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I believe that, like New Zealand, we are just postponing the inevitable New Zealand (and Australia) don't have cases, because every single traveler who enters

by ern 6y ago

I believe that, like New Zealand, we are just postponing the inevitable New Zealand (and Australia) don't have cases, because every single traveler who enters those island nations is kept in hotel quarantine, and tested multiple times before being released only after the quarantine period ends. It isn't the same as testing people when they come in and letting them straight into the community if they test negative. That said, with vaccines now being rolled out, it may well be that these countries managed to dodge the bullet. It's hard to see what was "inevitable" about Covid, except the dogma (still promoted by the WHO, when I last checked) that travel bans are bad.

saiya-jin 6y ago
This is enforceable in remote island countries, but in ie Europe its not. You can't 100% lock the borders, there would be shortages of basically everything, from food to materials used in all industries. Europe is not so unified as US for example, there is a lot of independence, for better or worse. Food is transported on trucks, till it reaches from Spain say Poland it crosses minimum of 4-5 countries, each with their own covid situation, laws, rules, bans etc. If we knew back a year ago how bad things would get and are still getting, I believe such a lockdown for say a month could pass, otherwise not and there isn't a central authority that could enforce it. And saying it was to be expected doesn't make much sense, spread of predicted outcomes was basically between yet another flu to another spanish flu.
makomk 6y ago
New Zealand and Australia have had cases outside of quarantine despite every single traveller who enters those island nations being kept in hotel quarantine, tested multiple times, and being released only after the quarantine period ends. Some of those cases are directly traceable to quarantined travellers, some aren't. In any case, even those measures which aren't practical except in an island nation aren't effective enough to prevent outbreaks when implemented on a larger scale; the bigger the country the more opportunities for one of those cases to turn into something that's not easily controlled.
- DiogenesKynikos 6y ago
  China successfully followed the same strategy, so the strategy certainly can work for large, non-island countries. China had a few outbreaks (after Wuhan, obviously), but it responded to each one with quick restrictions on the affected location and mass testing of everyone in the region. That worked to contain these subsequent outbreaks. As a result, China has been essentially CoVID-19-free for about a year now.
  - makomk 6y ago
    It's hard to tell what on earth is going on in China because a lot of the information coming out of there seems... dubious. As you say, they've had a few outbreaks which they responded to with large-scale lockdowns and mass testing, but if you believe their reporting the mass testing generally didn't find any cases at all which (if accurate) would mean the whole thing was for nothing. This seems unlikely. There were also weird WTF moments like in-hospital spread in a major city in a border region with a known outbreak going undetected for way too long at a time where even western countries that were "failing" at testing had enough in place to detect that. Also, a lot of the information about the source of the outbreaks and their successful methods for eradicating Covid is really obvious propaganda. On the other hand, their hospital system doesn't seem to be collapsing under a mass of Covid cases either.
    - DiogenesKynikos 6y ago
      It's not that difficult to know what's going on in China. There are many millions of Chinese people who call friends and family outside the country regularly. You can go read Chinese social media. There are Westerners in China who post to Western social media. There are even many people on HN who live in China. > if you believe their reporting the mass testing generally didn't find any cases at all That's not true. Their mass testing typically picked up further cases, which were isolated: * In the June 2020 Beijing outbreak, mass testing uncovered over 300 cases.[1] * In the October 2020 Qingdao outbreak, 9 additional cases (beyond the original three) were caught by mass testing.[2] That suggests that this outbreak was detected early. * In the October 2020 outbreak in Kashgar, over a hundred additional cases were detected through mass testing.[3] And of course, there was a more widespread outbreak in December (still concentrated in the Northeast), which peaked at over 100 new cases a day nationwide, and which was stopped with widespread lockdowns and mass testing. > Also, a lot of the information about the source of the outbreaks and their successful methods for eradicating Covid is really obvious propaganda. I assume you're talking about the cold chain. I don't see how that's "obvious propaganda." There's good evidence from contact-tracing that some of the subsequent outbreaks originated in people who work in the cold chain. It may seem strange from an American or European point of view, because the cold chain is way less of a problem than the literally millions of infected people walking around in Europe and the US. But in a country with essentially zero community spread and strict quarantine at the border, much less common pathways become a concern. It only takes one person touching a contaminated package and then touching their eyes to set off a new epidemic. 1. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7445627/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7445627/ 2. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2032361 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2032361 3. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-54687533 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-54687533
cfn 6y ago
We also had quarantine during last year and on top we grounded all the planes except for emergency and supplies.

by ern 6y ago

saiya-jin 6y ago

This is enforceable in remote island countries, but in ie Europe its not. You can't 100% lock the borders, there would be shortages of basically everything, from food to materials used in all industries. Europe is not so unified as US for example, there is a lot of independence, for better or worse. Food is transported on trucks, till it reaches from Spain say Poland it crosses minimum of 4-5 countries, each with their own covid situation, laws, rules, bans etc. If we knew back a year ago how bad things would get and are still getting, I believe such a lockdown for say a month could pass, otherwise not and there isn't a central authority that could enforce it. And saying it was to be expected doesn't make much sense, spread of predicted outcomes was basically between yet another flu to another spanish flu.

makomk 6y ago

New Zealand and Australia have had cases outside of quarantine despite every single traveller who enters those island nations being kept in hotel quarantine, tested multiple times, and being released only after the quarantine period ends. Some of those cases are directly traceable to quarantined travellers, some aren't. In any case, even those measures which aren't practical except in an island nation aren't effective enough to prevent outbreaks when implemented on a larger scale; the bigger the country the more opportunities for one of those cases to turn into something that's not easily controlled.

DiogenesKynikos 6y ago
China successfully followed the same strategy, so the strategy certainly can work for large, non-island countries. China had a few outbreaks (after Wuhan, obviously), but it responded to each one with quick restrictions on the affected location and mass testing of everyone in the region. That worked to contain these subsequent outbreaks. As a result, China has been essentially CoVID-19-free for about a year now.
- makomk 6y ago
  It's hard to tell what on earth is going on in China because a lot of the information coming out of there seems... dubious. As you say, they've had a few outbreaks which they responded to with large-scale lockdowns and mass testing, but if you believe their reporting the mass testing generally didn't find any cases at all which (if accurate) would mean the whole thing was for nothing. This seems unlikely. There were also weird WTF moments like in-hospital spread in a major city in a border region with a known outbreak going undetected for way too long at a time where even western countries that were "failing" at testing had enough in place to detect that. Also, a lot of the information about the source of the outbreaks and their successful methods for eradicating Covid is really obvious propaganda. On the other hand, their hospital system doesn't seem to be collapsing under a mass of Covid cases either.
  - DiogenesKynikos 6y ago
    It's not that difficult to know what's going on in China. There are many millions of Chinese people who call friends and family outside the country regularly. You can go read Chinese social media. There are Westerners in China who post to Western social media. There are even many people on HN who live in China. > if you believe their reporting the mass testing generally didn't find any cases at all That's not true. Their mass testing typically picked up further cases, which were isolated: * In the June 2020 Beijing outbreak, mass testing uncovered over 300 cases.[1] * In the October 2020 Qingdao outbreak, 9 additional cases (beyond the original three) were caught by mass testing.[2] That suggests that this outbreak was detected early. * In the October 2020 outbreak in Kashgar, over a hundred additional cases were detected through mass testing.[3] And of course, there was a more widespread outbreak in December (still concentrated in the Northeast), which peaked at over 100 new cases a day nationwide, and which was stopped with widespread lockdowns and mass testing. > Also, a lot of the information about the source of the outbreaks and their successful methods for eradicating Covid is really obvious propaganda. I assume you're talking about the cold chain. I don't see how that's "obvious propaganda." There's good evidence from contact-tracing that some of the subsequent outbreaks originated in people who work in the cold chain. It may seem strange from an American or European point of view, because the cold chain is way less of a problem than the literally millions of infected people walking around in Europe and the US. But in a country with essentially zero community spread and strict quarantine at the border, much less common pathways become a concern. It only takes one person touching a contaminated package and then touching their eyes to set off a new epidemic. 1. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7445627/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7445627/ 2. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2032361 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2032361 3. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-54687533 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-54687533

cfn 6y ago

We also had quarantine during last year and on top we grounded all the planes except for emergency and supplies.