3 ms·
> the conspiracy theory makes weak predictions about upcoming observations, so it loses probability mass very slowly as a whole That may be the case for conspi
by yorwba 6y ago
> the conspiracy theory makes weak predictions about upcoming observations, so it loses probability mass very slowly as a whole
That may be the case for conspiracy theories, but I'd expect the theory that dogs are dangerous to make much stronger predictions. On the other hand, maybe people who're afraid of dogs don't expect them to behave differently, they just think that everything dogs do is scary (which is true, since they're scared by everything dogs do.)
- jbay808 6y agoI think you're right; it could be either. In this example, if their fear of dogs causes them to misperceive a dog's excitement as anger, then it's closer to the scenario in the article. But if their paranoia is such that they perceive the dog is acting friendly but interpret that as the dog luring them into a sense of safety to bite them later, then it's more like the conspiracy theory case.
- Siira 6y agoIt’s about power; Dogs being violent isn’t super rare, and if a dog decides to get violent, I have no control over it. The probability of the danger is low, but it is sufficiently bad even in mild cases that I do not want to take any chances.