5 ms·

The fact that they’re planning for years in the future doesn’t mean it’ll take that long for things to get back to normal.

tialaramex 6y ago
That also depends what "normal" means to you. If normal just means you get to hug your grandmother who lives an hour away it might be safe right now (in a bunch of countries) or permitted but perhaps unwise (in a lot more countries) and it's likely that for most HN readers it will become a reasonable thing to do around mid-2021. If it means snogging random strangers at a crowded nightclub after a night of drinking that is safe in a very few places (only a handful of countries with elimination or close enough have "crowded nightclubs" in the first place, those aren't a thing on tiny Pacific islands many of which are COVID free) and legal but unwise in some parts of the world right now but it might not be a reasonable thing to do until late 2021 or after for most of us. If it means spending a week on safari in some poor country to see exotic wildlife, that likely will not be a reasonable thing to do until at least 2022 and maybe later, it may be technically safe for you earlier, but it probably needlessly exposes the locals to a virus they have yet to receive immunisation for so you shouldn't do it.
- Mediterraneo10 6y ago
  > If it means spending a week on safari in some poor country to see exotic wildlife, that likely will not be a reasonable thing to do until at least 2022 and maybe later But this is a problem. Wildlife conservation efforts in East Africa and Madagascar depend almost entirely on income from tourists, because state support is meagre. Already some activists on the ground in Kenya have complained that the past year with no tourists has severely impacted conservation efforts, and poaching and illegal landuse has already begun to return. Also, public-health exhortations like yours operate on the assumption that every life must be saved. In the real world, that just isn’t the case: now that the vaccines are out, some countries will accept some degree of higher mortality in order to extract vital income from tourism. Even during this COVID year, several countries have remained open to tourists for that reason.
- mikem170 6y ago
  > "If it means snogging random strangers ... might not be a reasonable thing to do until late 2021 or after for most of us" 7000 people ages 18-39 have dies of covid19 in the U.S. [0][1]. There's at least 75 million people in that age group! (maybe more, sorry no handy/easy/exact reference) That's 1 in 10,000 odds of dying for that age group. They are 20 times more likely to die of something else. I think it is unreasonable that any of these people are restricting themselves out of fear. The 1 in 10,000 odds don't justify missing out on loosing the enjoyment of 1-2 in 20 years of their youth. For those who are healthy and not old the numbers do not appear to back up the prevailing fearful narrative around this virus. [0] https://www.statista.com/statistics/1191568/reported-deaths-from-covid-by-age-us/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1191568/reported-deaths-... [1] https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Deaths-Counts-by-Age-in-Years/3apk-4u4f https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Deaths-Counts...
  - ceejayoz 6y ago
    Quite a few people 18-39 have friends and family in more vulnerable age groups they can spread it to, and the "one-in-tens-of-thousands" odds are with unprecedented global mitigation measures. "The odds are low with distancing and closed nightclubs" is a weird argument for packed nightclubs being safe.
    - mikem170 6y ago
      Why did you put "one-in-tens-of-thousands" in quotes? I looked it up, in 2019 there were 89 million 20-39 years olds in the U.S. [0], and 7000 ages 18-39 died dies of covid19 [1]. Mathematically that works out to 1 in 12,714, and would be a bit higher were 18-19 years added to the denominator. I didn't mean to exaggerate this number. You mentioned family in vulnerable groups. Lets grant common sense, that someone who lives with their Grandparent's isn't going to go clubbing? EDIT: People need to use common sense, and they seem to, even in when they are not being forced. I wish that we could measure the effectiveness of mitigations. This may be your strongest counterpoint. I end up extrapolating worst case numbers sometimes. I'd love to see you come up with a worst case number. I've got the feeling we could agree on a number, but still might disagree on how we react to that number. Every weekend the beach bars near the Florida city I'm located in are busy. The majority of people are not wearing masks, sometimes almost nobody, sometimes that includes staff. Some places, with DJs and bands, are literally packed shoulder to shoulder as the night wears on. Like it was 2019 again! I've also been in NY for part of the pandemic, and keep up with my circle there. As far as I know it's like you said, the Florida beach bar scene would not be tolerated. The rules are a bit stricter in NY, better enforced, with less exceptions, with more state backing. So why are per capita covid19 deaths higher in NY than in Florida? Florida has 1500 deaths per million, and NY has 2500. [2] EDIT: I was replying to your points, and don't mean to sidetrack us. Perhaps we need to back up? Do you think it is unreasonable for a young person to go clubbing under any circumstances at the moment? IS a definite 1-2+ years of restrictions worth avoiding a small possible (1/1000 at worst?) chance of harm. [0] https://www.statista.com/statistics/241488/population-of-the-us-by-sex-and-age/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/241488/population-of-the... [1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/1191568/reported-deaths-from-covid-by-age-us/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1191568/reported-deaths-... [2] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

tialaramex 6y ago

That also depends what "normal" means to you. If normal just means you get to hug your grandmother who lives an hour away it might be safe right now (in a bunch of countries) or permitted but perhaps unwise (in a lot more countries) and it's likely that for most HN readers it will become a reasonable thing to do around mid-2021. If it means snogging random strangers at a crowded nightclub after a night of drinking that is safe in a very few places (only a handful of countries with elimination or close enough have "crowded nightclubs" in the first place, those aren't a thing on tiny Pacific islands many of which are COVID free) and legal but unwise in some parts of the world right now but it might not be a reasonable thing to do until late 2021 or after for most of us. If it means spending a week on safari in some poor country to see exotic wildlife, that likely will not be a reasonable thing to do until at least 2022 and maybe later, it may be technically safe for you earlier, but it probably needlessly exposes the locals to a virus they have yet to receive immunisation for so you shouldn't do it.

Mediterraneo10 6y ago
> If it means spending a week on safari in some poor country to see exotic wildlife, that likely will not be a reasonable thing to do until at least 2022 and maybe later But this is a problem. Wildlife conservation efforts in East Africa and Madagascar depend almost entirely on income from tourists, because state support is meagre. Already some activists on the ground in Kenya have complained that the past year with no tourists has severely impacted conservation efforts, and poaching and illegal landuse has already begun to return. Also, public-health exhortations like yours operate on the assumption that every life must be saved. In the real world, that just isn’t the case: now that the vaccines are out, some countries will accept some degree of higher mortality in order to extract vital income from tourism. Even during this COVID year, several countries have remained open to tourists for that reason.
mikem170 6y ago
> "If it means snogging random strangers ... might not be a reasonable thing to do until late 2021 or after for most of us" 7000 people ages 18-39 have dies of covid19 in the U.S. [0][1]. There's at least 75 million people in that age group! (maybe more, sorry no handy/easy/exact reference) That's 1 in 10,000 odds of dying for that age group. They are 20 times more likely to die of something else. I think it is unreasonable that any of these people are restricting themselves out of fear. The 1 in 10,000 odds don't justify missing out on loosing the enjoyment of 1-2 in 20 years of their youth. For those who are healthy and not old the numbers do not appear to back up the prevailing fearful narrative around this virus. [0] https://www.statista.com/statistics/1191568/reported-deaths-from-covid-by-age-us/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1191568/reported-deaths-... [1] https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Deaths-Counts-by-Age-in-Years/3apk-4u4f https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Deaths-Counts...
- ceejayoz 6y ago
  Quite a few people 18-39 have friends and family in more vulnerable age groups they can spread it to, and the "one-in-tens-of-thousands" odds are with unprecedented global mitigation measures. "The odds are low with distancing and closed nightclubs" is a weird argument for packed nightclubs being safe.
  - mikem170 6y ago
    Why did you put "one-in-tens-of-thousands" in quotes? I looked it up, in 2019 there were 89 million 20-39 years olds in the U.S. [0], and 7000 ages 18-39 died dies of covid19 [1]. Mathematically that works out to 1 in 12,714, and would be a bit higher were 18-19 years added to the denominator. I didn't mean to exaggerate this number. You mentioned family in vulnerable groups. Lets grant common sense, that someone who lives with their Grandparent's isn't going to go clubbing? EDIT: People need to use common sense, and they seem to, even in when they are not being forced. I wish that we could measure the effectiveness of mitigations. This may be your strongest counterpoint. I end up extrapolating worst case numbers sometimes. I'd love to see you come up with a worst case number. I've got the feeling we could agree on a number, but still might disagree on how we react to that number. Every weekend the beach bars near the Florida city I'm located in are busy. The majority of people are not wearing masks, sometimes almost nobody, sometimes that includes staff. Some places, with DJs and bands, are literally packed shoulder to shoulder as the night wears on. Like it was 2019 again! I've also been in NY for part of the pandemic, and keep up with my circle there. As far as I know it's like you said, the Florida beach bar scene would not be tolerated. The rules are a bit stricter in NY, better enforced, with less exceptions, with more state backing. So why are per capita covid19 deaths higher in NY than in Florida? Florida has 1500 deaths per million, and NY has 2500. [2] EDIT: I was replying to your points, and don't mean to sidetrack us. Perhaps we need to back up? Do you think it is unreasonable for a young person to go clubbing under any circumstances at the moment? IS a definite 1-2+ years of restrictions worth avoiding a small possible (1/1000 at worst?) chance of harm. [0] https://www.statista.com/statistics/241488/population-of-the-us-by-sex-and-age/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/241488/population-of-the... [1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/1191568/reported-deaths-from-covid-by-age-us/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1191568/reported-deaths-... [2] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/