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It's proven that speed limits save lives by 100% of scientists. There's absolutely no proof that quarantine or any of these Covid restrictions was effective.

It's proven that speed limits save lives by 100% of scientists. There's absolutely no proof that quarantine or any of these Covid restrictions was effective. There's a study that masks might prevent spread by around 2%. That doesn't seem enough to enforce massive restrictions to me. Sweden and had less deaths per capita then most of Europe and they had minimal restrictions. Also the scale of the restrictions is different than speed limits. Quarantine and business shutdowns are massive changes to society and repressive restrictions on financial survival and affect just about every aspect of our lives versus just some targeted change like a speed limit. What if a vaccine had never been developed? Would you be okay enforcing these restrictions forever?

DiogenesKynikos 6y ago
There's also no randomized trial proving that parachutes prevent death during skydiving. But it stands to reason that not slamming into the ground at terminal velocity is good for your health, and it stands to reason that preventing the spread of a deadly disease saves lives. Countries that have prevented the spread of the disease (China, Vietnam, Thailand, Australia, New Zealand, and others) have orders of magnitude fewer deaths, as a proportion of their population.
- nickthemagicman 6y ago
  The principles underlying gravity are well understood. Covid and everything about it is not.
  - DiogenesKynikos 6y ago
    The germ theory of disease is also well established. For SARS-CoV-2, while there are still some uncertainties about precisely how important different modes of transmission are, it's clear that it's a respiratory disease. Quarantine works to stop transmission. Lockdowns like the one in Wuhan or those in Australia work, because they stop infected people from coming into close proximity with susceptible people. This much is understood, despite whatever other uncertainties there are.
    - nickthemagicman 6y ago
      You're really getting your level of abstractions wrong. We understand cellular theory but we don't understand cancer. We understand how computers and math work but we haven't figured out P vs NP. Just because you understand some higher level of abstraction doesn't mean you understand lower levels. Every 'germ' is radically different. Understanding the germ theory of disease doesn't mean anything other than we understand germs at that level of abstraction. Another example is by also comparing speed limits to entire society wide shutdowns. The real pandemic is how poorly educated our society is about science, statistics, level of abstractions, and critical thinking. And the news media preys on the idiots.
      - DiogenesKynikos 6y ago
        The fact that quarantine works is a very direct consequence of the germ theory of disease. You don't have to understand every detail about the virus to know that keeping infected people away from uninfected people halts its spread. Quarantine measures have been incredibly effective in countries that have implemented them seriously. China, Australia, New Zealand, Vietnam and other countries have essentially eliminated the virus within their borders. Quarantine is low-tech but effective.
        Rule35 6y ago
        Part of the problem is that quarantine means different things to different people and places. North American and European quarantine seems to have been almost entirely ineffective. Too loose to help and too invasive to not hurt. It's hard to prove anything, especially because my government's policy is specifically not to tell us where people are infected, city, store, or class of activity, nor infections by capita, etc. Here they ban playing tennis on outdoor tennis courts (but not other exercise usage of the court, such as weight lifting and dancercize - both of which I've seen there during Covid) while allowing people to sit near each other at the bar and drink. There's a chance that tennis balls are that much more infectious, but it seems likely that political issues got in the way of proper medical advice... Also, leaving supermarkets open as opposed to totally roadside pickup probably wasted most of the effect of closing everything else. And failing to properly compensate small businesses led to many breaking the rules and going back early just to be able to eat. So I think people in some places do have a good excuse to be mad about the manipulation. If my government locks me down I want to know that they really think it'll fix something and when I look at other governments versus my own, I don't get that feeling.

DiogenesKynikos 6y ago

There's also no randomized trial proving that parachutes prevent death during skydiving. But it stands to reason that not slamming into the ground at terminal velocity is good for your health, and it stands to reason that preventing the spread of a deadly disease saves lives. Countries that have prevented the spread of the disease (China, Vietnam, Thailand, Australia, New Zealand, and others) have orders of magnitude fewer deaths, as a proportion of their population.

nickthemagicman 6y ago
The principles underlying gravity are well understood. Covid and everything about it is not.
- DiogenesKynikos 6y ago
  The germ theory of disease is also well established. For SARS-CoV-2, while there are still some uncertainties about precisely how important different modes of transmission are, it's clear that it's a respiratory disease. Quarantine works to stop transmission. Lockdowns like the one in Wuhan or those in Australia work, because they stop infected people from coming into close proximity with susceptible people. This much is understood, despite whatever other uncertainties there are.
  - nickthemagicman 6y ago
    You're really getting your level of abstractions wrong. We understand cellular theory but we don't understand cancer. We understand how computers and math work but we haven't figured out P vs NP. Just because you understand some higher level of abstraction doesn't mean you understand lower levels. Every 'germ' is radically different. Understanding the germ theory of disease doesn't mean anything other than we understand germs at that level of abstraction. Another example is by also comparing speed limits to entire society wide shutdowns. The real pandemic is how poorly educated our society is about science, statistics, level of abstractions, and critical thinking. And the news media preys on the idiots.
    - DiogenesKynikos 6y ago
      The fact that quarantine works is a very direct consequence of the germ theory of disease. You don't have to understand every detail about the virus to know that keeping infected people away from uninfected people halts its spread. Quarantine measures have been incredibly effective in countries that have implemented them seriously. China, Australia, New Zealand, Vietnam and other countries have essentially eliminated the virus within their borders. Quarantine is low-tech but effective.
      - Rule35 6y ago
        Part of the problem is that quarantine means different things to different people and places. North American and European quarantine seems to have been almost entirely ineffective. Too loose to help and too invasive to not hurt. It's hard to prove anything, especially because my government's policy is specifically not to tell us where people are infected, city, store, or class of activity, nor infections by capita, etc. Here they ban playing tennis on outdoor tennis courts (but not other exercise usage of the court, such as weight lifting and dancercize - both of which I've seen there during Covid) while allowing people to sit near each other at the bar and drink. There's a chance that tennis balls are that much more infectious, but it seems likely that political issues got in the way of proper medical advice... Also, leaving supermarkets open as opposed to totally roadside pickup probably wasted most of the effect of closing everything else. And failing to properly compensate small businesses led to many breaking the rules and going back early just to be able to eat. So I think people in some places do have a good excuse to be mad about the manipulation. If my government locks me down I want to know that they really think it'll fix something and when I look at other governments versus my own, I don't get that feeling.