5 ms·

War games suggest the US will lose fast if it confronts China

17 points by ripvanwinkle 6y ago

S_A_P 6y ago
Unless I missed it in the article what exactly is the simulated attack? Are they flying real planes over US targets? Wouldn’t that in and of itself be considered an act of aggression?
- phpnode 6y ago
  The US Air Force ran a war game. While the war game was in progress the Chinese Military ran a war game of their own, simulating a series of attacks on Taiwan. The timing appears to be unrelated, I suppose the article mentions them to draw attention to the escalating tensions in the area.
  - bamurphymac1 6y ago
    Huh. Makes me think about two adversaries agreeing to run a simulated conflict in order to correct any of the opponents misconceptions that could lead to accidental escalation.
- Ericson2314 6y ago
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_simulation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_simulation It's something they've been doing for a long term. No idea if it's accurate and it probably isn't very, but not sure what else they should be doing.
- potiuper 6y ago
  "Then in September in the midst of the war game, actual Chinese combat aircraft intentionally flew over the rarely crossed median line in the Taiwan Strait in the direction of Taipei an unprecedented 40 times and conducted simulated attacks on the island that Taiwan’s premier called “disturbing.” Amid those provocations, China’s air force released a video showing a bomber capable of carrying nuclear weapons carrying out a simulated attack on Andersen Air Force Base on the U.S. Pacific island of Guam. The title of the Hollywood-like propaganda video was “The god of war H-6K [bomber] goes on the attack!” In case the new U.S. administration failed to get the intended message behind all that provocative military activity, four days after President Biden took office, a large force of Chinese bombers and fighters flew past Taiwan and launched simulated missile attacks on the USS Roosevelt carrier strike group as it was sailing in international waters in the South China Sea." Countries do acts of aggression all the time. Last June 20 Indian troops were killed in Himalayas clash with Chinese army. The political question is when it is enough to declare war.
didibus 6y ago
Can link be changed to the referenced source which has much more information: https://news.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/were-going-to-lose-fast-us-air-force-held-a-war-game-that-started-with-a-chinese-biological-attack-170003936.html?__twitter_impression=true https://news.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/were-going-to-lose-fast-...
- Judgmentality 6y ago
  I second this. The current article linked on HN has very little information, and this one provided by didibus is much better.
- throw0101a 6y ago
  Can we not use AMP? * https://news.yahoo.com/news/were-going-to-lose-fast-us-air-force-held-a-war-game-that-started-with-a-chinese-biological-attack-170003936.html https://news.yahoo.com/news/were-going-to-lose-fast-us-air-f...
dmos62 6y ago
Is this written by GPT-3? The text is incongruent.
- kyriakos 6y ago
  Trt is not exactly bbc
rwmj 6y ago
> "The future confrontation would continue for more than a decade"? [Edit: I should say this sentence is in the originally posted article, not the longer one from Yahoo] Pretty sure one or both sides would launch nuclear weapons long before then, resulting in a swift (albeit very unhappy) end to the war.
- ethanbond 6y ago
  Why do you think MAD doesn’t work now?
  - rwmj 6y ago
    > Why do you think MAD doesn’t work now? I don't understand your question.
    - kyriakos 6y ago
      Point is that they wouldn't use nuclear because of mutually assured destruction
      - rwmj 6y ago
        A decade long war between China and the US (as the article describes) would soon be a total war, which means using every weapon at your disposal.
        AnimalMuppet 6y ago
        Both sides had chemical weapons in World War II; neither side used them. Yet WWII was a total war. That is, MAD or something MAD-like can restrain use of particular weapons, even in a total war.
        Rebles 6y ago
        Most conventional strategists believe a nuclear war wouldn't need to last a decade, as both parties would destroy themselves. Given the heavy civilian casualties and the decimation on the economies and infrastructure, the cost of a nuclear war and mutually assured destruction (MAD) outweigh the potential benefits.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
throwaway53453 6y ago
China is engaging in fifth generational warfare (information, hacking, economics) against the US. How can you win a war if you don't even know it's happening?
- cbozeman 6y ago
  Once again, blame can be heaped upon the goddamned Boomers. Their incessant desire to keep running shit, to constantly keep their standard of living not only the same, but *increasing* during their old age - has been the catalyst for this problem. The offshoring to China of manufacturing and electronics assembly has given China an enormous economic advantage. At least the "Greatest Generation" had the good grace to retire and die instead of trying to suck everything dry like some kind of economic vampire. And just like vampires of lore, the Boomers destroy everything with which they come into contact. 500 years from now, historians are going to marvel at this generation that crippled multiple generations after it due their avarice and entitlement.
  - Judgmentality 6y ago
    > Once again, blame can be heaped upon the goddamned Boomers. As someone who actually believes there is a lot of merit to this stance, you do almost nothing to persuade anyone of its truth. You're making a bold claim with very little evidence. I don't know how much boomers are to blame for certain problems today, but I don't believe it's all of them like your comment implies. I genuinely would enjoy hearing more evidence to support your claim if you have any to share. So far you've only used deductive reasoning based on principles, which is essentially worthless when talking about something as complicated as the world economy and military might over a timespan of decades.
    - lapaz17 6y ago
      You think thar offshoring is done by millenials?
  - xiphias2 6y ago
    I have seen young people from US in my travels who were just as entitled as the old people from there. At the same time US is still a great place, people just have to accept that life is not as easy as they thought there.
yongjik 6y ago
My half-cynical take: The US Air Force successfully conducted a PR exercise designed to argue why it needs more budget.
offtop5 6y ago
The war mongering here is so silly. Let China reassert itself as the dominant power in Asia. That's none of our concern.
- Rebles 6y ago
  I think America's concerns are 4 fold: * There is political and economic benefits to projecting American power in Asia and the Pacific and protecting American hegemony. * China has had recent border clashes with many of its neighbors, including India, and the Philippines. * China continues to build its man-made islands despite it being deemed illegal, an violating its neighbor's sovereignty and international law. * Not to mention the numerous human rights violations China commits against its minority citizens and the people of Tibet. Now, imagine an unchallenged China, potentially subjugating its neighbors by force, including India, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and the Philippines. Other regional powers, such as Australia, have taken notice of Chinese ambitions and are taking steps to protect themselves. Arguable, a threatening China is an opportunity for America to strength ties and increase its power in the region.
  - offtop5 6y ago
    >Not to mention the numerous human rights violations China commits against its minority citizens and the people of Tibet. https://www.insider.com/inside-forced-sterilizations-california-womens-prisons-documentary-2020-11 https://www.insider.com/inside-forced-sterilizations-califor... https://www.npr.org/2020/09/18/914465793/ice-a-whistleblower-and-forced-sterilization https://www.npr.org/2020/09/18/914465793/ice-a-whistleblower... We don't really have the moral high ground here. After we stop violating the human rights of minority groups here we can judge the rest of the world. >Now, imagine an unchallenged China, potentially subjugating its neighbors by force, including India, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and the Philippines. Why do we treat America like some special case. You don't think our military bases which cover the entire world are subjecting anyone ? Maybe instead of asserting dominance on each corner of the globe we could address homelessness and child poverty ?
- alkonaut 6y ago
  Throwing Taiwan under the bus is hardly the answer either. There needs to be some clarity from the international community about what happens to China if, for example, Taiwan isn’t sovereign. Sanctions and seized Chinese assets abroad would be a good start. Banning western universities from accepting tuition money from Chinese citizens would also very effectively turn a powerful demographic against the leadership.
smitty1e 6y ago
The Clausewitzian Trinity[1] ain't lying. The military, societal, and elected leadership isn't united, (stipulating competence). What is more astounding is that we could be surrounded by foes devouring us, and our media would assure us that everything is just hugs and cupcakes. [1] https://www.clausewitz.com/readings/Bassford/Trinity/TrinityTeachingNote.htm https://www.clausewitz.com/readings/Bassford/Trinity/Trinity...

17 points by ripvanwinkle 6y ago

Unless I missed it in the article what exactly is the simulated attack? Are they flying real planes over US targets? Wouldn’t that in and of itself be considered an act of aggression?

phpnode 6y ago
The US Air Force ran a war game. While the war game was in progress the Chinese Military ran a war game of their own, simulating a series of attacks on Taiwan. The timing appears to be unrelated, I suppose the article mentions them to draw attention to the escalating tensions in the area.
- bamurphymac1 6y ago
  Huh. Makes me think about two adversaries agreeing to run a simulated conflict in order to correct any of the opponents misconceptions that could lead to accidental escalation.
Ericson2314 6y ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_simulation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_simulation It's something they've been doing for a long term. No idea if it's accurate and it probably isn't very, but not sure what else they should be doing.
potiuper 6y ago
"Then in September in the midst of the war game, actual Chinese combat aircraft intentionally flew over the rarely crossed median line in the Taiwan Strait in the direction of Taipei an unprecedented 40 times and conducted simulated attacks on the island that Taiwan’s premier called “disturbing.” Amid those provocations, China’s air force released a video showing a bomber capable of carrying nuclear weapons carrying out a simulated attack on Andersen Air Force Base on the U.S. Pacific island of Guam. The title of the Hollywood-like propaganda video was “The god of war H-6K [bomber] goes on the attack!” In case the new U.S. administration failed to get the intended message behind all that provocative military activity, four days after President Biden took office, a large force of Chinese bombers and fighters flew past Taiwan and launched simulated missile attacks on the USS Roosevelt carrier strike group as it was sailing in international waters in the South China Sea." Countries do acts of aggression all the time. Last June 20 Indian troops were killed in Himalayas clash with Chinese army. The political question is when it is enough to declare war.

didibus 6y ago

Can link be changed to the referenced source which has much more information: https://news.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/were-going-to-lose-fast-us-air-force-held-a-war-game-that-started-with-a-chinese-biological-attack-170003936.html?__twitter_impression=true https://news.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/were-going-to-lose-fast-...

Judgmentality 6y ago
I second this. The current article linked on HN has very little information, and this one provided by didibus is much better.
throw0101a 6y ago
Can we not use AMP? * https://news.yahoo.com/news/were-going-to-lose-fast-us-air-force-held-a-war-game-that-started-with-a-chinese-biological-attack-170003936.html https://news.yahoo.com/news/were-going-to-lose-fast-us-air-f...

dmos62 6y ago

Is this written by GPT-3? The text is incongruent.

kyriakos 6y ago
Trt is not exactly bbc

rwmj 6y ago

> "The future confrontation would continue for more than a decade"? [Edit: I should say this sentence is in the originally posted article, not the longer one from Yahoo] Pretty sure one or both sides would launch nuclear weapons long before then, resulting in a swift (albeit very unhappy) end to the war.

ethanbond 6y ago
Why do you think MAD doesn’t work now?
- rwmj 6y ago
  > Why do you think MAD doesn’t work now? I don't understand your question.
  - kyriakos 6y ago
    Point is that they wouldn't use nuclear because of mutually assured destruction
    - rwmj 6y ago
      A decade long war between China and the US (as the article describes) would soon be a total war, which means using every weapon at your disposal.
      - AnimalMuppet 6y ago
        Both sides had chemical weapons in World War II; neither side used them. Yet WWII was a total war. That is, MAD or something MAD-like can restrain use of particular weapons, even in a total war.
      - Rebles 6y ago
        Most conventional strategists believe a nuclear war wouldn't need to last a decade, as both parties would destroy themselves. Given the heavy civilian casualties and the decimation on the economies and infrastructure, the cost of a nuclear war and mutually assured destruction (MAD) outweigh the potential benefits.

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

throwaway53453 6y ago

China is engaging in fifth generational warfare (information, hacking, economics) against the US. How can you win a war if you don't even know it's happening?

cbozeman 6y ago
Once again, blame can be heaped upon the goddamned Boomers. Their incessant desire to keep running shit, to constantly keep their standard of living not only the same, but *increasing* during their old age - has been the catalyst for this problem. The offshoring to China of manufacturing and electronics assembly has given China an enormous economic advantage. At least the "Greatest Generation" had the good grace to retire and die instead of trying to suck everything dry like some kind of economic vampire. And just like vampires of lore, the Boomers destroy everything with which they come into contact. 500 years from now, historians are going to marvel at this generation that crippled multiple generations after it due their avarice and entitlement.
- Judgmentality 6y ago
  > Once again, blame can be heaped upon the goddamned Boomers. As someone who actually believes there is a lot of merit to this stance, you do almost nothing to persuade anyone of its truth. You're making a bold claim with very little evidence. I don't know how much boomers are to blame for certain problems today, but I don't believe it's all of them like your comment implies. I genuinely would enjoy hearing more evidence to support your claim if you have any to share. So far you've only used deductive reasoning based on principles, which is essentially worthless when talking about something as complicated as the world economy and military might over a timespan of decades.
  - lapaz17 6y ago
    You think thar offshoring is done by millenials?
- xiphias2 6y ago
  I have seen young people from US in my travels who were just as entitled as the old people from there. At the same time US is still a great place, people just have to accept that life is not as easy as they thought there.

yongjik 6y ago

My half-cynical take: The US Air Force successfully conducted a PR exercise designed to argue why it needs more budget.

offtop5 6y ago

The war mongering here is so silly. Let China reassert itself as the dominant power in Asia. That's none of our concern.

Rebles 6y ago
I think America's concerns are 4 fold: * There is political and economic benefits to projecting American power in Asia and the Pacific and protecting American hegemony. * China has had recent border clashes with many of its neighbors, including India, and the Philippines. * China continues to build its man-made islands despite it being deemed illegal, an violating its neighbor's sovereignty and international law. * Not to mention the numerous human rights violations China commits against its minority citizens and the people of Tibet. Now, imagine an unchallenged China, potentially subjugating its neighbors by force, including India, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and the Philippines. Other regional powers, such as Australia, have taken notice of Chinese ambitions and are taking steps to protect themselves. Arguable, a threatening China is an opportunity for America to strength ties and increase its power in the region.
- offtop5 6y ago
  >Not to mention the numerous human rights violations China commits against its minority citizens and the people of Tibet. https://www.insider.com/inside-forced-sterilizations-california-womens-prisons-documentary-2020-11 https://www.insider.com/inside-forced-sterilizations-califor... https://www.npr.org/2020/09/18/914465793/ice-a-whistleblower-and-forced-sterilization https://www.npr.org/2020/09/18/914465793/ice-a-whistleblower... We don't really have the moral high ground here. After we stop violating the human rights of minority groups here we can judge the rest of the world. >Now, imagine an unchallenged China, potentially subjugating its neighbors by force, including India, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and the Philippines. Why do we treat America like some special case. You don't think our military bases which cover the entire world are subjecting anyone ? Maybe instead of asserting dominance on each corner of the globe we could address homelessness and child poverty ?
alkonaut 6y ago
Throwing Taiwan under the bus is hardly the answer either. There needs to be some clarity from the international community about what happens to China if, for example, Taiwan isn’t sovereign. Sanctions and seized Chinese assets abroad would be a good start. Banning western universities from accepting tuition money from Chinese citizens would also very effectively turn a powerful demographic against the leadership.

smitty1e 6y ago

The Clausewitzian Trinity[1] ain't lying. The military, societal, and elected leadership isn't united, (stipulating competence). What is more astounding is that we could be surrounded by foes devouring us, and our media would assure us that everything is just hugs and cupcakes. [1] https://www.clausewitz.com/readings/Bassford/Trinity/TrinityTeachingNote.htm https://www.clausewitz.com/readings/Bassford/Trinity/Trinity...