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> "If it means snogging random strangers ... might not be a reasonable thing to do until late 2021 or after for most of us" 7000 people ages 18-39 have dies of

> "If it means snogging random strangers ... might not be a reasonable thing to do until late 2021 or after for most of us" 7000 people ages 18-39 have dies of covid19 in the U.S. [0][1]. There's at least 75 million people in that age group! (maybe more, sorry no handy/easy/exact reference) That's 1 in 10,000 odds of dying for that age group. They are 20 times more likely to die of something else. I think it is unreasonable that any of these people are restricting themselves out of fear. The 1 in 10,000 odds don't justify missing out on loosing the enjoyment of 1-2 in 20 years of their youth. For those who are healthy and not old the numbers do not appear to back up the prevailing fearful narrative around this virus. [0] https://www.statista.com/statistics/1191568/reported-deaths-from-covid-by-age-us/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1191568/reported-deaths-... [1] https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Deaths-Counts-by-Age-in-Years/3apk-4u4f https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Deaths-Counts...

ceejayoz 6y ago
Quite a few people 18-39 have friends and family in more vulnerable age groups they can spread it to, and the "one-in-tens-of-thousands" odds are with unprecedented global mitigation measures. "The odds are low with distancing and closed nightclubs" is a weird argument for packed nightclubs being safe.
- mikem170 6y ago
  Why did you put "one-in-tens-of-thousands" in quotes? I looked it up, in 2019 there were 89 million 20-39 years olds in the U.S. [0], and 7000 ages 18-39 died dies of covid19 [1]. Mathematically that works out to 1 in 12,714, and would be a bit higher were 18-19 years added to the denominator. I didn't mean to exaggerate this number. You mentioned family in vulnerable groups. Lets grant common sense, that someone who lives with their Grandparent's isn't going to go clubbing? EDIT: People need to use common sense, and they seem to, even in when they are not being forced. I wish that we could measure the effectiveness of mitigations. This may be your strongest counterpoint. I end up extrapolating worst case numbers sometimes. I'd love to see you come up with a worst case number. I've got the feeling we could agree on a number, but still might disagree on how we react to that number. Every weekend the beach bars near the Florida city I'm located in are busy. The majority of people are not wearing masks, sometimes almost nobody, sometimes that includes staff. Some places, with DJs and bands, are literally packed shoulder to shoulder as the night wears on. Like it was 2019 again! I've also been in NY for part of the pandemic, and keep up with my circle there. As far as I know it's like you said, the Florida beach bar scene would not be tolerated. The rules are a bit stricter in NY, better enforced, with less exceptions, with more state backing. So why are per capita covid19 deaths higher in NY than in Florida? Florida has 1500 deaths per million, and NY has 2500. [2] EDIT: I was replying to your points, and don't mean to sidetrack us. Perhaps we need to back up? Do you think it is unreasonable for a young person to go clubbing under any circumstances at the moment? IS a definite 1-2+ years of restrictions worth avoiding a small possible (1/1000 at worst?) chance of harm. [0] https://www.statista.com/statistics/241488/population-of-the-us-by-sex-and-age/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/241488/population-of-the... [1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/1191568/reported-deaths-from-covid-by-age-us/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1191568/reported-deaths-... [2] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
  - boldpandabear 6y ago
    Because viral theory is unproven and likely wrong. Much more likely that illness is the result of stress & conflict.
    - mikem170 6y ago
      What relevant viral theory do you think is wrong? Virologists know a good bit about coronavirusus, and so far I haven't seen where any of their prior knowledge that has not been applicable to the covid19 coronavirus. I've been reassured by what this body of knowledge has always had to say about the dangers of retransmission, the longevity of immunity, and the immunity conferred across variants, amongst other things. What do you mean about the illness being the result of stress and conflict? Are you saying that a covid19 is not transmitted by a coronavirus? How does any of the above apply to the dangers faced by young people? Only 7000 out of 89 million have died so far in the U.S. That is a low number, especially compared to a couple years out of someone's lifetime. Do you pay any attention to numbers?
      - boldpandabear 6y ago
        Any theory that suggests a particle causes illness is still unproven. Any theory that suggests particles jump from human to human and cause illness is also unproven. All studies where they’ve attempted to prove it, have failed. Almost all of viral theory rests on a study where mice trapped in dark chamber got sick when TB particles were piped in. Never been replicated.
  - ceejayoz 6y ago
    > Lets grant common sense, that someone who lives with their Grandparent's isn't going to go clubbing? Our recent history does not make me feel comfortable granting that. > Do you think it is unreasonable for a young person to go clubbing under any circumstances at the moment? I think it's unreasonable for local governments to permit said club to be open in the first place. > So why are per capita covid19 deaths higher in NY than in Florida? Florida has 1500 deaths per million, and NY has 2500. NYC got hit at the very beginning, before we'd settled on how to effectively treat, and before most of the mitigation was in place. Peaked at over a thousand deaths a day. https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2021/feb/26/instagram-posts/chart-comparing-new-york-and-florida-covid-19-flaw/ https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2021/feb/26/instagram-...
maxerickson 6y ago
1 in 10,000 is the death rate so far, not the individual odds of dying if everyone in the age group gets sick.
- betwixthewires 6y ago
  Sure, but its the data we have, and therefore the best estimate we have of the likelihood, on average.
  - maxerickson 6y ago
    The denominator could be an estimate of the number of people in the group that have been infected, that would probably be a better estimate of the individual risk from getting infected than just averaging the deaths so far out over the whole group.
    - betwixthewires 6y ago
      I believe that 1 in 10000 number is what you want it to be, the number of deaths per infection in that age group, not the number of deaths per population of that age group. 1 in 10000 infections leading to death gives us a presumably reasonably accurate likelihood of death rates if everyone in that age group were to get infected.
      - maxerickson 6y ago
        It's literally 7000/75 million, look at the numbers in the post I replied to and do the arithmetic.
    - mikem170 6y ago
      I used the population of that age group as the denominator. The numbers of infected by age group are not as easy to find, and perhaps not so accurate (confirmed vs non-confirmed, etc). I've approached this numerically since numbers started coming out of NYC last spring. It's just the way I've been comfortable estimating/qualifying the risk.
Animats 6y ago
Dying is 1 in 10,000. But about 10% of people who get coronavirus have some problems for months thereafter.[1] This is not well understood. "More than a third of them hadn’t returned to their usual state of health 2 to 3 weeks after testing positive. The older the patients, the more likely they were to say they their pre–COVID-19 health hadn’t come back. But even a quarter of the youngest, those aged 18 to 34 years, said they had not yet regained their health." [1] https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2771111 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2771111
- mikem170 6y ago
  There is a lot of precedent for this. For example, here's a paper talking about the flu and heart swelling: [0] > During the Sheffield, England influenza epi- demic from 1972 to 1973, the cases of 50 consecutive patients who were initially diagnosed as mild cases and were treated on an outpatient basis were followed. Transient electrocardiogram (ECG) changes were seen in 18 patients, and long-lasting changes were seen in 5 patients. It could be that the flu is worse than covid in this regard, the few studies I looked at were surprising/sobering. They were talking for years about "long-flu" after the 1918 pandemic. Until we have numbers to back it up I would not make the assumption that covid is any worse or different in this regard. Conventional wisdom is that every virus that attacks the body leaves some people with long term lung, heart, and or brain damage. The article you referenced itself references a paper that has that 10% figure, that many patients who remain unwell beyond three weeks (an example was given of a healthy 40 year old laid low, but back to moderate exercise after 12 weeks). The article you linked to mentioned that a quarter of 18-34 year olds were still affected after 2-3 weeks. I appreciate the additional numbers, the most impactful that anyone has brought up in this thread. It doesn't change my personal equation, but I appreciate the data. The world is a dangerous place. 18-39 years olds are about 20 times more likely to die of something beside covid [1]. Life goes on. [0] http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.685.8394&rep=rep1&type=pdf http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.685... [1] https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Deaths-Counts-by-Age-in-Years/3apk-4u4f https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Deaths-Counts...

ceejayoz 6y ago

Quite a few people 18-39 have friends and family in more vulnerable age groups they can spread it to, and the "one-in-tens-of-thousands" odds are with unprecedented global mitigation measures. "The odds are low with distancing and closed nightclubs" is a weird argument for packed nightclubs being safe.

mikem170 6y ago
Why did you put "one-in-tens-of-thousands" in quotes? I looked it up, in 2019 there were 89 million 20-39 years olds in the U.S. [0], and 7000 ages 18-39 died dies of covid19 [1]. Mathematically that works out to 1 in 12,714, and would be a bit higher were 18-19 years added to the denominator. I didn't mean to exaggerate this number. You mentioned family in vulnerable groups. Lets grant common sense, that someone who lives with their Grandparent's isn't going to go clubbing? EDIT: People need to use common sense, and they seem to, even in when they are not being forced. I wish that we could measure the effectiveness of mitigations. This may be your strongest counterpoint. I end up extrapolating worst case numbers sometimes. I'd love to see you come up with a worst case number. I've got the feeling we could agree on a number, but still might disagree on how we react to that number. Every weekend the beach bars near the Florida city I'm located in are busy. The majority of people are not wearing masks, sometimes almost nobody, sometimes that includes staff. Some places, with DJs and bands, are literally packed shoulder to shoulder as the night wears on. Like it was 2019 again! I've also been in NY for part of the pandemic, and keep up with my circle there. As far as I know it's like you said, the Florida beach bar scene would not be tolerated. The rules are a bit stricter in NY, better enforced, with less exceptions, with more state backing. So why are per capita covid19 deaths higher in NY than in Florida? Florida has 1500 deaths per million, and NY has 2500. [2] EDIT: I was replying to your points, and don't mean to sidetrack us. Perhaps we need to back up? Do you think it is unreasonable for a young person to go clubbing under any circumstances at the moment? IS a definite 1-2+ years of restrictions worth avoiding a small possible (1/1000 at worst?) chance of harm. [0] https://www.statista.com/statistics/241488/population-of-the-us-by-sex-and-age/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/241488/population-of-the... [1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/1191568/reported-deaths-from-covid-by-age-us/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1191568/reported-deaths-... [2] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
- boldpandabear 6y ago
  Because viral theory is unproven and likely wrong. Much more likely that illness is the result of stress & conflict.
  - mikem170 6y ago
    What relevant viral theory do you think is wrong? Virologists know a good bit about coronavirusus, and so far I haven't seen where any of their prior knowledge that has not been applicable to the covid19 coronavirus. I've been reassured by what this body of knowledge has always had to say about the dangers of retransmission, the longevity of immunity, and the immunity conferred across variants, amongst other things. What do you mean about the illness being the result of stress and conflict? Are you saying that a covid19 is not transmitted by a coronavirus? How does any of the above apply to the dangers faced by young people? Only 7000 out of 89 million have died so far in the U.S. That is a low number, especially compared to a couple years out of someone's lifetime. Do you pay any attention to numbers?
    - boldpandabear 6y ago
      Any theory that suggests a particle causes illness is still unproven. Any theory that suggests particles jump from human to human and cause illness is also unproven. All studies where they’ve attempted to prove it, have failed. Almost all of viral theory rests on a study where mice trapped in dark chamber got sick when TB particles were piped in. Never been replicated.
- ceejayoz 6y ago
  > Lets grant common sense, that someone who lives with their Grandparent's isn't going to go clubbing? Our recent history does not make me feel comfortable granting that. > Do you think it is unreasonable for a young person to go clubbing under any circumstances at the moment? I think it's unreasonable for local governments to permit said club to be open in the first place. > So why are per capita covid19 deaths higher in NY than in Florida? Florida has 1500 deaths per million, and NY has 2500. NYC got hit at the very beginning, before we'd settled on how to effectively treat, and before most of the mitigation was in place. Peaked at over a thousand deaths a day. https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2021/feb/26/instagram-posts/chart-comparing-new-york-and-florida-covid-19-flaw/ https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2021/feb/26/instagram-...

maxerickson 6y ago

1 in 10,000 is the death rate so far, not the individual odds of dying if everyone in the age group gets sick.

betwixthewires 6y ago
Sure, but its the data we have, and therefore the best estimate we have of the likelihood, on average.
- maxerickson 6y ago
  The denominator could be an estimate of the number of people in the group that have been infected, that would probably be a better estimate of the individual risk from getting infected than just averaging the deaths so far out over the whole group.
  - betwixthewires 6y ago
    I believe that 1 in 10000 number is what you want it to be, the number of deaths per infection in that age group, not the number of deaths per population of that age group. 1 in 10000 infections leading to death gives us a presumably reasonably accurate likelihood of death rates if everyone in that age group were to get infected.
    - maxerickson 6y ago
      It's literally 7000/75 million, look at the numbers in the post I replied to and do the arithmetic.
  - mikem170 6y ago
    I used the population of that age group as the denominator. The numbers of infected by age group are not as easy to find, and perhaps not so accurate (confirmed vs non-confirmed, etc). I've approached this numerically since numbers started coming out of NYC last spring. It's just the way I've been comfortable estimating/qualifying the risk.

Animats 6y ago

Dying is 1 in 10,000. But about 10% of people who get coronavirus have some problems for months thereafter.[1] This is not well understood. "More than a third of them hadn’t returned to their usual state of health 2 to 3 weeks after testing positive. The older the patients, the more likely they were to say they their pre–COVID-19 health hadn’t come back. But even a quarter of the youngest, those aged 18 to 34 years, said they had not yet regained their health." [1] https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2771111 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2771111

mikem170 6y ago
There is a lot of precedent for this. For example, here's a paper talking about the flu and heart swelling: [0] > During the Sheffield, England influenza epi- demic from 1972 to 1973, the cases of 50 consecutive patients who were initially diagnosed as mild cases and were treated on an outpatient basis were followed. Transient electrocardiogram (ECG) changes were seen in 18 patients, and long-lasting changes were seen in 5 patients. It could be that the flu is worse than covid in this regard, the few studies I looked at were surprising/sobering. They were talking for years about "long-flu" after the 1918 pandemic. Until we have numbers to back it up I would not make the assumption that covid is any worse or different in this regard. Conventional wisdom is that every virus that attacks the body leaves some people with long term lung, heart, and or brain damage. The article you referenced itself references a paper that has that 10% figure, that many patients who remain unwell beyond three weeks (an example was given of a healthy 40 year old laid low, but back to moderate exercise after 12 weeks). The article you linked to mentioned that a quarter of 18-34 year olds were still affected after 2-3 weeks. I appreciate the additional numbers, the most impactful that anyone has brought up in this thread. It doesn't change my personal equation, but I appreciate the data. The world is a dangerous place. 18-39 years olds are about 20 times more likely to die of something beside covid [1]. Life goes on. [0] http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.685.8394&rep=rep1&type=pdf http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.685... [1] https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Deaths-Counts-by-Age-in-Years/3apk-4u4f https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Deaths-Counts...