4 ms·

HK vs the CCP isn't a great case study, because the center of power is outside of the country and it isn't mixed in with the disgruntled people. A better count

HK vs the CCP isn't a great case study, because the center of power is outside of the country and it isn't mixed in with the disgruntled people. A better counterfactual case study would be North Korea, Nazi Germany, Soviet Russia or present-day Myanmar; where the regime largely lives amongst (albeit in a stratified/segregated way) and selects from the populace that it controls. I'd be especially interested in the early days of the regime, before its power is fully solidified and when it's the most unstable.

gostsamo 6y ago
Soviet Russia was in a civil war for six years and the history there is complex because initially it was supposed to be the democratic revolution. Nazi Germany was like present day Russia - formerly authoritarian state that lost a big conflict, had democratic transition which was shaken by a series of economic crises. A large part of the population considered the strong leadership and revanchism for embodiment of the national essence. The economic elite welcomed the predictability of a well-oiled corrupt regime. History of North Korea is not my strong side, but the North had huge chinese and soviet backing during the war while the South part was a military dictatorship until the nineties. Myanmar military is maybe the most interesting of all these cases because this is not a regime with an ideology. Its backing is purely economic by Japan and China who have financial interests in the country, and the army officers internally, who can profiteer from an army-owned economy. For sure, there is some jingoism used by the army's propaganda; however, I don't follow the conflict and narratives there to assess properly what's going on there. However, as far as China is ready to sell the regime weapons and the regime has access to enough money to by them, the protests are doomed. Having access to power is existential for those guys and they won't let it go. Best scenario is if Japan and maybe China broker some deal "amnesty for democracy", but I doubt that they have the motivation to do so.

gostsamo 6y ago

Soviet Russia was in a civil war for six years and the history there is complex because initially it was supposed to be the democratic revolution. Nazi Germany was like present day Russia - formerly authoritarian state that lost a big conflict, had democratic transition which was shaken by a series of economic crises. A large part of the population considered the strong leadership and revanchism for embodiment of the national essence. The economic elite welcomed the predictability of a well-oiled corrupt regime. History of North Korea is not my strong side, but the North had huge chinese and soviet backing during the war while the South part was a military dictatorship until the nineties. Myanmar military is maybe the most interesting of all these cases because this is not a regime with an ideology. Its backing is purely economic by Japan and China who have financial interests in the country, and the army officers internally, who can profiteer from an army-owned economy. For sure, there is some jingoism used by the army's propaganda; however, I don't follow the conflict and narratives there to assess properly what's going on there. However, as far as China is ready to sell the regime weapons and the regime has access to enough money to by them, the protests are doomed. Having access to power is existential for those guys and they won't let it go. Best scenario is if Japan and maybe China broker some deal "amnesty for democracy", but I doubt that they have the motivation to do so.