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You can't build a "lead" as if this was a race. For one thing, there's no finish line. There's nothing stopping fuel cell cars from having their own technology

by Hypx 6y ago

You can't build a "lead" as if this was a race. For one thing, there's no finish line. There's nothing stopping fuel cell cars from having their own technology revolution and a S-curve like adoption curve that displaces everything else. This could happen ever after EVs "win" over internal combustion so to speak. It's fully possible that EVs are still on-track to being replaced no matter what happens next. The other thing is that we still have to pay attention to fundamental limitations. There are hard limits to battery energy density that likely to never be crossed. Extremely fast-charging will probably always be limited by its high power power draw. Meanwhile, fuel cell technology is advancing extremely quickly in its own right. We could be seeing fuel cell cars that cost as much as a Corolla[1], and cost only $1.5/kg[2] to refuel (or about 2-3¢ per mile). In a world were fuel cell cars cost <$20k and are cheaper to run than EVs, while also delivering 400 miles of range and 5-minute refueling times, EVs quickly lose much of their luster. [1] https://www.thedrive.com/tech/26050/exclusive-toyota-hydrogen-boss-explains-how-fuel-cells-can-achieve-corolla-costs https://www.thedrive.com/tech/26050/exclusive-toyota-hydroge... [2] https://renewablesnow.com/news/nel-aiming-at-green-hydrogen-production-for-usd-15kg-by-2025-728693/ https://renewablesnow.com/news/nel-aiming-at-green-hydrogen-...

rini17 6y ago
There is still a hard limit to hydrogen energy density that is likely to never be crossed. And safe consumer-friendly handling of pure hydrogen is much more expensive than electricity, that also stems from physical limitations. These limitations are being hit now. On the other side, batteries and chargers did not hit their hard physical limitations yet. Supercapacitors exchanging many megawatts of energy over superconductive wires are feasible.
- Hypx 6y ago
  Hydrogen energy density is around 39,000 Wh/kg. That's rarely going to the limiting factor. The physical limitations are nearly the same as natural gas, which is to say they are easily solvable. Superconducting wires will have their own major issues that are a long ways away from being solved. In reality, we're nearly at the point where hydrogen is a solved problem, but batteries will be a very long ways away from being a car for everyone. In particular, you've ignored the limits on battery energy density which will likely limit battery powered cars to either expensive luxury cars or short-ranged urban cars.
  - rini17 6y ago
    You conveniently omitted the storage vessel factor from the energy density. And it's definitely not comparable to natural gas in other respects too, such as hydrogen is corrosive and needs special alloys or nonmetal materials. Superconducing wires are already and increasingly used in practice. Even without superconductors we can just keep raising the voltage and use copper, there are new silicon carbide power transistors that make it possible. We aren't near physical limit yet. Other assertions of yours are likewise unfounded, too. I can totally see hydrogen airplanes but for cars it's too little too late.
    - Hypx 6y ago
      From a theoretical standpoint, you don't need to worry about that. You can conceive of metal hydrides or other forms of dense hydrogen storage. Even as LH₂, you're still looking at around 2700 Wh/L of energy. That's well beyond any known rechargeable battery. And the "special alloys" really just mean certain types of steel alloy, and "nonmetal materials" really mean certain types of plastics. This is not a big challenge. You still need very low temperatures and exotic materials for superconducting cables. Not to mention the power generation needed to sustain that level of power draw. This is a long-term problem that we're nowhere near solving. As I said before, this is not a race and there is no finish line. There's nothing stopping fuel cell cars from displacing EVs at an arbitrary point in the future.
      - rini17 6y ago
        From theoretical standpoint why not jump ahead to antimatter? :) Electricity is a solved problem, most obstacles to additional power generation and transport are bureaucratic in nature.
        Hypx 6y ago
        As soon as everyone agrees to build more nuclear power... We're not anywhere near ready to use anti-matter, but the next best thing faces extreme opposition for some reason. Hydrogen is pretty much a solved problem too. Most of the critics are just stuck in 2010 or earlier.

by Hypx 6y ago

rini17 6y ago

There is still a hard limit to hydrogen energy density that is likely to never be crossed. And safe consumer-friendly handling of pure hydrogen is much more expensive than electricity, that also stems from physical limitations. These limitations are being hit now. On the other side, batteries and chargers did not hit their hard physical limitations yet. Supercapacitors exchanging many megawatts of energy over superconductive wires are feasible.

Hypx 6y ago
Hydrogen energy density is around 39,000 Wh/kg. That's rarely going to the limiting factor. The physical limitations are nearly the same as natural gas, which is to say they are easily solvable. Superconducting wires will have their own major issues that are a long ways away from being solved. In reality, we're nearly at the point where hydrogen is a solved problem, but batteries will be a very long ways away from being a car for everyone. In particular, you've ignored the limits on battery energy density which will likely limit battery powered cars to either expensive luxury cars or short-ranged urban cars.
- rini17 6y ago
  You conveniently omitted the storage vessel factor from the energy density. And it's definitely not comparable to natural gas in other respects too, such as hydrogen is corrosive and needs special alloys or nonmetal materials. Superconducing wires are already and increasingly used in practice. Even without superconductors we can just keep raising the voltage and use copper, there are new silicon carbide power transistors that make it possible. We aren't near physical limit yet. Other assertions of yours are likewise unfounded, too. I can totally see hydrogen airplanes but for cars it's too little too late.
  - Hypx 6y ago
    From a theoretical standpoint, you don't need to worry about that. You can conceive of metal hydrides or other forms of dense hydrogen storage. Even as LH₂, you're still looking at around 2700 Wh/L of energy. That's well beyond any known rechargeable battery. And the "special alloys" really just mean certain types of steel alloy, and "nonmetal materials" really mean certain types of plastics. This is not a big challenge. You still need very low temperatures and exotic materials for superconducting cables. Not to mention the power generation needed to sustain that level of power draw. This is a long-term problem that we're nowhere near solving. As I said before, this is not a race and there is no finish line. There's nothing stopping fuel cell cars from displacing EVs at an arbitrary point in the future.
    - rini17 6y ago
      From theoretical standpoint why not jump ahead to antimatter? :) Electricity is a solved problem, most obstacles to additional power generation and transport are bureaucratic in nature.
      - Hypx 6y ago
        As soon as everyone agrees to build more nuclear power... We're not anywhere near ready to use anti-matter, but the next best thing faces extreme opposition for some reason. Hydrogen is pretty much a solved problem too. Most of the critics are just stuck in 2010 or earlier.