5 ms·

The day is rapidly approaching where we'll have to choose between the desire to blame and the desire to save lives. Fairly soon autopilot will be safer than ne

The day is rapidly approaching where we'll have to choose between the desire to blame and the desire to save lives. Fairly soon autopilot will be safer than new drivers and the elderly who are aging out of the ability to drive safely. I hope we have the political will to potentially save my parents' and child's life by allowing them to have an AI driver even if it's not 100% safe.

6gvONxR4sf7o 6y ago
I’ve been reading “fairly soon” for so many years now. People laughed on HN when you said we wouldn’t have it by 2020. I hope technologists are willing to do the hard work to make sure it actually is safer before making assertions that it is based on shoddy as-honest-as-an-advertisement statistics.
- Consultant32452 6y ago
  My parents will be alive for probably another 20 years. That's the kind of time horizons I'm looking at things, not the current marketing speak. If we get there within a decade, that will seem very quick to me and I'll be very happy with our progress.
  - foepys 6y ago
    And I make the prediction that Tesla's "Autopilot" in its current form of camera-only navigation will not be able to be safer than new drivers and the elderly (below 80) within the next 20 years, maybe ever. To be it must navigate any situation without any driver intervention: - parking in tight spaces - follow the assigned turn lanes in an intersection - follow the local laws on turn on red - navigating streets that are less than a meter wider than the vehicle and have vehicles parked alternating between right and left but are still both ways (very common in Europe) - nighttime driving in heavier rain - following diversions that are not published, badly signposted, and were set up quickly by the city due to sudden a hole or similar in the street - follow streets without any or even wrong markings on them Most importantly it must not drive people into dividers, well-lit emergency equipment, and/or crossing trailers. The fun thing about this is: we both won't ever be able to prove our theories right because neither enough elderly nor enough new drivers will own a Tesla with "Autopilot". They are just too expensive.
    - Armisael16 6y ago
      I don’t see anything in this comment thread that was specifically referring to Tesla self driving cars. I think the sentiment is for self-driving cars in general, achieved however.
    - Consultant32452 6y ago
      A decade is a long time, long enough for the entire tech stack of every self driving platform to change completely.
craftinator 6y ago
> Fairly soon autopilot will be safer than new drivers and the elderly This assumes that our hill climbing hasn't hit the top of the hill in this area. I submit that there's almost no evidence of recent continuous growth in this technology.
Spooky23 6y ago
I’m glad you have a magical belief without meaningful facts produced with meaningful oversight. Tesla’s representations are essentially “hold my beer while we provide not full self driving”.

6gvONxR4sf7o 6y ago

I’ve been reading “fairly soon” for so many years now. People laughed on HN when you said we wouldn’t have it by 2020. I hope technologists are willing to do the hard work to make sure it actually is safer before making assertions that it is based on shoddy as-honest-as-an-advertisement statistics.

Consultant32452 6y ago
My parents will be alive for probably another 20 years. That's the kind of time horizons I'm looking at things, not the current marketing speak. If we get there within a decade, that will seem very quick to me and I'll be very happy with our progress.
- foepys 6y ago
  And I make the prediction that Tesla's "Autopilot" in its current form of camera-only navigation will not be able to be safer than new drivers and the elderly (below 80) within the next 20 years, maybe ever. To be it must navigate any situation without any driver intervention: - parking in tight spaces - follow the assigned turn lanes in an intersection - follow the local laws on turn on red - navigating streets that are less than a meter wider than the vehicle and have vehicles parked alternating between right and left but are still both ways (very common in Europe) - nighttime driving in heavier rain - following diversions that are not published, badly signposted, and were set up quickly by the city due to sudden a hole or similar in the street - follow streets without any or even wrong markings on them Most importantly it must not drive people into dividers, well-lit emergency equipment, and/or crossing trailers. The fun thing about this is: we both won't ever be able to prove our theories right because neither enough elderly nor enough new drivers will own a Tesla with "Autopilot". They are just too expensive.
  - Armisael16 6y ago
    I don’t see anything in this comment thread that was specifically referring to Tesla self driving cars. I think the sentiment is for self-driving cars in general, achieved however.
  - Consultant32452 6y ago
    A decade is a long time, long enough for the entire tech stack of every self driving platform to change completely.

craftinator 6y ago

> Fairly soon autopilot will be safer than new drivers and the elderly This assumes that our hill climbing hasn't hit the top of the hill in this area. I submit that there's almost no evidence of recent continuous growth in this technology.

Spooky23 6y ago

I’m glad you have a magical belief without meaningful facts produced with meaningful oversight. Tesla’s representations are essentially “hold my beer while we provide not full self driving”.