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> I don't understand why they even attempt to push beyond even basic driver assistance. Well, this is, actually, quite understandable. Tesla and many investors
by ablekh 6y ago
> I don't understand why they even attempt to push beyond even basic driver assistance.
Well, this is, actually, quite understandable. Tesla and many investors in the company, especially Cathy Wood and her ARK Invest, assume high correlation between Tesla's future success or even survival with the success of the company's autonomous driving strategy, which, they argue, could win the lion's share of the global robo-taxi, robo-delivery and ride-hailing markets (with selling a relevant subscription service to future owners of FSD-enabled Tesla vehicles being IMO a secondary and insignificant revenue stream). This can be easily illustrated by reviewing some of the relevant ARK's open research materials[1-4]. Elsewhere on the Internet, a notable coverage of FSD that I'm aware of (though I haven't yet had a chance to review) is provided by Tesla investor and popular YouTube blogger Dave Lee, who offers multiple - as of today, I've counted five of them - detailed video interviews on Tesla's FSD on his YouTube channel "Dave Lee on Investing"[5].
[1] https://ark-invest.com/articles/analyst-research/tesla-ride-hail-update https://ark-invest.com/articles/analyst-research/tesla-ride-...
[2] https://ark-invest.com/articles/analyst-research/ride-hailing https://ark-invest.com/articles/analyst-research/ride-hailin...
[3] https://ark-invest.com/articles/analyst-research/autonomous-ridehailing-fees https://ark-invest.com/articles/analyst-research/autonomous-...
[4] https://ark-invest.com/articles/analyst-research/tesla-price-target https://ark-invest.com/articles/analyst-research/tesla-price...
[5] https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCi2G5aQTN0YwGIfnt1u7Nbg https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCi2G5aQTN0YwGIfnt1u7Nbg
- dehrmann 6y ago> assume high correlation between Tesla's future success or even survival with the success of the company's autonomous driving strategy, which, they argue, could win the lion's share of the global robo-taxi, robo-delivery and ride-hailing markets Except Waymo has better tech, is working toward a similar goal, and has a stronger balance sheet. Google has a history of dropping the ball on opportunities, but unlike cloud computing, they're already a leader in this space. People want Tesla to succeed and like the company's story, but it basically requires every other automaker to fail in order to justify its valuation. Or Bitcoin to hit $500k.
- ablekh 6y agoI agree with you on major points. Tesla proponents' ignorance of competition (both technical and general / market share) is difficult to comprehend. Re: Bitcoin - I disagree, it is a totally different story, but it's off-topic / outside of the scope here.
- random314 6y agoTesla did buy 1.5B$ bitcoins, so ..
- ablekh 6y agoYou're right, see my comment above.
- smnrchrds 6y agoI believe the comment refers to the fact that Tesla bought a lot of bitcoins. So for their current valuation to make sense, either they have to succeed in monopolizing the auto market, or their bitcoins have to go up a lot in value.
- ablekh 6y agoYou're right. I somehow misinterpreted that part of the comment. Having said that, I doubt that Tesla's Bitcoin investment could be a foundation for its current valuation (as of today, > $660B). The $500K BTC price implies ~10x growth, so the value of that $1.5B investment would equal to ~$15B, which is still far less than the target number.