ago
Well... you're kinda wrong, because now many retirement accounts and such have indirect exposure to cryptocurrencies (MSTR and TSLA's silly Bitcoin buys come to mind, and I know TSLA is part of the S&P500), whether we like it or not. So we do have a dog in this fight, and we'd prefer not to be a part of any of these shenanigans. What two consenting adults do in the bedroom has zero affect on me. What a cabal of opportunists do with cryptocurrencies and then a possible epic black swan event could cause a domino effect that could even be considered catastrophic across the entire economy. Then a select few run off with their bags of real money while the rest of us take the hit. That's no good, if you ask me.
- siwatanejo 6y ago
  > Then a select few run off with their bags of real money while the rest of us take the hit. What you seem to be describing here, precisely, sounds like the Cantillon effect (which wouldn't happen in a bitcoin-based economy, actually).
  - SwimSwimHungry 6y ago
    I realize the Cantillon Effect is more associated with fiat currencies, but I don't think that's what I was aiming for. Bitcoin itself is extremely volatile, and having that indirectly tied to the S&P index could cause problems when another massive crash occurs. After seeing the after math in 2013 and 2017, I'm really spooked about how Bitcoin is being somewhat interwoven into index funds, and this trend could potentially continue as more institutional money gets on the gravy train.
    - siwatanejo 6y ago
      > Bitcoin itself is extremely volatile, This is because you're still measuring bitcoin's value in terms of fiat unit of account. If goods & services were already priced in bitcoin (something that might happen at some point), then what you would think is volatile is fiat currency. Not to mention that there have been studies already that forecast bitcoin's volatility to be going down over time and it will reach parity with normal currencies soon (e.g. https://medium.com/@silvestrimichela.s/is-btc-volatility-going-down-66153fedbfed https://medium.com/@silvestrimichela.s/is-btc-volatility-goi... )
      - SwimSwimHungry 6y ago
        Pricing goods directly in BTC, to me, is a very big "if" scenario. I think most governments would find a way to put the kibosh to this entire operation before Bitcoin became some kind of default currency in the global sense for everyone (not just for its supporters). Banning cryptocurrency itself would be very foolhardy (because how do you ban source code?), but what governments could do is prohibit exchanges from operating in their home countries, thus deterring any growth in mind-share amongst the peanut gallery, and even leading to a drop in the price per BTC. All they need to do is hamstring it for the vast majority of people. Diehards may continue to use BTC, but the allure would diminish greatly thereafter. And, say if you decide to go around traditional exchanges and use more underground methods to attain your home currency of choice, I'm sure the tax agency will get very suspicious about the massive windfall you got that you can't properly explain away. Climate change being what it is, I would be shocked if governments don't start cracking down on this sooner.

tommit 6y ago

I don't understand why this bothers you so much. If you think this is dumb don't invest, it's really as simple as. Sometimes it truly feels like people here are sour because they "missed the boat", and are now hoping for BTC to crash again so they can go "see? I said it was dumb". I don't want to accuse you of this, I just don't understand the problem otherwise. Also, it's 18 million BTC, not billion. You're right though that it's close to a trillion dollars market cap, so I assume that was just a typo.

bogwog 6y ago
If you see someone getting scammed on the street, like at a tourist trap, wouldn't you say something? Because this is the same situation, and why it bothers me. It's literally a scam. People are throwing their real dollars into the BTC market because they were sold on vague concepts and bullshit viral articles like in the OP. Maybe it's the investor's fault for being dumb and not doing their homework? Sure, so long as they weren't mislead, otherwise they're victims of a scam.
- siwatanejo 6y ago
  > ...people are throwing their real dollars into the BTC market Real dollars? This seems to suggest that USD currency is "real" while BTC is "not real". Exactly how does this rationale work in your mind? Why is a USD more "real" to you than a bitcoin? The latter involved real work (energy) to create, while the former was just invented by a politician (by QE) or a bank (by fractional reserve). > ...otherwise they're victims of a scam. What if I told you that maybe by using fiat currency you have been scammed all along for your whole life? Mind you, I still agree with you that NFTs are a scam, but not bitcoin.