4 ms·

That's an argument that can be made with numbers. The problem is we don't really have any. Your assertion that young adults are most likely to spread certainl

That's an argument that can be made with numbers. The problem is we don't really have any. Your assertion that young adults are most likely to spread certainly seems plausible, but the truth is we just don't know. So we made a relatively conservative policy choice and chose to take the low hanging fruit of reducing severe cases at the potential cost of a longer pandemic. It seems reasonable to me, given the facts on the ground. If you want to pick a nit with US vaccination policy with better grounding, aim at the fact that, with the two-dose mRNA vaccines, we're prioritizing the second dose much more heavily than we should. Numbers after a first dose show something like 70% effectiveness[1]. We should be getting everyone their first dose NOW and not wasting all that effectiveness on the comparatively less impactful booster. [1] Which is to say, a "1-dose" Pfizer or Moderna vaccine is almost exactly equivalent to the actually-single-dose J&J vaccine.

axaxs 6y ago
Agreed. Before I was vaccinated I read all the numbers I could find. Apparently all 3 show something like 90 percent effectiveness after 3 weeks, even without a second dose for those that ask for it. Seems much more effective to let everyone sit at 90ish, rather than halving the supply for an extra few percent.
tempestn 6y ago
It will certainly be interesting to follow the studies that will come out on this over the coming years. There are numerous different approaches being taken to vaccination that can be compared. Most of Canada is giving first doses to essentially the entire adult population (which is expected to take a few months) before beginning second doses. Indonesia is focusing on vaccinating young and active people - those most likely to spread the virus - before those most likely to die from it. It will be interesting to see how results compare. By the way, I've seen that the mRNA vaccines are even more effective than that after the first dose, if you just consider the period from about 10 days onward, ie after it has had a chance to kick in. Here in BC they're quoting a demonstrated efficacy of "up to 90%" from 10 days through to at least 3 months.
yowlingcat 6y ago
Setting aside the topical question of whether it's young adults or younger/older demos that drive the spread, we do have data and modeling to suggest that superspreading events have driven most of the infections [1]. If that's the case, then I think there's a question to be asked about which cohort is more likely than others (if any) to drive super-spreading events. That part I'm not so sure about. [1] https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-superspreading-events-drive-most-covid-19-spread1/ https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-superspreadin...

axaxs 6y ago

Agreed. Before I was vaccinated I read all the numbers I could find. Apparently all 3 show something like 90 percent effectiveness after 3 weeks, even without a second dose for those that ask for it. Seems much more effective to let everyone sit at 90ish, rather than halving the supply for an extra few percent.

tempestn 6y ago

It will certainly be interesting to follow the studies that will come out on this over the coming years. There are numerous different approaches being taken to vaccination that can be compared. Most of Canada is giving first doses to essentially the entire adult population (which is expected to take a few months) before beginning second doses. Indonesia is focusing on vaccinating young and active people - those most likely to spread the virus - before those most likely to die from it. It will be interesting to see how results compare. By the way, I've seen that the mRNA vaccines are even more effective than that after the first dose, if you just consider the period from about 10 days onward, ie after it has had a chance to kick in. Here in BC they're quoting a demonstrated efficacy of "up to 90%" from 10 days through to at least 3 months.

yowlingcat 6y ago

Setting aside the topical question of whether it's young adults or younger/older demos that drive the spread, we do have data and modeling to suggest that superspreading events have driven most of the infections [1]. If that's the case, then I think there's a question to be asked about which cohort is more likely than others (if any) to drive super-spreading events. That part I'm not so sure about. [1] https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-superspreading-events-drive-most-covid-19-spread1/ https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-superspreadin...