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What nobody wants to talk about is that it might take several more years for things to go back to somewhat normal. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/ar

What nobody wants to talk about is that it might take several more years for things to go back to somewhat normal. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00424-4/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6... >In developing its COVID-19 Scenarios Project, the ISC has consulted with WHO and the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction. The ISC has established in February, 2021, a multidisciplinary Oversight Panel made up of globally representative world experts in relevant disciplines to work with a technical team to produce the scenario map. The Oversight Panel will report within 6–8 months to the global community on the possible COVID-19 scenarios that lie ahead over the next 3–5 years, and on the choices that could be made by governments, agencies, and citizens to provide a pathway to an optimistic outcome for the world.

beervirus 6y ago
The fact that they’re planning for years in the future doesn’t mean it’ll take that long for things to get back to normal.
- tialaramex 6y ago
  That also depends what "normal" means to you. If normal just means you get to hug your grandmother who lives an hour away it might be safe right now (in a bunch of countries) or permitted but perhaps unwise (in a lot more countries) and it's likely that for most HN readers it will become a reasonable thing to do around mid-2021. If it means snogging random strangers at a crowded nightclub after a night of drinking that is safe in a very few places (only a handful of countries with elimination or close enough have "crowded nightclubs" in the first place, those aren't a thing on tiny Pacific islands many of which are COVID free) and legal but unwise in some parts of the world right now but it might not be a reasonable thing to do until late 2021 or after for most of us. If it means spending a week on safari in some poor country to see exotic wildlife, that likely will not be a reasonable thing to do until at least 2022 and maybe later, it may be technically safe for you earlier, but it probably needlessly exposes the locals to a virus they have yet to receive immunisation for so you shouldn't do it.
  - Mediterraneo10 6y ago
    > If it means spending a week on safari in some poor country to see exotic wildlife, that likely will not be a reasonable thing to do until at least 2022 and maybe later But this is a problem. Wildlife conservation efforts in East Africa and Madagascar depend almost entirely on income from tourists, because state support is meagre. Already some activists on the ground in Kenya have complained that the past year with no tourists has severely impacted conservation efforts, and poaching and illegal landuse has already begun to return. Also, public-health exhortations like yours operate on the assumption that every life must be saved. In the real world, that just isn’t the case: now that the vaccines are out, some countries will accept some degree of higher mortality in order to extract vital income from tourism. Even during this COVID year, several countries have remained open to tourists for that reason.
  - mikem170 6y ago
    > "If it means snogging random strangers ... might not be a reasonable thing to do until late 2021 or after for most of us" 7000 people ages 18-39 have dies of covid19 in the U.S. [0][1]. There's at least 75 million people in that age group! (maybe more, sorry no handy/easy/exact reference) That's 1 in 10,000 odds of dying for that age group. They are 20 times more likely to die of something else. I think it is unreasonable that any of these people are restricting themselves out of fear. The 1 in 10,000 odds don't justify missing out on loosing the enjoyment of 1-2 in 20 years of their youth. For those who are healthy and not old the numbers do not appear to back up the prevailing fearful narrative around this virus. [0] https://www.statista.com/statistics/1191568/reported-deaths-from-covid-by-age-us/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1191568/reported-deaths-... [1] https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Deaths-Counts-by-Age-in-Years/3apk-4u4f https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Deaths-Counts...
    - ceejayoz 6y ago
      Quite a few people 18-39 have friends and family in more vulnerable age groups they can spread it to, and the "one-in-tens-of-thousands" odds are with unprecedented global mitigation measures. "The odds are low with distancing and closed nightclubs" is a weird argument for packed nightclubs being safe.
Trasmatta 6y ago
> it might take several more years for things to go back to somewhat normal. People always make statements like this, but nobody defines what "normal" actually means. Some things will probably never go back to the way they were. Does that mean things won't be "normal"? Normal also means entirely different things for different countries and different individuals. That's why I dislike statements like this, unless there's at least an attempt to define what you mean by "normal".
- betwixthewires 6y ago
  Let's define normal as, no lockdowns, no business restrictions, public gathering restrictions, public activity restrictions, and no mask requirements.
  - pbourke 6y ago
    For all of those, you’re probably looking at 2022. For some - enough that it feels much more like normal than it has in over a year - the middle of summer seems like a safe bet for most of the US.
    - betwixthewires 6y ago
      Where I am those are already gone. It is already "normal". There is still a lot of voluntary mask wearing, and the social pressure that comes with that, so not completely normal, and I'd still be subject to travel restrictions, but those two weren't in my definition. I think it will be a lot sooner than you think, because it's already happening in a lot of places.
- tubularhells 6y ago
  For my fellow autists: normal = 2019.
rimliu 6y ago
That's globaly. In countries where most at risk groups are vaccinated they can go back to normal in a few months.

beervirus 6y ago

The fact that they’re planning for years in the future doesn’t mean it’ll take that long for things to get back to normal.

tialaramex 6y ago
That also depends what "normal" means to you. If normal just means you get to hug your grandmother who lives an hour away it might be safe right now (in a bunch of countries) or permitted but perhaps unwise (in a lot more countries) and it's likely that for most HN readers it will become a reasonable thing to do around mid-2021. If it means snogging random strangers at a crowded nightclub after a night of drinking that is safe in a very few places (only a handful of countries with elimination or close enough have "crowded nightclubs" in the first place, those aren't a thing on tiny Pacific islands many of which are COVID free) and legal but unwise in some parts of the world right now but it might not be a reasonable thing to do until late 2021 or after for most of us. If it means spending a week on safari in some poor country to see exotic wildlife, that likely will not be a reasonable thing to do until at least 2022 and maybe later, it may be technically safe for you earlier, but it probably needlessly exposes the locals to a virus they have yet to receive immunisation for so you shouldn't do it.
- Mediterraneo10 6y ago
  > If it means spending a week on safari in some poor country to see exotic wildlife, that likely will not be a reasonable thing to do until at least 2022 and maybe later But this is a problem. Wildlife conservation efforts in East Africa and Madagascar depend almost entirely on income from tourists, because state support is meagre. Already some activists on the ground in Kenya have complained that the past year with no tourists has severely impacted conservation efforts, and poaching and illegal landuse has already begun to return. Also, public-health exhortations like yours operate on the assumption that every life must be saved. In the real world, that just isn’t the case: now that the vaccines are out, some countries will accept some degree of higher mortality in order to extract vital income from tourism. Even during this COVID year, several countries have remained open to tourists for that reason.
- mikem170 6y ago
  > "If it means snogging random strangers ... might not be a reasonable thing to do until late 2021 or after for most of us" 7000 people ages 18-39 have dies of covid19 in the U.S. [0][1]. There's at least 75 million people in that age group! (maybe more, sorry no handy/easy/exact reference) That's 1 in 10,000 odds of dying for that age group. They are 20 times more likely to die of something else. I think it is unreasonable that any of these people are restricting themselves out of fear. The 1 in 10,000 odds don't justify missing out on loosing the enjoyment of 1-2 in 20 years of their youth. For those who are healthy and not old the numbers do not appear to back up the prevailing fearful narrative around this virus. [0] https://www.statista.com/statistics/1191568/reported-deaths-from-covid-by-age-us/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1191568/reported-deaths-... [1] https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Deaths-Counts-by-Age-in-Years/3apk-4u4f https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Deaths-Counts...
  - ceejayoz 6y ago
    Quite a few people 18-39 have friends and family in more vulnerable age groups they can spread it to, and the "one-in-tens-of-thousands" odds are with unprecedented global mitigation measures. "The odds are low with distancing and closed nightclubs" is a weird argument for packed nightclubs being safe.

Trasmatta 6y ago

> it might take several more years for things to go back to somewhat normal. People always make statements like this, but nobody defines what "normal" actually means. Some things will probably never go back to the way they were. Does that mean things won't be "normal"? Normal also means entirely different things for different countries and different individuals. That's why I dislike statements like this, unless there's at least an attempt to define what you mean by "normal".

betwixthewires 6y ago
Let's define normal as, no lockdowns, no business restrictions, public gathering restrictions, public activity restrictions, and no mask requirements.
- pbourke 6y ago
  For all of those, you’re probably looking at 2022. For some - enough that it feels much more like normal than it has in over a year - the middle of summer seems like a safe bet for most of the US.
  - betwixthewires 6y ago
    Where I am those are already gone. It is already "normal". There is still a lot of voluntary mask wearing, and the social pressure that comes with that, so not completely normal, and I'd still be subject to travel restrictions, but those two weren't in my definition. I think it will be a lot sooner than you think, because it's already happening in a lot of places.
tubularhells 6y ago
For my fellow autists: normal = 2019.

rimliu 6y ago

That's globaly. In countries where most at risk groups are vaccinated they can go back to normal in a few months.