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I have come to the conclusion that a rational, scientifically sound analysis of things like mask-wearing, social distancing, stay-at-home, closing schools, WFH,

I have come to the conclusion that a rational, scientifically sound analysis of things like mask-wearing, social distancing, stay-at-home, closing schools, WFH, etc. is all going to have to occur a few years from now, when tempers have cooled. The initial analysis of any complex system is virtually certain to be riddled with errors, even when it is something like the growth patterns of crab claws in the southern hemisphere, about which few people have strong emotions. Little has been demonstrated to my satisfaction so far in this pandemic, except for these two things: 1) the vaccines appear to work (whew) 2) we aren't really able, as a society, to think clearly about a pandemic while it's happening

smitty1e 6y ago
> a few years from now, when tempers have cooled. The initial analysis of any complex system is virtually certain to be riddled with errors Society does not seem to be on a good course at the moment. The new Authoritarian chic may delay rational dialogue by several centuries until the Dark Age has passed.
hellbannedguy 6y ago
My hope is that social distancing continues—not at concerts, etc., but places we are forced to go, like grocery stores, etc. I’ve even gotten used to the mask, but feel that will be a welcomed good riddance by most. I had one cold this winter, rather than counting on get sick 4-5 times. I do have a self-centered concern on opening up though. My life was lousy before the epidemic. I didn’t see a great economy. I saw a lot of really lousy jobs, and a lot of desperate competition. I noticed some societal pressure to produce/succeed lighten up during the pandemic, at least for myself. In a weird way, it was kind of a positive. With each day they are counting to opening up, I noticed my sleep, and depression worsen.
- godfreyantonell 6y ago
  where do you live?
- sokoloff 6y ago
  I hope that social distancing entirely disappears, leaving us only with an increased acceptance of working from home and a dramatic increase in the unacceptability of going to the office when sick. In the future, I don’t want to act as if all my fellow humans might have cooties, as I think that’s more damaging than the slight increase in viral infections.
Animats 6y ago
The most disappointing part of this is the lack of some basic numbers. Like "how many people have antibodies to the coronavirus". The US CDC has ongoing coronavirus seroprevalence studies, but the main one runs two months behind.[1] As of mid-January, 18% of the US population showed coronavirus antibodies. This is measured from random blood samples taken from medical tests used for other purposes, so it's anonymous and the samples are from people less healthy than average. There's also a survey based on blood samples from blood donors, who are more healthy than average. Those should provide a high and low bound. Anyway, watch those numbers. They show measured "herd immunity". They're not a projection from some other data. [1] https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/seroprevalence-types.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/seropre...

smitty1e 6y ago

> a few years from now, when tempers have cooled. The initial analysis of any complex system is virtually certain to be riddled with errors Society does not seem to be on a good course at the moment. The new Authoritarian chic may delay rational dialogue by several centuries until the Dark Age has passed.

hellbannedguy 6y ago

My hope is that social distancing continues—not at concerts, etc., but places we are forced to go, like grocery stores, etc. I’ve even gotten used to the mask, but feel that will be a welcomed good riddance by most. I had one cold this winter, rather than counting on get sick 4-5 times. I do have a self-centered concern on opening up though. My life was lousy before the epidemic. I didn’t see a great economy. I saw a lot of really lousy jobs, and a lot of desperate competition. I noticed some societal pressure to produce/succeed lighten up during the pandemic, at least for myself. In a weird way, it was kind of a positive. With each day they are counting to opening up, I noticed my sleep, and depression worsen.

godfreyantonell 6y ago
where do you live?
sokoloff 6y ago
I hope that social distancing entirely disappears, leaving us only with an increased acceptance of working from home and a dramatic increase in the unacceptability of going to the office when sick. In the future, I don’t want to act as if all my fellow humans might have cooties, as I think that’s more damaging than the slight increase in viral infections.

Animats 6y ago

The most disappointing part of this is the lack of some basic numbers. Like "how many people have antibodies to the coronavirus". The US CDC has ongoing coronavirus seroprevalence studies, but the main one runs two months behind.[1] As of mid-January, 18% of the US population showed coronavirus antibodies. This is measured from random blood samples taken from medical tests used for other purposes, so it's anonymous and the samples are from people less healthy than average. There's also a survey based on blood samples from blood donors, who are more healthy than average. Those should provide a high and low bound. Anyway, watch those numbers. They show measured "herd immunity". They're not a projection from some other data. [1] https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/seroprevalence-types.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/seropre...