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What does demographic collapse mean, specifically? The one child policy is 40 years old, China has been 4-2-1 for like 20 years at least, and no collapse has h
by refenestrator 6y ago
What does demographic collapse mean, specifically?
The one child policy is 40 years old, China has been 4-2-1 for like 20 years at least, and no collapse has happened. Now they're allowing 2 children.
What's the specific thing that will collapse and be bad? An oversized retiree generation dying just frees up pension cash.
- dnautics 6y agoThe specific thing that will collapse is the economy. When people retire there is a sudden shift from investment to liquidation. That's a driving factor for popping asset bubbles, and china is currently one huge asset bubble. Like it or not (i personally dont), we are also living in a world where the central planners rely on consumption-driven economics, and there just isn't a chinese consumer market anymore due to demographics.
- refenestrator 6y agoThe multi-child family people are already retired, though, and long-retired at that. Them dying out means a shrinking population but also lower pension costs with no lost labor. The working population has been steady-state at 1-child for 40 years followed by 2-child for the last few years. I suppose there could be some demand loss due to fewer people demanding things, but.. there's a lot of room for additional demand in China. Plenty of people where running water is a last-20-years nice new thing.