> No, I don't think it is. Separately from rationalist community, there is substantial amount of work showing that Bayesian updating and reasoning is in some se

> No, I don't think it is. Separately from rationalist community, there is substantial amount of work showing that Bayesian updating and reasoning is in some sense the optimal way of operating under uncertainty. With the very important proviso that the events you're uncertain about are at least probabilistically quantifiable and the "priors" are credible. It's very easy to write a long winded essay arriving at any conclusion you want if it's a subject with significant uncertainty and you can make a halfway decent appeal to whatever priors you want.