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> There's good evidence from contact-tracing that some of the subsequent outbreaks originated in people who work in the cold chain. Well, that's technically tr

by makomk 6y ago

> There's good evidence from contact-tracing that some of the subsequent outbreaks originated in people who work in the cold chain. Well, that's technically true. It just probably didn't come from the goods being handled like China claimed. In particular, formites and surface contamination of any kind don't seem to be a major source of transmission, and the Beijing outbreak they originally used this to explain seems to actually trace back to infected truckers travelling from somewhere in China with a previously-undetected outbreak that wasn't noticed before because locations outside Beijing didn't have the same level of testing. That is, they found it within their cold chain because that was where they were looking. This is also a lot more consistent with what we know about how Covid is transmitted.

DiogenesKynikos 6y ago
> formites and surface contamination of any kind don't seem to be a major source of transmission When there are millions of infected people walking around breathing and coughing, then fomite transmission is not a major source of transmission. But it is a source of transmission, and it could become the dominant source of new introductions of the virus into the country if quarantine of travelers is good enough (to go to China, you generally have to get a negative PCR test before your flight, then quarantine for two weeks in a special hotel on arrival, and finally get another negative PCR test). That's not to say that cold chain was actually the source of the Beijing or the Qingdao outbreaks, but there's evidence that points in that direction. In other words, this isn't simply propaganda. But the larger issue that we were originally discussing is the overall situation in China. There clearly has not been significant community transmission over the past year, showing that the strategy (sharp lockdowns followed by strict border quarantines and mass testing during localized outbreaks) has been effective.

by makomk 6y ago

DiogenesKynikos 6y ago

> formites and surface contamination of any kind don't seem to be a major source of transmission When there are millions of infected people walking around breathing and coughing, then fomite transmission is not a major source of transmission. But it is a source of transmission, and it could become the dominant source of new introductions of the virus into the country if quarantine of travelers is good enough (to go to China, you generally have to get a negative PCR test before your flight, then quarantine for two weeks in a special hotel on arrival, and finally get another negative PCR test). That's not to say that cold chain was actually the source of the Beijing or the Qingdao outbreaks, but there's evidence that points in that direction. In other words, this isn't simply propaganda. But the larger issue that we were originally discussing is the overall situation in China. There clearly has not been significant community transmission over the past year, showing that the strategy (sharp lockdowns followed by strict border quarantines and mass testing during localized outbreaks) has been effective.